ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I've heard several reports from clients in the past 30 minutes that on a recent call with the NHC, they were told that Dorian is predicted to make landfall between West Palm Beach and Volusia. I think they misheard. I sent a note to a friend of mine at the NHC but haven't heard back. I see nothing to indicate such a track, unless you're following the HWRF, which has been all over the place with each run.

http://wxman57.com/images/models.JPG

This is coming from twitter

There is some sort of conspiracy going around that NHC is making up the north path to cause maximum destruction and make trump look bad.

Yes i am being serious, read comments on NHC posts.

obviously dont want to get into political debates but that people going off the rails on psycho unfounded conspiracy theories doesnt surprise me. anything to question a scientific agency

Well like i said earlier. Twitter is the biggest mistake mankind ever made. Not everyone should have a voice in matters like this.

Anyway. I am off the subject, i just wanted to let weatherman know the source so he can combat it

[psyclone]

It's a wobble north. We won't know if it's a trend for a few more hours.

Every wobble, every knot of motion counts when it's this close though.

And...because we're expecting a north turn any wobble to the north could be more than a wobble...it could be reflective of the actual turn beginning...so yeah...wobble watching really matters now..

[Meteorcane]

If any kind of WSW movement happens like some of the UKMET and Euro ensembles show, boy is that going to start freaking folks in SE Florida out. So far Dorian has behaved but he does have a track record...

The positive is that given how slow the motion is going to become, it takes an extended time of true wobbles in one direction to make a significant difference in track. Although there will almost certainly be wobbles at times more westerly than northerly, these can get cancelled out by periodic northerly wobbles.

[GCANE]

Eye's beginning to clear.
Picking up steam again.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

This is coming from twitter

There is some sort of conspiracy going around that NHC is making up the north path to cause maximum destruction and make trump look bad.

Yes i am being serious, read comments on NHC posts.

obviously dont want to get into political debates but that people going off the rails on psycho unfounded conspiracy theories doesnt surprise me. anything to question a scientific agency

Well like i said earlier. Twitter is the biggest mistake mankind ever made. Not everyone should have a voice in matters like this.

Anyway. I am off the subject, i just wanted to let weatherman know the source so he can combat it

couldnt agree more

[toad strangler]

It's a wobble north. We won't know if it's a trend for a few more hours.

Every wobble, every knot of motion counts when it's this close though.

And...because we're expecting a north turn any wobble to the north could be more than a wobble...it could be reflective of the actual turn beginning...so yeah...wobble watching really matters now..

A wobble spared portions of the Treasure Coast from a direct impact from Matthew

[mutley]

Just talked to the client again. They said the STATE meteorologist of Florida, whoever that is, is predicting the landfall, NOT the NHC.

Dang. I wonder what the state meteorologist sees? Or thinks they see?

[TexasF6]

Dorian looks to be bearing westward atm.













The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[SapphireSea]

It's a wobble north. We won't know if it's a trend for a few more hours.

Every wobble, every knot of motion counts when it's this close though.

And...because we're expecting a north turn any wobble to the north could be more than a wobble...it could be reflective of the actual turn beginning...so yeah...wobble watching really matters now..

More importantly, it means that the heights to the north are decreasing and ridging is weakening. Otherwise we should have seen the wsw motion. Every wobble also represents nearly 20 minutes of a movement not west equating to a slower forward speed. The stall is imminent.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

It's a wobble north. We won't know if it's a trend for a few more hours.

Every wobble, every knot of motion counts when it's this close though.

And...because we're expecting a north turn any wobble to the north could be more than a wobble...it could be reflective of the actual turn beginning...so yeah...wobble watching really matters now..

Its just wobbling. Models indicate a stall beforehand (which hasnt happened)

[hiflyer]

i guess no more G4 flights ?

They broke it again? grin

Looking at TPBI radar it definitely sliding a little more northerly at the moment.....last official obs I saw was 26.5 before Marsh Harbor

[abajan]

For those folks saying it wouldn't survive the Caribbean. Just wow

One person in particular comes readily to mind.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/SMF_SaltLifeC/status/1168245105452621824

[KWT]

Eye's beginning to clear.
Picking up steam again.

Doesn't look to have weakened much if at all, but the island strip is so thin most of the eye was still over water so its probably still getting a large amount of energy, providing it doesn't slow down too much.

[northjaxpro]

Dorian still moving West at 7 mph.

[Ian2401]

The 5am update this morning said at 5pm now Dorian should be at 77.1 W. Dorian right now as of 4:00Pm was at 77.3 W so dorian is currently faster than was forecast.

[Nimbus]

I've heard several reports from clients in the past 30 minutes that on a recent call with the NHC, they were told that Dorian is predicted to make landfall between West Palm Beach and Volusia. I think they misheard. I sent a note to a friend of mine at the NHC but haven't heard back. I see nothing to indicate such a track, unless you're following the HWRF, which has been all over the place with each run.

http://wxman57.com/images/models.JPG

unless nhc is going to bring it onshore at 5pm but that wouldn't seem reasonable based on the modeling at this point

Looked north of the official track gaining latitude with some west wobbles earlier.
Some new info?

[hipshot]

i guess no more G4 flights ?

They broke it again? grin

Looking at TPBI radar it definitely sliding a little more northerly at the moment.....last official obs I saw was 26.5 before Marsh Harbor

It's been at 26.5 forever, when I see an official latitude change I will believe it. I am in no danger where I am but I sure as hell wouldn't be hanging around
in the danger zone, I'd probably be in Denver by now.

[norva13x]

It's a wobble north. We won't know if it's a trend for a few more hours.

Every wobble, every knot of motion counts when it's this close though.

And...because we're expecting a north turn any wobble to the north could be more than a wobble...it could be reflective of the actual turn beginning...so yeah...wobble watching really matters now..

More importantly, it means that the heights to the north are decreasing and ridging is weakening. Otherwise we should have seen the wsw motion. Every wobble also represents nearly 20 minutes of a movement not west equating to a slower forward speed. The stall is imminent.

I imagine crossing over the Bahamas and it's interaction with land may have to do with the wobbles, it's been chugging west pretty steadily each update.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks likebits intensifying