ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

idk who he is but he sounds really irresponsible and makes 110mph winds no big deal.

You all know me as probably the strictest "there's no such thing as a weak hurricane" poster on this board.

Allow me to reiterate.

If you think 110mph is "nothing", opening your mouth is dangerous to yourself and everyone around you.

70mph winds will topple a semi in the right conditions. 100mph winds can take out a window. Step outside in those 100mph winds? You'd better have something to hold onto, or you're going on a ride. If not, you'll get smacked by debris that is also traveling at 100mph. Do you know what it's like to take a chunk of roof at 100mph? I don't, and I never want to.

exactly. anyone who dismisses 110mph winds is a blowhard and shouldnt have that type of job. his thinking gets people killed.

I'm not entirely sure what the strongest winds I personally have ever been in were. I slept through Irma's eyewall (I can sleep through anything), I believe she was rated a C1 at the time with higher gusts. For what I was awake in? I'm going to spitball 80-90mph, maybe 100mph.

Nothing to sneeze at, folks.

[toto]

John Morales just gave a literal 10 minute monologue about how this storm is going to turn and nothing bad is going to happen in Dade and Broward and MAYBE worst case scenario hurricane force winds in the upper corner of Palm Beach County. “They might have winds of 110 and that’s what you want to put shutters up for.”

He is really dismissive of people’s concerns. He is probably right but he grinds my gears as he speaks from MountOlympus, especially since he blew Dorians dissipation after PR

That's very interesting, especially for those counties.

.

[mutley]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

Um, wait a minute. Your question is worded very weirdly. Are you asking if most of us think it's going to hit Florida or are you asking if we think it's not?

It doesn't matter for you. I already know your thoughts and they are in cement. But for the benefit of others, I was asking who believes it will hit the Florida coast.

[norva13x]

Florida landfall looks quite unlikely but a closer brush or/and a larger storm means trouble.

Depends what you mean by unlikely. A good third of the cone is in Florida yet.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/GBlack22wx/status/1168273327531679744

[Hurricane Andrew]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

Um, wait a minute. Your question is worded very weirdly. Are you asking if most of us think it's going to hit Florida or are you asking if we think it's not?

It doesn't matter for you. I already know your thoughts and they are in cement. But for the benefit of others, I was asking who believes it will hit the Florida coast.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

So, my opinion is that it will stay off the FL coast. But I also believe that margin, from eye to coast, may be less than one hundred miles. Maybe as low as 50-75. Areas of FL will, IMO, see hurricane force winds, tornadoes, flooding rains, and significant to extreme storm surge. TS force winds will likely extend a good bit inland.

100 mile margin, maybe less. Wouldn't take much to knock a few zeroes off that and put this thing on land.

[underthwx]

Yall will unfortunately experience Hurricane conditions, it's plain to see...i believe it's a matter of severity, and location. My apologies for the weather ahead.

[Blinhart]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

I believe it

[boulderrr]

Yeah. The NHC for one. Count me number two.

If it occurs, it may be a coastal cruiser and that too could be catastrophic , kind of a damned if you do and damned if you don't kind of deal.
If it recurves out to sea, that would be the best outcome of all but I haven't seen any thing about that lately and the closer it gets to the east
coast, the worse it could be.

Ive posted it several times that in reality at this point LANDFALL is the better option as running up the coast will leave a much longer path of destruction.

I 100% disagree with this. "At this point landfall is the better option" is very incorrect. The storm's center of circulation is currently forecast to remain far enough offshore that the impact would be nothing to Dorian making landfall and then still tracking up the peninsula. It's not going to disappear if it makes landfall and the amount of destruction would be magnitudes higher than if the center stays 40+ miles off the coast.

[KWT]

You all know me as probably the strictest "there's no such thing as a weak hurricane" poster on this board.

Allow me to reiterate.

If you think 110mph is "nothing", opening your mouth is dangerous to yourself and everyone around you.

70mph winds will topple a semi in the right conditions. 100mph winds can take out a window. Step outside in those 100mph winds? You'd better have something to hold onto, or you're going on a ride. If not, you'll get smacked by debris that is also traveling at 100mph. Do you know what it's like to take a chunk of roof at 100mph? I don't, and I never want to.

exactly. anyone who dismisses 110mph winds is a blowhard and shouldnt have that type of job. his thinking gets people killed.

I'm not entirely sure what the strongest winds I personally have ever been in were. I slept through Irma's eyewall (I can sleep through anything), I believe she was rated a C1 at the time with higher gusts. For what I was awake in? I'm going to spitball 80-90mph, maybe 100mph.

