ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Blinhart]

Now that the computers can put in the correct wind speed of 180 MPH and pressure of 910 mb, maybe they they will get a better understanding of what he is going to do.

[boca]

All the models show this turning meanwhile it’s still moving west.

[norva13x]

one thing is for certain if we want to believe the models.. we better see a north of west motion... something to indicate the models are right.... like right now..

I agree, this is what worries me most about these model runs, they think Dorian should be going wnw every time but he doesn't. It would likely affect everything that happens in the rest of the run.

[AutoPenalti]

If GFS were to verify, Dorian would need to start moving WNW right now...

[CFLHurricane]

All the models show this turning meanwhile it’s still moving west.

Dorian’s turn is going to be as shockingly late as a missed period in a bad relationship.

[chris_fit]

cmc trend 42

[Jevo]

12z UKMet big shift east.

https://i.imgur.com/rroYsYN.gif

Thank goodness!!!

All models now are off florida

Heh you mean the tiny forecast plot dot associated with a Category 5 hurricane hundreds of miles wide is off Florida.. Hurry up and put that flame suit on!!

[SEASON_CANCELED]

All the models show this turning meanwhile it’s still moving west.

Dorian’s turn is going to be as shockingly late as a missed period in a bad relationship.

Lol

[SEASON_CANCELED]

12z UKMet big shift east.

https://i.imgur.com/rroYsYN.gif

Thank goodness!!!

All models now are off florida

Heh you mean the tiny forecast plot dot associated with a Category 5 hurricane hundreds of miles wide is off Florida.. Hurry up and put that flame suit on!!

It is a good thing my friend

[norva13x]

The later that turn the worst for Florida. These model runs are good seeing a more east trend but I do not feel comfortable yet since they don't even seem to grasp his current motion.

[La Sirena]

The later that turn the worst for Florida. These model runs are good seeing a more east trend but I do not feel comfortable yet since they don't even seem to grasp his current motion.

Really haven’t since prior to Hispaniola.

[Blizzard96x]

CMC continues the 12z trend of Dorian staying further east.

[LarryWx]

Add the 12Z CMC to list of 12Z runs EAST of respective earlier runs. So, ICON, GFS, Legacy, CMC, and UKMET all east of prior run. 5 out of 5 so far fwiw. But of course we’ll need to see the storm turn in a timely fashion for those to verify.
Anyway, PERHAPS the 6Z consensus will turn out to be the furthest west?? At least there’s a chance.

[Hurricaneman]

Has anyone noticed that when new data from the upper air missions happen every model shifts farther west and some significantly

[MrJames]

HWRF is running

[KWT]

one thing is for certain if we want to believe the models.. we better see a north of west motion... something to indicate the models are right.... like right now..

It's not just the motion, it's the forward speed. It should have slowed a few hours ago but it's still moving at a similar pace as always, suggesting steering currents still have some punch left over.

[LarryWx]

Has anyone noticed that when new data from the upper air missions happen every model shifts farther west and some significantly

When was the last upper air mission? 0Z?

[kevin]

Does anyone have a comparison between what models predicted f.e. 24 hours ago, versus where Dorian actually is right now?

[CourierPR]

one thing is for certain if we want to believe the models.. we better see a north of west motion... something to indicate the models are right.... like right now..

I agree, this is what worries me most about these model runs, they think Dorian should be going wnw every time but he doesn't. It would likely affect everything that happens in the rest of the run.

I have begun to rely on the satellite eyeball model.

[ConvergenceZone]

Although you never say never, I do feel better now that most if not all of the models are now trending east of Florida.......I'd probably give it about a 5% chance of it actually hitting Florida at this point. That's a great thing!

I'm not evil, I don't want it to hit Florida, or any state for that matter... I love the State of Florida and a hurricane of this strength would just devastate it and the economy. It would be bad news for everyone....I just wish our good friends in the Bahamas could have been spared .....