ATL: DORIAN - Models

[CourierPR]

one thing is for certain if we want to believe the models.. we better see a north of west motion... something to indicate the models are right.... like right now..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

it's just barely north of due west motion. this link helps show it.

It looks due west to me.

[gatorcane]

That SW dip was not in the previous HMON run.

[supercane4867]

Erratic movement on 12z HMON...

[Ken711]

Erratic movement on 12z HMON...

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7aef4aeedaf1fa1ef0afd26fcfc2e5c08cfd07c1056fbcf930c05fe2d9f69e05.gif

WSW wobble.

[sma10]

That SW dip was not in the previous HMON run.

The HMONs 36-42 hr movement seems to have a sw vibe

[chris_fit]

[chris_fit]

HWRF Trending a little south through 45 hours

[NDG]

Through 45 hours HWRF is just a tad south of its previous 06z & 0z runs.

[chris_fit]

[BobHarlem]

Hmon making approach to Melbourne @ 66hours.

[tolakram]

Does anyone have a comparison between what models predicted f.e. 24 hours ago, versus where Dorian actually is right now?

On this page, the trends box: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/

Examples:

GFS


Euro


Canadian


UKMET

[chris_fit]

Does anyone have a comparison between what models predicted f.e. 24 hours ago, versus where Dorian actually is right now?

On this page, the trends box: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/

Examples:

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/zoBLOmq.png

Euro
https://i.imgur.com/x6KwCdh.png

Canadian
https://i.imgur.com/a8zsS5e.png

UKMET
https://i.imgur.com/bkNOrlF.png

Fantastic Post, thank you for this!

So basically... even if we average all these out - it's still cutting it WAY to close for FL

[hohnywx]

Does anyone have a comparison between what models predicted f.e. 24 hours ago, versus where Dorian actually is right now?

On this page, the trends box: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/

Examples:

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/zoBLOmq.png

Euro
https://i.imgur.com/x6KwCdh.png

Canadian
https://i.imgur.com/a8zsS5e.png

UKMET
https://i.imgur.com/bkNOrlF.png

Great post and tool. Thanks for posting. That Euro turn just looks so unrealistic.

[Blinhart]

About 5 miles south of the 5am Track.... Negligible maybe?

https://i.imgur.com/0oaU0kY.png

You actually need to a progression from the other points also to see how much further away it is pulling away from the track.

[BobHarlem]

Hmon just clips Cape Canaveral here. Good shift west this run. HWRF is offshore but shifted west and is also approaching canaveral (run not quite that far out though yet).

[NDG]

HWRF is not giving up on its forecasted track, through hr 57 is a tad S&W of its earlier 06z run, and S of its 0z run, making a run for Playa Linda-New Smyrna Beach area looks like.

[chris_fit]

[SFLcane]

That SW dip was not in the previous HMON run.

Not it was not Gatorcane looks like the ukmet.

[tpinnola]

Understandably the focus should be on the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, Carolinas, etc... but this would be a pretty big deal for us coastal New England folks.

[hohnywx]

So we have the global models with a small shift east and the tropical models with a small shift west. Meanwhile Dorian continues west and hasn’t slowed at all.