ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Didn't the 1935 storm have a sub 900 pressure? If so that one is still on its own unique footing but this one is close. Very high end and thankfully rare event.

Yep, officially 892mb, although it might have been lower based on anecdotal reports. It probably had winds over 200 mph too.

Maybe already discussed but where does this place Dorian's intensity within entire Atlantic basin records? I was assuming top 5.

[JtSmarts]

Didn't the 1935 storm have a sub 900 pressure? If so that one is still on its own unique footing but this one is close. Very high end and thankfully rare event.

Yep, officially 892mb, although it might have been lower based on anecdotal reports. It probably had winds over 200 mph too.

Maybe already discussed but where does this place Dorian's intensity within entire Atlantic basin records? I was assuming top 5.

Tied for number 2 in wind speed. Tied for #10 in pressure.

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1168244904130220032

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The only "good" news for the Bahamas is that Freeport, with over 50,000 people in its metropolitan area, is on the west end of Grand Bahama and not projected to get the worst of Dorian's winds (although they will get an extremely long period of being in the area of hurricane force winds, so only a very thin silver lining). Also, 70% of Bahamians live in Nassau (over 200,000 people), which is well away from the core of the storm. Hopefully the few people who live in the areas being hit evacuated well away.

Unfortunately, some didn't evacuate.

The bahamas is a former british colony.

Its a stretch to say they have adequate plans for this kind of stuff, the infrastructure and economy have been on the downside since 1979 and corruption is high.

They wouldnt have the capabilities or ships anyway

[SconnieCane]

With such a long duration as a 130kt+ storm, it's like Dorian is trying to single-handedly bring the NHEM ACE total back to the seasonal norm.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[ColdFusion]

 https://twitter.com/crabanddough/status/1168244278881128448

[sponger]

Mandatory evacuations just ordered for St. Johns County, including the entire cities of St. Augustine and St. Augustine Beach. Goes into effect tomorrow at 8 AM.

https://www.news4jax.com/weather/hurric ... -am-monday

Ironic I am close to A and F due to river. Basically a Cat 5 at high tide into Mayport would put 5 feet of water into the back of the neighborhood but I am still high and dry! Here is the map.

https://www.sjcemergencymanagement.com/ ... 208x11.pdf

[Highteeld]

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bs ... alwx_today

144 gusting to 173 now. unreal this thing is still communicating

[TheDreamTraveler]

https://twitter.com/crabanddough/status/1168244278881128448

It looks like a tornado went through there goddamn that sucks :<

[chaser1]

One thing for sure today is that its circulation has grown. We here in the Orlando area have been getting off and on showers coming off the Atlantic Ocean, very tropical outside.

https://i.imgur.com/Undc4Xz.gif

Yep, was just noticing that here in E. Longwood (little north of Orlando). Fast moving couple strong showers and then suddenly sunny again. Took a fast look at the vis satellite and was really surprised to see the expansion of Dorian's circulation become much more significant. I'm guessing that the Orlando area may well receive some good Tropical Storm force squalls early to mid Tuesday.

Hey neighbor, I'm by Bear Lake and SR 436 area in Forest City, I was just in Longwood Wekiva Springs picking up some Chinese Food

How goes it! Pretty close indeed. I'm off 17-92 and 434 so perhaps about 10-15 minutes ENE of you?
Nothing like Chinese for some pre-hurricane watch or post event comfort food LOL. Was thinking the same thing later for dinner

[CrazyC83]

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bs/guana-cay/IABACOGU2?cm_ven=localwx_today

144 gusting to 173 now. unreal this thing is still communicating

A pressure reading would be good too - I wonder if it has deepened more? I'd be tempted to go up to 165 kt or even 170 kt for the current intensity but the data is probably insufficient for that.

It's all academic though. Adding a few more knots enhances the record book, but the damage would be cataclysmic either way.

[sponger]

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bs/guana-cay/IABACOGU2?cm_ven=localwx_today

144 gusting to 173 now. unreal this thing is still communicating

Whoever made that gauge needs a medal and a contract to build all of them. Looks like they nailed today's forecast.

Major hurricane conditions likely. Windy. Thunderstorms likely, accompanied by heavy rainfall at times. Low 78F. S winds at 130 to 145 mph, decreasing to 40 to 60 mph.

[ronjon]

Are there any land weather stations in the region? I know they are likely mostly down but I remember in Irma we got excellent data from Barbuda verifying the fury.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bs ... /IABACOGU2

North at 139 with gusts to 168! Goodness!

North at 144 with gusts to 173 mph...how is that anenometer still functioning?

[tropicwatch]

There was a recon scheduled for now but I don't see it.

[JaxBeachFL]

I wonder if Hurricane watches will be expanded along the Florida coast soon?.

. They could be.posted later tonight by the 11:00 package, I would think maybe by 8;00, which would include Jacksonvile metro area.

I think we will see Warnings @ 5pm for Jax.

Duval County will also be announcing evac orders today at 5pm.

[Sanibel]

Treasure Cay Abaco just got wacked by a category 5 eyewall...

Marsh Harbor just had the south eyewall pass over it...

[chaser1]

I wonder if Hurricane watches will be expanded along the Florida coast soon?.

. They could be.posted later tonight by the 11:00 package, I would think maybe by 8;00, which would include Jacksonvile metro area.

I think we will see Warnings @ 5pm for Jax.

Duval County will also be announcing evac orders today at 5pm.

Immediate coast and along the St. Johns only right? There's no way they'd expect everyone east of I-95 to move inland (not unless there were a significant westward shift that is)

[sponger]

There was a recon scheduled for now but I don't see it.

The crew must have decided hell no.

[jlf7]

3-hr movement on my workstation. Toward 284.8 deg. Moved 17 nm = 5.7 kts or 6.5 mph. Still slowing down. Josh Morgerman will have an interesting story to tell at next April's NTWC in S. Padre.

I'm more nervous for Jim Edds who went to Elbow Cay, ground zero, just a narrow strip of corral land just a few feet above sea level off of the main land of Abaco.

Same - he was planning on taking a boat to a community center this morning for better shelter but it was too bad out to get on the water and he stayed put.

[WAcyclone]

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bs/guana-cay/IABACOGU2?cm_ven=localwx_today

144 gusting to 173 now. unreal this thing is still communicating

IABACOGU2 went offline six hours ago. Here is the direct link to that personal weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IABACOGU2