ATL: DORIAN - Models

[gatorcane]

I thought the UKMET ensembles would have shifted east. I count 40% or so with landfall in metro SE Florida. They are used by NHC because they have mentioned them in a prior discussion for Dorian.

[AutoPenalti]

NAM is stalled, not sure if I want to believe this run quite yet.


Although the new data is already in here, it will take 10-20 mile difference.

[chris_fit]

Pretty much every model shows the stall - between 24 and 60+ hours - what's there not to buy?

[chris_fit]

Maybe a Pro can chime in here....

I don't think ANY model predicted Dorian to get this strong at this location - What bearing does that have on track? Any merit to this "pumping the ridge" theory?

[chris_fit]

NAM at 75hrs - Safely E of FL

[dukeblue219]

NAM at 75hrs - Safely E of FL

https://i.imgur.com/yysO3Ko.png

That's awfully far out in time to be looking at the NAM though...

[storm4u]

The NAM is terrible with tropical systems

NAM at 75hrs - Safely E of FL

https://i.imgur.com/yysO3Ko.png

[Hurricaneman]

Maybe a Pro can chime in here....

I don't think ANY model predicted Dorian to get this strong at this location - What bearing does that have on track? Any merit to this "pumping the ridge" theory?

The HWRF is the only model that was even close and even it underestimated this

[CronkPSU]

not sure that really qualifies as safely east of Florida....that is still mighty mighty close

[norva13x]

I think these models are still underestimating the ridge.

[Evil Jeremy]

NAM at 75hrs - Safely E of FL

https://i.imgur.com/yysO3Ko.png

If were gonna reference the NAM, at least point out that throughout the run, it's again nudged west and closer to Florida. Context is everything.

[jasons2k]

I really hope this doesn't end up as Irma II (i.e., going further west than forecast), except this time hitting SE FL

[kevin]

I'm hoping for an OTS track, but I'm getting a bit nervous tbh. Can't imagine what people in the region and officials are going through right now, still so much uncertainty at this point about the possibility of a landfall. No matter what happens, I think this will be a storm I and most other people on this forum will remember for quite a few years, because of its erratic behavior and constant windshield wiping by models, especially a few days ago.

Hate to be the sensitive guy in the group but... My friends in Hope Town Bahamas would be confused by "OTS". The next 48 hours will change their lives. And have the models really moved that much? Or, is the downstream effect just greater because of the shape of the US coastline VS forecasted track.?

Of course you're right. All this talk about a possible Florida landfall and I forgot to mention that many areas in the Bahamas are about to experience an unprecented natural disaster. I hope everyone has been able to find some sort of shelter.

[Hurricaneman]

Honestly I think the models aren’t very good at showing historically strong hurricanes pumping up ridges like with Michael, Irma and I can even go back as far as Isabel

[p1nheadlarry]

Maybe a Pro can chime in here....

I don't think ANY model predicted Dorian to get this strong at this location - What bearing does that have on track? Any merit to this "pumping the ridge" theory?

Two thing that work out in the ridge favor: a) negative vorticity advection as the storm tracks west and negative vort tendency and b) latent heat release from the outflow that annihilates potential vorticity.

[b0tzy29]

12Z ICON is rolling

[tpinnola]

These subtle shifts west are absolutely terrifying.





https://ibb.co/HPkfsTm

[Blizzard96x]

ICON not getting as far west through 33!

[b0tzy29]

If 12Z EURO start moving West, start praying for the folks of South East Florida. This thing is 913 MB... bai god.

[Hurricaneman]

If 12Z EURO start moving West, start praying for the folks of South East Florida. This thing is 913 MB... bai god.

910 according to recon