ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5441 Postby MrJames » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:46 am

6z GFS Ensembles

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5442 Postby hohnywx » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:46 am

Anyone have the 6z Euro yet? Apologies if I missed it posted.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5443 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:47 am

hohnywx wrote:Anyone have the 6z Euro yet? Apologies if I missed it posted.


It's about to start running
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5444 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:53 am

chris_fit wrote:
hohnywx wrote:Anyone have the 6z Euro yet? Apologies if I missed it posted.


It's about to start running



It's a hair north through 21 hours vs the 00z Euro
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5445 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:54 am

Right over central Grand Bahama Island at 27 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5446 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:57 am

SouthernBreeze wrote:I see Legacy GFS shows a 930 pressure at SC/NC line -
Questions: this would probably be Cat 2? and Is this a fairly reliable model for storm strength?


930 isnt Cat 2 more than likely
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5447 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:58 am

chris_fit wrote:
chris_fit wrote:
hohnywx wrote:Anyone have the 6z Euro yet? Apologies if I missed it posted.


It's about to start running



It's a hair north through 21 hours vs the 00z Euro


Yes, it’s maybe a couple miles N of 00z, 2-3 miles
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5448 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:01 am

Dorian drifting ever so slowly due W at 48 hours - this is West of the 00Z Run. This is way to comfort for anyone on E Coast of FL. Cat 5 just spinning a few miles off shore - just WOW.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5449 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:03 am

Can someone post the 06z Euro??
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5450 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:04 am

Turning N and crawling @ 54-57 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5451 Postby hohnywx » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:07 am

SFLcane wrote:Can someone post the 06z Euro??


It’s being posted right now. See above your post.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5452 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:09 am

Crossing 80W at below 29N - which is over a full degree less south than the 00Z
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5453 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:10 am

I think this is a decent shift W, especially in the 60-90 hour range
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5454 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:11 am

USTropics wrote:00z UKMET ensembles:
Image


Yes they shifted east some but many through Florida
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5455 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:13 am

chris_fit wrote:I think this is a decent shift W, especially in the 60-90 hour range


Can u give a summary compared to 00z?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5456 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:14 am

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1168134304364466176




Image
Last edited by USTropics on Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5457 Postby jhpigott » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:14 am

Blown Away wrote:
chris_fit wrote:I think this is a decent shift W, especially in the 60-90 hour range


Can u give a summary compared to 00z?


Any graphics? Closest point of approach to SEFL?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5458 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:14 am

06Z EURO:

Image


00Z EURO:

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5459 Postby ObsessedMiami » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:16 am

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:It is not a hard right turn, it will happen after stalling for over 24 hours.

You are right, of course. Thanks for the reminder. Cheers. Looking at the model runs, they aren’t times stamped so it’s easy to forget the time component
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5460 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:17 am

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1168134984609280003


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