ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sma10]

Now comes the inner eye wobbles..

its going to start rotating around shortly.. so everyone is going to have to look a the over all mass.. until the outer eyewall is solid enough to track..

Ahh. I thought it was in a stall

[dandeliongum]

Met Craig Setzer (CBS miami) was just on about 1.5 hours ago talking how stressful wobble watching is but said it's extremely normal to see these storms do this. He's right, it's definitely stressful for sure. He is extremely confident in the current track. I'm located in SW Pembroke Pines - very, very nervous. I feel sick thinking about everyone in the Bahamas and I'm incredibly anxious to see what comes next. A terrifying storm.

[tropicwatch]

Where can I find a good radar view of the storm. Thanks


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https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions/east-central-florida/large-scale-loop

[STRiZZY]

If the forward speed goes down to 4mph then it is a classic slowing in to a turn...

Still 5mph.

Wonder if at the 5am it will state wsw? It's been heading just south of west for a few hours now.

[eastcoastFL]

Personally I'm not too worried about this slight "wobble", it's within the margin of error of the model guidance and the NHC forecast. These small deviations occur often in tropical cyclones. They can deviate back the other way as well, hence negating the initial deviation. It only becomes extremely problematic when there is a consistent trend of the storm deviating from the line of best fit, or when the storm is immediately adjacent to the coast and it pushes more extreme effects ashore.

Almost every major hurricane to landfall in the U.S. in the past two decades, especially when the steering is weak or when an EWRC is taking place, have exhibited small "wobbles" in their path. We often hear people anthropomorphize these small deviations and say "X storm has a mind of its own".

When you're sitting in your home 125 miles slightly north of west from a record setting hurricane heading west and wobbling south, you're perspective on wobbles changes.
When your current closest path of the NHC track places the center of this beast 50nm to your ENE and it wobbles west then your perspective changes.
We're sitting here in Palm Beach County on a knife edge of either celebrating a minimal pass of a record setting storm or getting very real damage.
So, I am worried........

That’s exactly how I feel. Every deviation from forecast means an increased risk for us. While I already fled, my home and my life is still there in palm city so I’m still glued to every wobble. I want it to turn already so I can fly home.

[eastcoastFL]

Where can I find a good radar view of the storm. Thanks


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https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[WeatherEmperor]

If the forward speed goes down to 4mph then it is a classic slowing in to a turn...

Still 5mph.

Wonder if at the 5am it will state wsw? It's been heading just south of west for a few hours now.

Im confused now. The 11pm advisory had Dorian at 26.6N and the 2am advisory has it at the exact 26.6N. Where is the heading just south of west coming from??


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[3090]

Just from a very casual tropical weather watcher and having observed for 10’s of years, until Dorian’s overall physical appearance (shape/elongation) starts to change, I’d say he is still headed W. I want to see his appearance, or center axis change to a more SE to NW look. As of now, he is still round, with an eye that appears to have a WSW to ENE look, almost egg like and not very concentric. Like he is being squashed. Something is still not right in the atmosphere, to turn/begin nudging him WNW, then NW, then NNW...etc. Until we see his center axis begin to change, I am growingly worried for the folks along the east coast.

[Texashawk]

Hey, good news!!! Looks like he’s stopped dead in his tracks over the last 20 minutes or so!!

This is very bad news for Grand Bahama but maybe good news for Florida?

[AJC3]

If the forward speed goes down to 4mph then it is a classic slowing in to a turn...

I've been keeping a 3-hour satellite motion at work. It's gone from about 270/5kt when I got here to 260/2kt. It looks for all intents that Dorian has quickly run out of ridging to its north and is entering a stall, as advertised to varying degrees by the models. I expect this will be followed by a gradual evolution to a wobbly, lurching more poleward motion later today. RECON should probably be showing this soon as well.

[ozonepete]

If the forward speed goes down to 4mph then it is a classic slowing in to a turn...

Still 5mph.

Wonder if at the 5am it will state wsw? It's been heading just south of west for a few hours now.

Im confused now. The 11pm advisory had Dorian at 26.6N and the 2am advisory has it at the exact 26.6N. Where is the heading just south of west coming from??

From people who are doing their own measurements using various methods. Just follow the NHC.


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[MrStormX]

Personally I'm not too worried about this slight "wobble", it's within the margin of error of the model guidance and the NHC forecast. These small deviations occur often in tropical cyclones. They can deviate back the other way as well, hence negating the initial deviation. It only becomes extremely problematic when there is a consistent trend of the storm deviating from the line of best fit, or when the storm is immediately adjacent to the coast and it pushes more extreme effects ashore.

Almost every major hurricane to landfall in the U.S. in the past two decades, especially when the steering is weak or when an EWRC is taking place, have exhibited small "wobbles" in their path. We often hear people anthropomorphize these small deviations and say "X storm has a mind of its own".

When you're sitting in your home 125 miles slightly north of west from a record setting hurricane heading west and wobbling south, you're perspective on wobbles changes.
When your current closest path of the NHC track places the center of this beast 50nm to your ENE and it wobbles west then your perspective changes.
We're sitting here in Palm Beach County on a knife edge of either celebrating a minimal pass of a record setting storm or getting very real damage.
So, I am worried........

