ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Glad to see they are out again sampling the atmosphere north of Dorian this morning, hopefully some of these will make it to the 06z runs.

[Kingarabian]

The CMC isn't one of the best models out there but it still shows a landfall. All Florida east coast residents should remain prepared no matter what.

[KWT]

Long term average still on roughly 280 degrees. Still moving at a decent rate as well, we need to see where a slowdown occurs.

Abaco in for a rough morning.

[Bocadude85]

Glad to see they are out again sampling the atmosphere north of Dorian this morning, hopefully some of these will make it to the 06z runs.

Yes will be interesting to see if the 06z runs shift a little more west.

[Blown Away]

Latest...Still due W with slight S component or wobble in last few frames.

[Airboy]

Gonzo Is sampling the ridge right now, it possible to draw any conclusions from the data they are finding compared to the models?

I'm attempting to load it...not loading on my phone...

I don't that the intresting data is, I see 1016 mb surface levels on the north edge of the sampling, and around 1012-1013 on the south edge, but not sure that is the intresting part or if it's other data is that is the intressting stuff.

[STRiZZY]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1168068156180615168




Josh just moved south.

[Bocadude85]

https://i.imgur.com/7mutMVK.gif
Latest...Still due W with slight S component or wobble in last few frames.

Dorian about to cross 76 west a little ahead of schedule

[Chris90]

I really hope Josh doesn't become the Tim Samaras of hurricane chasing. I mean, I know these chasers know what they're doing, but actively trying to record the hurricane while in the Bahamas seems a little too risky. The storm surge risks just seem greater as opposed to somewhere like one of the islands of the Antilles. Isn't pretty much the entirety of the Bahamas fairly flat and not much above sea level?

[STRiZZY]

I really hope Josh doesn't become the Tim Samaras of hurricane chasing. I mean, I know these chasers know what they're doing, but actively trying to record the hurricane while in the Bahamas seems a little too risky. The storm surge risks just seem greater as opposed to somewhere like one of the islands of the Antilles. Isn't pretty much the entirety of the Bahamas fairly flat and not much above sea level?

Yeah I'm always afraid for him but he's at a designated shelter now.

Without a doubt he puts his life in extreme risk every time. I remember Patricia was bad, the family in the room next him lost their roof. Near miss.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1168068893455409152

[TheProfessor]

Dorian's bouncing up and down again and is getting uncomfortably close to the Bahamas.

[STRiZZY]

Dorian's bouncing up and down again and is getting uncomfortably close to the Bahamas.

Yeah I noticed the wobbles there, one after another.

[KWT]

https://i.imgur.com/7mutMVK.gif
Latest...Still due W with slight S component or wobble in last few frames.

Dorian about to cross 76 west a little ahead of schedule

Yep, I think thats the biggest take away really at the moment from the track.

Still wobbling around, track has been more due west in the last hour or so but its still wobbling around a 280 mean track. Small wobbles now key for where the eye makes landfall (barring a large northward sprint, it should happen.

[Bocadude85]

I really hope Josh doesn't become the Tim Samaras of hurricane chasing. I mean, I know these chasers know what they're doing, but actively trying to record the hurricane while in the Bahamas seems a little too risky. The storm surge risks just seem greater as opposed to somewhere like one of the islands of the Antilles. Isn't pretty much the entirety of the Bahamas fairly flat and not much above sea level?

Great Abaco has some elevation, highest point is about 130ft absl, definitely surge prone but areas high enough to avoid surge.

[Shell Mound]

I really hope Josh doesn't become the Tim Samaras of hurricane chasing. I mean, I know these chasers know what they're doing, but actively trying to record the hurricane while in the Bahamas seems a little too risky. The storm surge risks just seem greater as opposed to somewhere like one of the islands of the Antilles. Isn't pretty much the entirety of the Bahamas fairly flat and not much above sea level?

Yes, and given the bathymetry, fetch, and slow forward speed of DORIAN, I would anticipate very large waves and considerable flooding, on top of the surge. Fortunately, as others have mentioned, there are elevated locations on the islands, including the Abaco chain. Based on current satellite trends and the conducive environment, DORIAN is likely to be deepening as it makes landfall on the Abaco Islands, and thus will almost certainly attain Cat-5 status within the next several hours. The destruction is going to be unimaginable, given the intensity and movement.

[Hurrilurker]

I doubt whatever they're designating as a shelter is rated for a direct Cat 4/5 hit. Lot of times they just use schools and such which are vulnerable.

[Blown Away]

I'm thinking at 5am the NHC is going to move the track westward coming real close to Florida and maybe some stronger language about possible landfall if westward trend continues. Thoughts?

[STRiZZY]

I doubt whatever they're designating as a shelter is rated for a direct Cat 4/5 hit. Lot of times they just use schools and such which are vulnerable.

Most of the structures there are solid concrete.
He mentioned that after every storm he's been through there, hes always amazed how little damage there is compared to other locations.
I guess we'll find out how sound they really are.

[Chris90]

ahh, ok, thanks for the info both of you. I'm glad he's in a designated shelter. I don't keep up with twitter, so I really only see what ya'll post on here from there.
Hopefully he and everyone else in the Bahamas stay safe. They've really been going through it these past few years with Joaquin, Matthew, Irma, now Dorian.

[STRiZZY]

I'm thinking at 5am the NHC is going to move the track westward coming real close to Florida and maybe some stronger language about possible landfall if westward trend continues. Thoughts?

I think it will come a smidgen westward. Probably not enough to freak people out.

If the Euro/Ukie ensembles had more members getting closer/landfall than I'd say a bigger shift.