Nothing to sneeze at, folks.

Yeah people nearly always underestimate what winds feel like. In the UK we often get decent wind storms. My personal strongest I can remember was probably a gust around 85-90mph and it was very impressive. Even 60mph gusts will make you need to get into a decent stance as you try to walk/stand. Beyond that it gets pretty hard to walk around.

[Hurricane Andrew]

exactly. anyone who dismisses 110mph winds is a blowhard and shouldnt have that type of job. his thinking gets people killed.

I'm not entirely sure what the strongest winds I personally have ever been in were. I slept through Irma's eyewall (I can sleep through anything), I believe she was rated a C1 at the time with higher gusts. For what I was awake in? I'm going to spitball 80-90mph, maybe 100mph.

Nothing to sneeze at, folks.

Yeah people nearly always underestimate what winds feel like. In the UK we often get decent wind storms. My personal strongest I can remember was probably a gust around 85-90mph and it was very impressive. Even 60mph gusts will make you need to get into a decent stance as you try to walk/stand. Beyond that it gets pretty hard to walk around.

We get some pretty intense straight-line thunderstorm winds in KS, and my low-profile car starts to shake around 60. I'd hate to take it out in a hurricane.

[mutley]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

I believe it

Any guess as to where on the coast?

[CrazyC83]

A good analysis on this graphic. It's a nightmare for emergency managers.

 https://twitter.com/EricSnitilWx/status/1168275170559221765

[weathaguyry]

I feel the hurricane warning is very appropriate for the FL east coast. Let’s say, hypothetically, that during the “stall” Dorian wobbles around and ends up with a net motion of W at 2mph, after 24 hours of this motion, it would be 48 miles closer to the coast. This of course can easily work the other way around. Overall storm motion will be crucial, as the “wobbles” that occur as Dorian slows even more will be misleading to the overall track. My prayers are with everyone being affected by the storm, please do not let your guard down for a monster Cat 5 like this!

[sbcc]

Yeah people nearly always underestimate what winds feel like. In the UK we often get decent wind storms. My personal strongest I can remember was probably a gust around 85-90mph and it was very impressive. Even 60mph gusts will make you need to get into a decent stance as you try to walk/stand. Beyond that it gets pretty hard to walk around.

The storm in my avatar had 65-70 mph straight line winds and knocked people over at the beach two years ago. Michigan.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The moat around the inner eyewall is clear as day on radar. But this is something we saw with Irma too, a giant band would form around the inner eyewall and just fall apart, allowing the inner eyewall to continue chugging along with the hurricane maintaining its ridiculous intensity. Given how much Dorian is reminding me of Irma, this is something we need to watch out for.

[abajan]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

Um, wait a minute. Your question is worded very weirdly. Are you asking if most of us think it's going to hit Florida or are you asking if we think it's not?

I think they mean the latter. Perhaps it would've been better worded thus: "... and instead go right into Florida's coast somewhere?". IDK

[Meteorcane]

If it occurs, it may be a coastal cruiser and that too could be catastrophic , kind of a damned if you do and damned if you don't kind of deal.
If it recurves out to sea, that would be the best outcome of all but I haven't seen any thing about that lately and the closer it gets to the east
coast, the worse it could be.

Ive posted it several times that in reality at this point LANDFALL is the better option as running up the coast will leave a much longer path of destruction.

I 100% disagree with this. "At this point landfall is the better option" is very incorrect. The storm's center of circulation is currently forecast to remain far enough offshore that the impact would be nothing to Dorian making landfall and then still tracking up the peninsula. It's not going to disappear if it makes landfall and the amount of destruction would be magnitudes higher than if the center stays 40+ miles off the coast.

This is correct, although you can certainly have TC impacts away from the center (especially heavy rain, rainband tornadoes, and rough surf), the vast majority of truly destructive wind (and surge) damage are going to occur in the eyewall. This is especially true in an intense but relatively compact storm like Dorian is, although granted it will likely expand somewhat in size due to both increasingly latitude and the fact that at some point it will likely undergo and EWRC. If Florida can avoid the eyewall it will be a much different scenario than if Dorian does get close enough for the eyewall to impact land (even if the center doesn't actually make landfall).

[tarheelprogrammer]

https://twitter.com/NWSGrandForks/statu ... wsrc%5Etfw

[mutley]

A good analysis on this graphic. It's a nightmare for emergency managers.

https://twitter.com/EricSnitilWx/status/1168275170559221765

"What's at stake" spells out the level of pressure on the NHC. Stakes are very high at the moment. Wouldn't want to be them.