ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Ukmet has been all over the place. The ensembles map keeps calling for this W or WSW movement and it hasn't happened run after run...

its been heading west, how much more west can west be?

i dont know why but i keep getting a hunch of it going further west than anticipated. very much dont want that to happen it would be awful.

[NDG]

12z UKM closeup

https://i.imgur.com/RI21exE.png

Wow, a majority 2/3 is either right on the coast or making landfall.

[ronjon]

12z ensemble mean looks close to 00z run. Operational UKMET on the eastern edge of ensemble spread. UK ensemble mean close to the CMC operational. I notice the half dozen of tracks into Florida take Dorian W-SW over the next 24-36 hrs. Might be key to where Dorian will end up whether it takes any movement this way during that time period.

[chaser1]

Hey folks, I'm just now getting caught up with some of the 12Z data. Am I looking at the 12Z Euro correctly?? First off, it looked like it was initiated too far to the east; in spite of that however.... it looks distinctly further west and landfalling at Titusville??

[orion]

I would ignore the 6z and 18z runs. Compare to 12z and 0z

Why would you ignore 6z/18z?

There seem to still be assumptions that the 6z/18z runs should often be "thrown out" because of a lack of data... or that they are just using the same data as the 0z/12z runs. The amount of data available is phenomenal for any 6-hour run - satellite data, surface obs, wind profilers, radar, ships/buoys, aircraft, radiosondes, etc. Some also say the radiosondes (balloon launches) are out of date for the 6z/18z runs. This is also not true... the methods of data assimilation (3D and/or 4DVAR) allow us to account for the time and spatial differences from the release time. The reality of data assimilation into the models is that there is much more data (a lot of it redundant) than can be assimilated. If you look at a specific valid forecast hour for a 12z run and compare it to that same valid forecast time for a 6z run, the 6z run should have higher skill because of the new data that has been assimilated (especially true in the short term). Also keep in mind that this wasn't always the case, such as before the improvements in data assimilation techniques (which is perhaps why this feeling that the 6z/18z isn't as "good" as the 0z/12z runs still persists).

[NDG]

Hey folks, I'm just now getting caught up with some of the 12Z data. Am I looking at the 12Z Euro correctly?? First off, it looked like it was initiated too far to the east; in spite of that however.... it looks distinctly further west and landfalling at Titusville??

That's not the Euro, its 12z Operational run is just a tad to the right of its previous 06z run but its ensembles keep trending westward.

[shah83]

NAM shows 18z ridge as being weaker by a bit.

[NDG]

I would ignore the 6z and 18z runs. Compare to 12z and 0z

Why would you ignore 6z/18z?

There seem to still be assumptions that the 6z/18z runs should often be "thrown out" because of a lack of data... or that they are just using the same data as the 0z/12z runs. The amount of data available is phenomenal for any 6-hour run - satellite data, surface obs, wind profilers, radar, ships/buoys, aircraft, radiosondes, etc. Some also say the radiosondes (balloon launches) are out of date for the 6z/18z runs. This is also not true... the methods of data assimilation (3D and/or 4DVAR) allow us to account for the time and spatial differences from the release time. The reality of data assimilation into the models is that there is much more data (a lot of it redundant) than can be assimilated. If you look at a specific valid forecast hour for a 12z run and compare it to that same valid forecast time for a 6z run, the 6z run should have higher skill because of the new data that has been assimilated (especially true in the short term). Also keep in mind that this wasn't always the case, such as before the improvements in data assimilation techniques (which is perhaps why this feeling that the 6z/18z isn't as "good" as the 0z/12z runs still persists).

Not in this case, there are wx balloons being launched at 06z & 18z for the past 4 or 5 days now to enter into those runs, the problem is that the models wanted to break down the ridging sooner than is doing so far why the models trended back west last night after dropsonde data from the recon was entered into the models showing that the ridging was still strong.

[chaser1]

Hey folks, I'm just now getting caught up with some of the 12Z data. Am I looking at the 12Z Euro correctly?? First off, it looked like it was initiated too far to the east; in spite of that however.... it looks distinctly further west and landfalling at Titusville??

That's not the Euro, its 12z Operational run is just a tad to the right of its previous 06z run but its ensembles keep trending westward.

Whew!! Thanks lol. That's what happens when you're forced to use your phone and have too many browsers open at the same time. Must have been a cached page from the Euro from days ago maybe? Anyway.... back to our regularly scheduled "offshore modeling"

[SEASON_CANCELED]

12z UKM closeup

https://i.imgur.com/RI21exE.png

So if UKmet is right, we will get a SW dip in the next 12 hours.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

12z UKM closeup

https://i.imgur.com/RI21exE.png

So if UKmet is right, we will get a SW dip in the next 12 hours.

damn.

[Ian2401]

12z UKM closeup

https://i.imgur.com/RI21exE.png

So if UKmet is right, we will get a SW dip in the next 12 hours.

chances of this actually happening?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

12z UKM closeup

https://i.imgur.com/RI21exE.png

So if UKmet is right, we will get a SW dip in the next 12 hours.

damn.

Thats the last thing in my mind that would create a threat to my area on the other coast

I will breathe easy if no dip happens tommorrow

[johngaltfla]

12z UKM closeup

https://i.imgur.com/RI21exE.png

So if UKmet is right, we will get a SW dip in the next 12 hours.

It has happened in history before for a storm in a similar area so there is precedence for this happening. I wonder if the models actually use much older position history within their calculations.

[Blinhart]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

These have quite a few going West into Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

All stay off Florida

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

A few into Florida

[SEASON_CANCELED]

12z UKM closeup

https://i.imgur.com/RI21exE.png

So if UKmet is right, we will get a SW dip in the next 12 hours.

chances of this actually happening?

Low....measured against the other models not taking into account accuracy. Below 5%

[Blinhart]

12z UKM closeup

https://i.imgur.com/RI21exE.png

So if UKmet is right, we will get a SW dip in the next 12 hours.

chances of this actually happening?

Your guess is as good as anyone else's..

[jhpigott]

12z UKM closeup

https://i.imgur.com/RI21exE.png

So if UKmet is right, we will get a SW dip in the next 12 hours.

Synoptically, what at this point could cause the wsw/sw motion UKMET is showing?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

12z UKM closeup

https://i.imgur.com/RI21exE.png

So if UKmet is right, we will get a SW dip in the next 12 hours.

Synoptically, what at this point could cause the wsw/sw motion UKMET is showing?

I don't have enough knowledge to anser that. Probably has to do with ridging

[BobHarlem]

18z ICON shifts slightly west, 20 nautical miles off canaveral on this run, but NO landfall in Florida.