nvest 90W is now a TD (JMA) or TS Fourteen-W (JTWC) Invest 91W is now TD (former TS) Kajiki (JMA) or TD Sixteen-W (JTWC) Invest 92W is STS Lingling (Fifteen-W)
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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N 134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. AMSI AND A 310045Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC SURROUND BY DENSE OVERCAST AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A 310012Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING SURROUNDED BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VWS, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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WWJP27 RJTD 310600 WARNING AND SUMMARY 310600. WARNING VALID 010600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 07N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY.
Three TDs in the WPAC, well at least there's something I guess
ABPW10 PGTW 311000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/311000ZAUG2019-010600ZSEP2019// RMKS/ (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N 134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. AMSI SHOWS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC SURROUND BY DENSE OVERCAST AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A 310808Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE LLC TO BE CONSOLIDATING WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN. A 310012Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING SURROUNDED BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VWS, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTPN22 PGTW 311930 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311851Z AUG 19// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 311900)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 131.4E TO 15.8N 125.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 130.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 130.7E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO CITY, THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AMPLE FLARING CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE (10- 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO FORMATIVE RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWEST ALONG THE PHILIPPINE COAST, HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND UKMO DELAY THE ONSET OF 25 KNOT WINDS UNTIL CLOSER TO THE 48 HOUR MARK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 011930Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.3E.// NNNN
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories. Opinions expressed are mine alone.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 129.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 296 NM NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. AMSI, ALONG WITH A 010048Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. A 010047Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS SEPARATED FROM THE LLCC TO THE EAST. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY; HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE INTENSIFICATION, WITH 92W POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA ANYTIME IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
<Analysis at 12 UTC, 1 September> Scale - Intensity - TD Center position N13°25' (13.4°) E127°55' (127.9°) Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (14 kt) Central pressure 1002 hPa Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt) Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories. Opinions expressed are mine alone.
TS 1913 (Lingling) Issued at 01:30 UTC, 2 September 2019
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 2 September> Scale - Intensity - Center position N15°05' (15.1°) E126°05' (126.1°) Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt) Central pressure 1000 hPa Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt) Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt) ≥ 30 kt wind area NE 280 km (150 NM) SW 220 km (120 NM)
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories. Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Got a pair of clean ASCAT hits. JMA's 35 kt might be right on the money. Still rather asymmetrical, which is to be expected with all the low pressures associated with 91W and the monsoon trough in the South China Sea. Not much of a pressure gradient on that side of the system right now because of that.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories. Opinions expressed are mine alone.
We have a live one. Looks to be consolidating rather quickly. Could easily be a typhoon within 24 hours.
Also, could either the thread authors or a moderator update all the corresponding thread titles that need to be updated? Many of the currently active invests/systems are at least RSMC depressions, and this one is named.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories. Opinions expressed are mine alone.