ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[STRiZZY]

A few minutes ago, I saw a meteorologist on ABC state the winds are 155 mph. Not sure where he got that info because I don't see any updates on the NHC site.

Most likely he/she misspoke. NHC still has it at 150pmh.

[abajan]

A few minutes ago, I saw a meteorologist on ABC state the winds are 155 mph. Not sure where he got that info because I don't see any updates on the NHC site.

Most likely he/she misspoke. NHC still has it at 150pmh.

The text on the screen showed 155 mph too. But you're right - there's no update on the NHC site. What has me curious is why the winds haven't responded to the pressure drops. Minimum central pressure is now down to 934 mb and the winds are still what they were when it was 945 mb 12 hours ago.

[STRiZZY]

Per NHC

since it (Dorian) is forecast to move quite slowly
over the shallow waters of the northwesternnmost Bahamas through
Monday, this would likely result in less available oceanic heat
content. Therefore, a very slow weakening is anticipated to
commence after 12 hours or so.


In comparison to its earlier runs, the new ECMWF
track forecast takes the system farther to the west during the next
couple of days, and is the southwestern most model through 48 hours.
As a result, the official track forecast has been shifted a little
west during that time frame.

Although
the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not
focus on the exact track since a Florida landfall is still a
distinct possibility.

[STRiZZY]

A few minutes ago, I saw a meteorologist on ABC state the winds are 155 mph. Not sure where he got that info because I don't see any updates on the NHC site.

Most likely he/she misspoke. NHC still has it at 150pmh.

The text on the screen showed 155 mph too. But you're right - there's no update on the NHC site. What has me curious is why the winds haven't responded to the pressure drops. Minimum central pressure is now down to 937 mb and the winds are still what they were when it was 945 mb 12 hours ago.

True, probably made the mistake when he/she was preparing the graphics for the report and slipped his/her mind.

Yeah I think everyone is a little curious that the winds haven't increased.

[GCANE]

Per NHC

since it (Dorian) is forecast to move quite slowly
over the shallow waters of the northwesternnmost Bahamas through
Monday, this would likely result in less available oceanic heat
content. Therefore, a very slow weakening is anticipated to
commence after 12 hours or so.


In comparison to its earlier runs, the new ECMWF
track forecast takes the system farther to the west during the next
couple of days, and is the southwestern most model through 48 hours.
As a result, the official track forecast has been shifted a little
west during that time frame.

Although
the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not
focus on the exact track since a Florida landfall is still a
distinct possibility.

Its gulping in tons of high CAPE air from the SE and massive amounts of high TPW air from the GOM.
Wait until it hits the Gulf Stream.

[abajan]

Most likely he/she misspoke. NHC still has it at 150pmh.

The text on the screen showed 155 mph too. But you're right - there's no update on the NHC site. What has me curious is why the winds haven't responded to the pressure drops. Minimum central pressure is now down to 937 mb and the winds are still what they were when it was 945 mb 12 hours ago.

True, probably made the mistake when he/she was preparing the graphics for the report and slipped his/her mind.

Yeah I think everyone is a little curious that the winds haven't increased.

In fact, the central pressure's even lower than I thought. It's actually stated as 934 mb in the advisory. (I've edited my comment accordingly.)

[Airboy]

A few minutes ago, I saw a meteorologist on ABC state the winds are 155 mph. Not sure where he got that info because I don't see any updates on the NHC site.

Most likely he/she misspoke. NHC still has it at 150pmh.

The text on the screen showed 155 mph too. But you're right - there's no update on the NHC site. What has me curious is why the winds haven't responded to the pressure drops. Minimum central pressure is now down to 934 mb and the winds are still what they were when it was 945 mb 12 hours ago.

They had some higher wind readig but did not trust them. I think NHC just like to adjust things in small steps, both tracks and wind speeds.

[GCANE]

Formidable on radar.

No signs of any EWRC on set.

Two feeder bands pointing to the Straits / GOM.
An almost unlimited amount of TPW air in the east GOM and its flowing thru the straits into Dorian.

[DelrayDude]

Just checked the 00Z runs.
Global models are way off on intensity initializations.
Hurricane models much better.

Hate to say it JAX, not looking good for you.

Oh great! How could this happen. The suspense is killing me.

[northjaxpro]

Just checked the 00Z runs.
Global models are way off on intensity initializations.
Hurricane models much better.

Hate to say it JAX, not looking good for you.

Yesh GCANE, I am REALLY ON THE EDGE dealing with the prospects of this monster storm.
Yeah I have so much still to do with preps today here at my home. Needless to say, it is a rather sttessful time for yours truly.

[GCANE]

Just checked 250mb winds.
ULL just broke down.
Ridge to the north is really pushing down on Dorian now.
Anti-cyclone looks stronger.
Stay tuned.

[Blown Away]

Latest... No slowing down and still due west... Track appears to be in line with 00z Euro so far...

[catskillfire51]

Just checked 250mb winds.
ULL just broke down.
Ridge to the north is really pushing down on Dorian now.
Anti-cyclone looks stronger.
Stay tuned.

Images or site you’re using?

[GCANE]

Just checked the 00Z runs.
Global models are way off on intensity initializations.
Hurricane models much better.

Hate to say it JAX, not looking good for you.

Yesh GCANE, I am REALLY ON THE EDGE dealing with the prospects of this monster storm.
Yeah I have so much still to do with preps today here at my home. Needless to say, it is a rather sttessful time for yours truly.

At least time is on your side. How far are you from the coast?

[GCANE]

Just checked 250mb winds.
ULL just broke down.
Ridge to the north is really pushing down on Dorian now.
Anti-cyclone looks stronger.
Stay tuned.

Images or site you’re using?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 705,26.274

[southerngale]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1168095182279139328

[northjaxpro]

Just checked 250mb winds.
ULL just broke down.
Ridge to the north is really pushing down on Dorian now.
Anti-cyclone looks stronger.
Stay tuned.

Just as I suspected, the ridge north of Dorian is stronger than initially thought. 850 mb steering analysis last night showed that the ridge axis extended west all the way into the North Centra GOM. This explained the ULL west of Dorian contunued west .motion. The ULL was forecasted to droo south.over Cuba 36 hours ago. That is telling to me tight there about the strength of the ridge north of Dorian.

[Canelaw99]

I must say, I’m a bit surprised Dade didn’t get a TS watch at 5am. I know watches/warnings may be warranted later, per NHC, but this westerly movement is disconcerting to say the least.

[tx2005]

Just checked 250mb winds.
ULL just broke down.
Ridge to the north is really pushing down on Dorian now.
Anti-cyclone looks stronger.
Stay tuned.

Just as I suspected, the ridge north of Dorian is stronger than initially thought. 850 mb steering analysis last night showed that the ridge axis extended west all the way into the North Centra GOM. This explained the ULL west of Dorian contunued west .motion. The ULL was forecasted to droo south.over Cuba 36 hours ago. That is telling to me tight there about the strength of the ridge north of Dorian.

Can anybody explain in simple terms what this could mean for Dorian's future?

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1168069126838992896