ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Syx6sic]

Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES

[Bad_Hurricane]

Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES

[supercane4867]

No signs of EWC on the 07z pass. Just one intense inner core

[jhpigott]

Tropical storm force winds in the NW quadrant extend 90 miles northwest from the center. When Matthew made its closest approach to West Palm Beach, winds extended 120 miles northwest from the center.

I would imagine Dorian's wind field will expand on it's approach to the coast if it goes thru an ERC

[supercane4867]

Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES

Finally someone decided to pull the trigger lol

[hurricaneCW]

A well warranted upgrade.

[johngaltfla]

Now it's a Cat 5:

00
WTNT35 KNHC 011152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES

[northjaxpro]

Live visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=684&y=949

https://i.imgur.com/aJwIfik.png

WOW!! This image is worth a thousand words! I see NHC finally pulled the trigger to upgrade to Cat 5 status. Incredibke cyclone!

[ObsessedMiami]

Can anybody explain in simple terms what this could mean for Dorian's future?

It means Dorian could well still slam into Florida. And TV mets have not been stressing this nearly enough IMHO.

I agree 100%. TV forecasters have been acting like it's all a done deal and it is far from that. They have misled a lot of people who should be evacuating as a precaution and now they may be stuck. Last night's recon showed that the ridge north of Dorian may not be weakening as much as expected.

NHC also bet the house on this slowing down and turning, and bet early with yesterday’s rather (for them) large adjustment east at 2pm. We shall see today if the slowdown and turn happens when they think it will. 5pm should be interesting and, as always, I would not want to be in their shoes today.

[supercane4867]

CAT5 Hurricane Dorian

[wxman57]

Dorian is gradually slowing down. 7.25 kts the past 4 hrs, 8.55 kts the previous 4 hrs. Still nothing to indicate any impact to Florida by the core. NC may be brushed by hurricane force winds, at least in gusts.

I usually take your posts as gospel but I gotta disagree this time around. I think many in Florida are reading your words and thinking it means that they will not get hit. I implore you to err on the side of caution. When I read people talking about how they don't see a storm surge yet, in a storm that is three days away, like it will be a non event, it gives me chills right down my spine.

I didn't say people in south Florida shouldn't be prepared. They should be closely-monitoring Dorian's progress, have a supply of water stored and a week's worth of food on hand. Nothing to indicate a track into FLL-PBI area, though I know hurricanes occasionally misbehave. Dorian appears to be behaving.

[Syx6sic]

Tropical storm force winds in the NW quadrant extend 90 miles northwest from the center. When Matthew made its closest approach to West Palm Beach, winds extended 120 miles northwest from the center.

I would imagine Dorian's wind field will expand on it's approach to the coast if it goes thru an ERC

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which just penetrated
the eye of Dorian indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is
now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km). Elbow Cay in the Abaco Islands just reported winds
of 35 mph (56 km/h)

The minimum central pressure just measured by an Air Force plane was
927 mb (27.37 inches).

[chris_fit]

I didn't say people in south Florida shouldn't be prepared. They should be closely-monitoring Dorian's progress, have a supply of water stored and a week's worth of food on hand. Nothing to indicate a track into FLL-PBI area, though I know hurricanes occasionally misbehave. Dorian appears to be behaving.

Just to add though... Tell that to Hispaniola and Puerto Rico that were expecting him - Did not behave then. Granted he was harder to forecast then. But, it does show he has a history of misbehaving!

[xironman]

No signs of EWC on the 07z pass. Just one intense inner core

No real second maxima on the winds either.

[Kat5]

Heading out to do some surfing, hope everyone stays safe and be aware of any possible drastic changes that may occur.

[mrbagyo]

We'll probably see some spectacular stadium effect footage from the hurricane chasers in the Bahamas. Daytime landfall + clear eye.

No signs of EWC on the 07z pass. Just one intense inner core

[img]https://i.imgur.com/NXAHfpE.jpg[/ig]

That thick eyewall reminds me of Irma before slamming into Barbuda

[robbielyn]

i think there should be voluntary evacs on the east coast. Mets should definitely be honest and say”We think it’s going to stay off our coast because of current thinking. Here is the current thinking. Then tell them the impacts on the coast even though eye stays offshore. Then show video of cat 4 almost 5 michael and it’s devastation to really alert people of what a cat 5 can do and then say, Current thinking is just that, current thinking. Folks just because it’s forecasted offshore doesn’t mean it’s not coming on shore. It is too close to call. If u feel like u could be in danger, then go to a place of safety. It’s not worth taking a chance with your life or your family’s life. We don’t want to overhype it yet we don’t want to underestimate the potential danger either.

Some people would listen to that and head out. others would want to wait to see exactly what Dorian wants to do til it’s too late. it’s about communicating the severity of this situation. if they aren’t communicating that and all people know is the eye is staying offshore, people will go about their business and say, well it’s staying offshore so no big deal. Only TS warning that doesn’t sound bad. So obviously tv mets are erring on the side of it’s not coming onshore but not telling them what the impacts will be thereby minimizing the danger of this cat 5 storm.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1168131299174957058

[northjaxpro]

That is one impressive, intense inner core. There has been.no signs yet of an ERC .

[p1nheadlarry]

Twxitter can now rejoice (at the expense of the Bahamas however)