ATL: DORIAN - Models

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5461 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:17 am

06z Euro is even closer to FL coast what 30-40 miles from that graphic? :eek:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5462 Postby hohnywx » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:18 am



Definitely looks closer...yikes
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5463 Postby kevin » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:19 am

That's a significant shift West compared to 00z. A lot of people have been saying this for a while, but one more of those shifts and we could be looking at a landfall. The 12z runs will be nailbiting.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5464 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:20 am

gatorcane wrote:
USTropics wrote:00z UKMET ensembles:
Image


Yes they shifted east some but many through Florida


Bumping to new page. Do they run these at 06Z?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5465 Postby Siker » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:24 am

gatorcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:


Yes they shifted east some but many through Florida


Bumping to new page. Do they run these at 06Z?


Yeah they do but it takes awhile. Probably come out around 9:30est.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5466 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:27 am

06 ICON is slightly west of 00Z and more NE of yesterday’s runs:

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5467 Postby DelrayDude » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:30 am

gatorcane wrote:06 ICON is slightly west of 00Z and more NE of yesterday’s runs:

https://i.postimg.cc/LsfPMPbz/icon-mslp-wind-seus-19.png

What direction is icon going at this point? Is it stalling?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5468 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:33 am

06Z ICON shows landfall near Stuart, FL
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5469 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:36 am

Another just 4 hours of sleep last night, waking up to not so great news :double:

According to the latest 06 Euro, hurricane force wind gusts for the Treasure Coast Tuesday late morning and early afternoon.

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5470 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:40 am

Looks like 60mph gusts for Eastern/coastal Palm Beach.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5471 Postby Tailspin » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:41 am

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5472 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:43 am

That is a noticeable enough shift by the 6Z Euro. The 0Z had the 60 mph gusts offshore of Palm Beach.

20 to 30 miles isn't a big difference 36 hours out, but it can mean very different conditions.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5473 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:49 am

Just a reminder, this thing is forecast to stall out for 1.5+ days on the Bahamas.... that would be 72 hours from now - Forecast error at 72 hours is over 100 miles..... Just Sayin'
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5474 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:55 am

12z TVCN shifted W again. Also the Clipper went from recurve to NW landfall, just says climatology favors a landfall over recurve now.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5475 Postby kevin » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:59 am

I'm hoping for an OTS track, but I'm getting a bit nervous tbh. Can't imagine what people in the region and officials are going through right now, still so much uncertainty at this point about the possibility of a landfall. No matter what happens, I think this will be a storm I and most other people on this forum will remember for quite a few years, because of its erratic behavior and constant windshield wiping by models, especially a few days ago.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5476 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:02 am

06z Euro loop, shows hurricane force winds in gusts along the coast from Jupiter on north.

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5477 Postby seahawkjd » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:04 am

What does the 6Z Euro do in relation to NC?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5478 Postby drewschmaltz » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:06 am

kevin wrote:I'm hoping for an OTS track, but I'm getting a bit nervous tbh. Can't imagine what people in the region and officials are going through right now, still so much uncertainty at this point about the possibility of a landfall. No matter what happens, I think this will be a storm I and most other people on this forum will remember for quite a few years, because of its erratic behavior and constant windshield wiping by models, especially a few days ago.


Hate to be the sensitive guy in the group but... My friends in Hope Town Bahamas would be confused by "OTS". The next 48 hours will change their lives. And have the models really moved that much? Or, is the downstream effect just greater because of the shape of the US coastline VS forecasted track.?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5479 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:12 am



Hmmm, 06z Euro goes inland over GA/SC vs sharp turn, usually means sensing higher pressure.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5480 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:14 am

Blown Away wrote:


Hmmm, 06z Euro goes inland over GA/SC vs sharp turn, usually means sensing higher pressure.


It's an individual ensemble track.
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