ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

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[jhpigott]

Dorian is gradually slowing down. 7.25 kts the past 4 hrs, 8.55 kts the previous 4 hrs. Still nothing to indicate any impact to Florida by the core. NC may be brushed by hurricane force winds, at least in gusts.

wxman57 - based upon current trends, do you think NE PBC could experience conditions similar to what we experienced with Matthew?

[BlowHard]

Just as I suspected, the ridge north of Dorian is stronger than initially thought. 850 mb steering analysis last night showed that the ridge axis extended west all the way into the North Centra GOM. This explained the ULL west of Dorian contunued west .motion. The ULL was forecasted to droo south.over Cuba 36 hours ago. That is telling to me tight there about the strength of the ridge north of Dorian.

Can anybody explain in simple terms what this could mean for Dorian's future?

It means Dorian could well still slam into Florida. And TV mets have not been stressing this nearly enough IMHO.

I agree 100%. TV forecasters have been acting like it's all a done deal and it is far from that. They have misled a lot of people who should be evacuating as a precaution and now they may be stuck. Last night's recon showed that the ridge north of Dorian may not be weakening as much as expected.

[Airboy]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 927.9 mb (27.40 inHg)

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 150 kts (172.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 156 kts (179.5 mph)

[GCANE]

26.48N 76.28W
925.4mb

[USTropics]

Pressure dropping:

[Kat5]

I wouldn’t discount the chances of maybe seeing those Florida tropical storm warnings be elevated to hurricane warnings down the road. Stalling systems are not easy to predict and a simple wobble can throw a track off by miles. Right now the NHC track looks good to me, but as we have learned in the past a margin of error is there.

[hurricaneCW]

Enough NHC make the upgrade to Cat 5.

[FLeastcoast]

Can anybody explain in simple terms what this could mean for Dorian's future?

It means Dorian could well still slam into Florida. And TV mets have not been stressing this nearly enough IMHO.

I agree 100%. TV forecasters have been acting like it's all a done deal and it is far from that. They have misled a lot of people who should be evacuating as a precaution and now they may be stuck. Last night's recon showed that the ridge north of Dorian may not be weakening as much as expected.

My Mom lives in Hollywood only about 3 miles from the beach. Do you think I should tell her to leave? She keeps telling me that there is nothing to worry about since the city officials have not called for evacuation.

[GCANE]

Most Cat 5 winds were flagged except one.

[HurricaneFrances04]

It means Dorian could well still slam into Florida. And TV mets have not been stressing this nearly enough IMHO.

I agree 100%. TV forecasters have been acting like it's all a done deal and it is far from that. They have misled a lot of people who should be evacuating as a precaution and now they may be stuck. Last night's recon showed that the ridge north of Dorian may not be weakening as much as expected.

My Mom lives in Hollywood only about 3 miles from the beach. Do you think I should tell her to leave? She keeps telling me that there is nothing to worry about since the city officials have not called for evacuation.

"city officials have not called for evacuation"

That is your best answer right there.

[wxman57]

Dorian is gradually slowing down. 7.25 kts the past 4 hrs, 8.55 kts the previous 4 hrs. Still nothing to indicate any impact to Florida by the core. NC may be brushed by hurricane force winds, at least in gusts.

wxman57 - based upon current trends, do you think NE PBC could experience conditions similar to what we experienced with Matthew?

Don't remember what Matthew produced there. I'm thinking you'll see winds in the 25-35 mph range (sustained).

[Kat5]

Most Cat 5 winds were flagged except one.

SFMR and shallow water readings, those two don’t get along too well.

[wxman57]

It means Dorian could well still slam into Florida. And TV mets have not been stressing this nearly enough IMHO.

I agree 100%. TV forecasters have been acting like it's all a done deal and it is far from that. They have misled a lot of people who should be evacuating as a precaution and now they may be stuck. Last night's recon showed that the ridge north of Dorian may not be weakening as much as expected.

My Mom lives in Hollywood only about 3 miles from the beach. Do you think I should tell her to leave? She keeps telling me that there is nothing to worry about since the city officials have not called for evacuation.

She should be fine there. Winds 20-30 mph. Very little tidal increase, maybe 1-2 ft. Dorian is going to slow down significantly this afternoon/evening then begin a slow turn to the NNW.

[GCANE]

Pretty much on track for the moment.
Supposed to start turning north later today.
We'll see.

[tolakram]

[wxman57]

Most Cat 5 winds were flagged except one.

SFMR and shallow water readings, those two don’t get along too well.

Pretty low pressure (925mb) and only an 11 nm wide eye should mean 135-140 kts. May be the beginnings of an ERC this morning.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Tropical storm force winds in the NW quadrant extend 90 miles northwest from the center. When Matthew made its closest approach to West Palm Beach, winds extended 120 miles northwest from the center.

[jhpigott]

Dorian is gradually slowing down. 7.25 kts the past 4 hrs, 8.55 kts the previous 4 hrs. Still nothing to indicate any impact to Florida by the core. NC may be brushed by hurricane force winds, at least in gusts.

wxman57 - based upon current trends, do you think NE PBC could experience conditions similar to what we experienced with Matthew?

Don't remember what Matthew produced there. I'm thinking you'll see winds in the 25-35 mph range (sustained).

Thanks for the feedback.

[BlowHard]

Dorian is gradually slowing down. 7.25 kts the past 4 hrs, 8.55 kts the previous 4 hrs. Still nothing to indicate any impact to Florida by the core. NC may be brushed by hurricane force winds, at least in gusts.

I usually take your posts as gospel but I gotta disagree this time around. I think many in Florida are reading your words and thinking it means that they will not get hit. I implore you to err on the side of caution. When I read people talking about how they don't see a storm surge yet, in a storm that is three days away, like it will be a non event, it gives me chills right down my spine.