ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/7mutMVK.gif
Latest...Still due W with slight S component or wobble in last few frames.

Would you mind sharing the link to these closeups with lat/long lines? TIA

[sikkar]

Getting more intense by the minute, hopefully the cam holds.
https://www.abacoinn.com/

[GCANE]

Latest UL Conditons
Tracking into Anti-cyclone
Weak UL Ridge to the SE

[Bocadude85]

I'm thinking at 5am the NHC is going to move the track westward coming real close to Florida and maybe some stronger language about possible landfall if westward trend continues. Thoughts?

Maybe a touch west, I’d assume they extend the TS watch northwards and maybe upgrade the current TS watch to a warning.

[GCANE]

Latest steering anaylsis from CIMSS

[senorpepr]

TEAL 72, the next low-level recon mission, is wheels up from Keesler.

[northjaxpro]

Well Good Morning everyone.

Well I took a power nap for a couple of hours as you all were up watching the 00Z EURO run come our. I awakened to see a BIG shift west compared to the previous run! WOW!

So , it izs ow pretty apparent that Dorian is going to.get dangerously close to the Florida East Coast. It is simply an ossue as to how strong the ridge will be and if that shortwa e can weaken that ride enough to.pull it north and ortheast later in the week.

No doubt hurricane watch and warnings must go up at 5 a.m.by the NHC for the Florida East Coast

This is giving me flashbacks of Hurricane David during Labor Day weekend 1979. David turned just as it approached the SE Florida Coast, and moved due north right along and parallel the Florida East Coast, actually making landfall inWest Palm Beach briefly, before moving only 35 miles just off shore JAX and making landfall.up at Tybee Island GA near Savannah.
Davud gave us a brushing as a Cat 1.

Dorian would be no less than a powerful Cat 3 at the very least , or passing by here as Cat 4.at ths time he reaches 30 degrees Latitude. WOW! The impacts would obviously be more substantial foe sure.

Well. I hope everyone, including yours truly, has reviewed over their necessary preps or last.minute preps for this monster storm.as it approaches later in a couple of days.

All it would take is for one more west shift of the models and Dorian will likely make landfall so.ewhere alongbthe coast. That is how close this monster will be on the Florida East Coast.

CMC latest run at 00Z shows.Dorian making.landfall in South Florida and rifing up all the eay north which wold be catastrophic if that verified.

[sikkar]

TEAL 72, the next low-level recon mission, is wheels up from Keesler.

Any way to track it like we do with flightaware?

[senorpepr]

TEAL 72, the next low-level recon mission, is wheels up from Keesler.

Any way to track it like we do with flightaware?

Military aircraft are often blocked on sites like flightaware. However, you can see the data, in near real-time, on various sites like https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ and http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[sikkar]

TEAL 72, the next low-level recon mission, is wheels up from Keesler.

Any way to track it like we do with flightaware?

Military aircraft are often blocked on sites like flightaware. However, you can see the data, in near real-time, on various sites like https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ and http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

Thank you sir! That's exactly what I needed.

[STRiZZY]

Latest UL Conditons
Tracking into Anti-cyclone
Weak UL Ridge to the SE

https://i.imgur.com/UvdGe2w.png

Dorian should continue to strengthen then correct? Or at least maintain intensity?

[Bocadude85]

Tropical storm watch issued for Broward and tropical storm warning replaces the current watch area

[DestinHurricane]

"There have been some higher surface
wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based
on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent
strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind
reductions."

[STRiZZY]

Wow they significantly slowed the pace of Dorian down with this 5am advisory.

[GCANE]

Just checked the 00Z runs.
Global models are way off on intensity initializations.
Hurricane models much better.

Hate to say it JAX, not looking good for you.

[bahamaswx]

I really hope Josh doesn't become the Tim Samaras of hurricane chasing. I mean, I know these chasers know what they're doing, but actively trying to record the hurricane while in the Bahamas seems a little too risky. The storm surge risks just seem greater as opposed to somewhere like one of the islands of the Antilles. Isn't pretty much the entirety of the Bahamas fairly flat and not much above sea level?

Great Abaco has some elevation, highest point is about 130ft absl, definitely surge prone but areas high enough to avoid surge.

Probably 90-95% of the Abacos is less than 30ft in elevation, and the larger hills aren’t typically heavily developed. Wherever he is, it’s almost certainly not very high up.

[STRiZZY]

I really hope Josh doesn't become the Tim Samaras of hurricane chasing. I mean, I know these chasers know what they're doing, but actively trying to record the hurricane while in the Bahamas seems a little too risky. The storm surge risks just seem greater as opposed to somewhere like one of the islands of the Antilles. Isn't pretty much the entirety of the Bahamas fairly flat and not much above sea level?

Great Abaco has some elevation, highest point is about 130ft absl, definitely surge prone but areas high enough to avoid surge.

Probably 90-95% of the Abacos is less than 30ft in elevation, and the larger hills aren’t typically heavily developed. Wherever he is, it’s almost certainly not very high up.

He already said he moved to a designated shelter and storm surge wont be an issue at his current location.

[northjaxpro]

So much uncertainty remsins after viewing the 5 a.m. Advisory package.

Dorian will not cross the 30 degrees Latitude point until sometime late Wednesday night at the earliest as it is forecast currently.
This is going to potentially be the storm of the ages for our region here folks and tbis is as serious as I can put this situation at the moment.

[abajan]

A few minutes ago, I saw a meteorologist on ABC state the winds are 155 mph. Not sure where he got that info because I don't see any updates on the NHC site. (With the pressure down to 937 mb he could well be right.)

[GCANE]

So much uncertainty remsins after viewing the 5 a.m. Advisory package.

Dorian will not cross the 30 degrees Latitude point until sometime late Wednesday night at the earliest as it is forecast currently.
This is going to potentially be the storm of the ages for our region here folks and tbis is nit an exaggeration!!

Hope everything goes well for you my friend. You have my thoughts and prayers. Stay safe.