ATL: DORIAN - Models

[NFLnut]

Ok ... so UKmet says Dorian will only reach 78.3 by 8am tomorrow morning. And 78.8 by 8am Tuesday morning.

Dorian better hit the thrust reversers

Just to my (admittedly) totally untrained eye on the radar, it looks like it has slowed down since a little before the 11pm.

[Blown Away]

Can we really trust the GFS when it keeps being right biased on the forecast track in the short term?

Dorian is already SW of the 00z GFS...

[shah83]

00z CMC has slightly weaker ridge and slightly stronger trough, doesn't make much of a difference besides a slightly further north landfall. The storm depicted looks too weak, though.

[Hurricaneman]

Can we really trust the GFS when it keeps being right biased on the forecast track in the short term?

Dorian is already SW of the 00z GFS...

If the GFS is right of current track extrapolating it it would make definite landfall on the Florida east coast and may go partially inland

[chaser1]

This is not the right direction for every models except the euro and UKMET... lol.. it is very quickly separating from the next NHC forecast position..

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/Capture5fb7d9dd4001cd82.png

Maybe I'm in need of more coffee lol, but what?? Not exactly getting your point

[Blinhart]

This is not the right direction for every models except the euro and UKMET... lol.. it is very quickly separating from the next NHC forecast position..

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/09/01/Capture5fb7d9dd4001cd82.png

Maybe I'm in need of more coffee lol, but what?? Not exactly getting your point

Dorian is moving South of West and pulling away from the plot points that the NHC forecast, and for most other models. Only the Euro and UKMET had ensembles showing this movement.

[Ian2401]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168384399898902528

[MetroMike]

Most of the models are now agreeing with offshore Florida.
Not much drama going on for now.

[AtlanticWind]

Most of the models are now agreeing with offshore Florida.
Not much drama going on for now.

Actually I would say more drama, we don't know how close to coast all the way up the eastern seaboard

[sponger]

HWRF closing in on a Florida landfall North of Canaveral.

[crimi481]

lots of drama, with an expanding Cat 5 cane still moving approx wsw to Florida. Do most models forecast this?

[TheProfessor]

Both the HWRF and HMON have shifted east on their latest runs. However, their short turn motions between 3z and 6z are wnw, bringing Dorian north and west of the Grand Bahamas. So far that isn't accurate. That doesn't mean their later solutions are wrong, but it's definitely something worth watching.

[KC7NEC]

lots of drama, with an expanding Cat 5 cane still moving approx wsw to Florida. Do most models forecast this?

Dorian is SOUTH of all the models right now based on Recon

[sponger]

HWRF Inner core just offshore Daytona. A miss likely but far greater impacts from NHC track. Just misses NFL.

[hurricaneCW]

Most of the models are now agreeing with offshore Florida.
Not much drama going on for now.

Carolinas are at much greater risk than Florida imo.

[HurricaneEric]

00z Euro init


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[TheDreamTraveler]

These are from the last few days of ensemble runs of the Euro. Doesn't include 0z running right now. But yeah that west trend is definite.

 https://twitter.com/JPKassell/status/1168341451895443456

[HurricaneEric]

In 24 hours it’ll be on the western tip of Grand Bahama according to the 00z Euro. Hard to imagine a slow down that abrupt any other time but possible with the weak steering that’ll occur.


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[ColdMiser123]

Another tick SW of 12z through hour 36 on the Euro.

[CFLHurricane]

In 24 hours it’ll be on the western tip of Grand Bahama according to the 00z Euro. Hard to imagine a slow down that abrupt any other time but possible with the weak steering that’ll occur. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190902/53d8a4cd47af8de9bc0bc99ff9edc9bb.jpg

I find this hard to believe.