You are worried as you rightfully should be. Regardless of the exact track, you will experience effects from this storm, that is a fact. I live within the cone of uncertainty in North Carolina. Like you, small changes in track could be the difference between getting some light showers and blustery wind and being put out of my home. I am reticent of this reality.

My point is that a wobble alone should not induce a fear that the track put forth by the National Hurricane Center is somehow wrong, and that professional meteorologists have no idea what is going on. Small track deviations that are within the margin of error are also within the current NHC forecast, and hence nothing to lose sleep over (on top of the sleep that is already lost being in the path of a hurricane). Larger deviations from the median line are a much bigger concern, but it takes many hours to verify those, and the NHC acts quickly to inform the public and update the forecast when these deviations occur. I believe such an event happened with Ike in 2008 when the models failed to predict unseen variability in the mid-level ridge. When a storm is close to the coast, that is when small deviations are really scary - but by then I would hope that most people would have evacuated inland to somewhere slightly safer.

[eastcoastFL]

If the forward speed goes down to 4mph then it is a classic slowing in to a turn...

I've been keeping a 3-hour satellite motion at work. It's gone from about 270/5kt when I got here to 260/2kt. It looks for all intents that Dorian has quickly run out of ridging to its north and is entering a stall, as advertised to varying degrees by the models. I expect this will be followed by a gradual evolution to a wobbly, lurching more poleward motion later today. RECON should probably be showing this soon as well.

Last few loops looks slower

[STRiZZY]

If the forward speed goes down to 4mph then it is a classic slowing in to a turn...

Still 5mph.

Wonder if at the 5am it will state wsw? It's been heading just south of west for a few hours now.

Im confused now. The 11pm advisory had Dorian at 26.6N and the 2am advisory has it at the exact 26.6N. Where is the heading just south of west coming from??


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https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Watch as Dorian leaves Abaco. It's been on a pretty steady south of west direction ever since.

[SoupBone]

Hey, good news!!! Looks like he’s stopped dead in his tracks over the last 20 minutes or so!!

EDIT: this is very bad news for Grand Bahama but maybe good news for Florida?

Yeah he's at a dead stop right now. Really bad news for Freeport who's probably getting pounded right now.

[Nederlander]

Something is going on with Dorian. Significant warming of clouds on the western side and deep convection well displaced from the center on the eastern side.

[birddogsc]

Radar and sat indicates slower movement in the last 30 mins or so. We'll see if that holds.

Teasing us... just outside of hi-res on NEXRAD.

[J3r3my]

Personally I'm not too worried about this slight "wobble", it's within the margin of error of the model guidance and the NHC forecast. These small deviations occur often in tropical cyclones. They can deviate back the other way as well, hence negating the initial deviation. It only becomes extremely problematic when there is a consistent trend of the storm deviating from the line of best fit, or when the storm is immediately adjacent to the coast and it pushes more extreme effects ashore.

Almost every major hurricane to landfall in the U.S. in the past two decades, especially when the steering is weak or when an EWRC is taking place, have exhibited small "wobbles" in their path. We often hear people anthropomorphize these small deviations and say "X storm has a mind of its own".

When you're sitting in your home 125 miles slightly north of west from a record setting hurricane heading west and wobbling south, you're perspective on wobbles changes.
When your current closest path of the NHC track places the center of this beast 50nm to your ENE and it wobbles west then your perspective changes.
We're sitting here in Palm Beach County on a knife edge of either celebrating a minimal pass of a record setting storm or getting very real damage.
So, I am worried........

You are worried as you rightfully should be. Regardless of the exact track, you will experience effects from this storm, that is a fact. I live within the cone of uncertainty in North Carolina. Like you, small changes in track could be the difference between getting some light showers and blustery wind and being put out of my home. I am reticent of this reality.

My point is that a wobble alone should not induce a fear that the track put forth by the National Hurricane Center is somehow wrong, and that professional meteorologists have no idea what is going on. Small track deviations that are within the margin of error are also within the current NHC forecast, and hence nothing to lose sleep over (on top of the sleep that is already lost being in the path of a hurricane). Larger deviations from the median line are a much bigger concern, but it takes many hours to verify those, and the NHC acts quickly to inform the public and update the forecast when these deviations occur. I believe such an event happened with Ike in 2008 when the models failed to predict unseen variability in the mid-level ridge. When a storm is close to the coast, that is when small deviations are really scary - but by then I would hope that most people would have evacuated inland to somewhere slightly safer.

So when would you recommend evacuating from, say, St Augustine?

[birddogsc]

Something is going on with Dorian. Significant warming of clouds on the western side and deep convection well displaced from the center on the eastern side.

Sheer? Those values are low, yes?

[cheezyWXguy]

If the forward speed goes down to 4mph then it is a classic slowing in to a turn...

I've been keeping a 3-hour satellite motion at work. It's gone from about 270/5kt when I got here to 260/2kt. It looks for all intents that Dorian has quickly run out of ridging to its north and is entering a stall, as advertised to varying degrees by the models. I expect this will be followed by a gradual evolution to wobbly, lurching more poleward motion later today. RECON should probably be showing this soon as well.

Convection is also warming around the core, and the blob to the se is deeper than the cdo. These are likely the effects of both structural changes and land interaction, and indications that Dorian is slowly weakening.