ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

every turn starts as a wobble
but not all wobbles indicate the start of a turn
not sure I've ever watched a race @ 7mph with such interest..

[KWT]

One thing that has become really noticeable in the last 2hrs is how much the outflow has expanded to the north side of the system. I'm wondering whether that is a sign that the upper ridge is now starting to erode away and the storm is starting feeling the weakness to the north. We shall see though...

[tronbunny]

One thing that has become really noticeable in the last 2hrs is how much the outflow has expanded to the north side of the system. I'm wondering whether that is a sign that the upper ridge is now starting to erode away and the storm is starting feeling the weakness to the north. We shall see though...

I thought I saw this about 5 hours ago. I hope that the old saw that the storm "points" to where it goes next is reliable.

[leggy77]

The frightening part are the videos of the damage of Abacos are during the eye, most of the videos of showing damage it is not stormy or raining. The people loading up on tractors to find shelter better get there soon. The damage shown is just the half of it, the strongest part of the storm is about to hit.

https://twitter.com/julmisjames/status/ ... 13570?s=20

[stormsurf]

Would anyone know where to find what the peak winds would be for each city/county on NHC projected path? Thanks.

[birdwomn]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=truecolor

This shows the disturbance in the GOM as well.

[MacTavish]

Would anyone know where to find what the peak winds would be for each city/county on NHC projected path? Thanks.

Go to the NWS page for that city and click on to the hourly forecast. its on the upper right side. will give you an hourly graph.

[caneseddy]

Miami-Dade schools closed until Wednesda..announced by superintendent

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/BreakingNLive/status/1168260499902992385

[Maryellen46]

Miami-Dade schools closed until wednesday..announced by superintendent

Better to be safe than sorry.

[birdwomn]

Would anyone know where to find what the peak winds would be for each city/county on NHC projected path? Thanks.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... 0#contents

I think this is what you want.

[wxman57]

2hr movement toward 286 deg at 5.1 kts.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah, let's keep this thread politics free.

[Nimbus]

Just talked to the client again. They said the STATE meteorologist of Florida, whoever that is, is predicting the landfall, NOT the NHC.

Dang. I wonder what the state meteorologist sees? Or thinks they see?

Towns like St Augustine have low lying barrier island communities and with Hurricane watches and warnings some of those areas need to be evacuated for the surge alone..

Winds still might not exceed cat 1 there, but the surge could be very dangerous.

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1168264028910772224

[chaser1]

One thing that has become really noticeable in the last 2hrs is how much the outflow has expanded to the north side of the system. I'm wondering whether that is a sign that the upper ridge is now starting to erode away and the storm is starting feeling the weakness to the north. We shall see though...

I think there's some validity to that point. I don't really think that it'll stall for as long as projected. I could see a slow 290 motion commending over the next few hours

[DestinHurricane]

If it wobbles WSW anytime soon then it could bounce off the south coast of Grand Bahama and cause it to go into or get closer to Florida. Just a thought.

[KC7NEC]

https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1168264028910772224

Always side with safety.

That being said the NHC is in a lose-lose scenario. If they don't issue warnings and it does continue more west near the coast they will be yelled at. If they do issue warnings and it turns in time leaving only minor to very moderate storm conditions they get yelled at.

They can't win.

So go with Safety.

[Ken711]

2hr movement toward 286 deg at 5.1 kts.

Even a slight wnw is probably good to see.

[northjaxpro]

i guess no more G4 flights ?

They broke it again? grin

Looking at TPBI radar it definitely sliding a little more northerly at the moment.....last official obs I saw was 26.5 before Marsh Harbor

It's been at 26.5 forever, when I see an official latitude change I will believe it. I am in no danger where I am but I sure as hell wouldn't be hanging around
in the danger zone, I'd probably be in Denver by now.

Dorian is still right at 26.5 Latitude and has been that way for much of the afternoon. It still moving generally westward at 7.mph