ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

CIMSS is showing a north steer for Cat 5 intensity due to a ULL to the south and ULH to the SE.
I don't know, Diabatic Ridge directly to the SE from Dorian's outflow will likely put a lid on that.
Also with Dorian weakening, steering will likely come from the next notch down which at this time is weakly to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/fexvoVQ.png

https://i.imgur.com/xf1jdtQ.png

That is a narrow window for Dorian to try to move through i hope this trough currently will be enough to pul Dorian out of here bh Thursday. I hope this weakness will do the trick for all of our sakes thats for darn sure!!

[NDG]

5 hr radar loop of Dorian, which has almost come to a complete stop, now jogging a little NW during the past couple of ours, definitely EWR going on so I am sure recon will find it weaker this morning. Very important to watch how far west it slowly moves over the next 18-24 hours, the farther west it goes the closer it will get to the east coast when it starts finally moving to the NW to NNW tomorrow.

[Jr0d]

The upcoming trough wont do squat.


https://i.imgur.com/Af3JClD.png

Boy I hope you are wrong.

My fear is Dorian missing the first trough, then a small but strong enough ridge building in, pushing Dorian SW then west into Florida before the next trough grabs him.

My interpretation of the some of the model runs led me to this scenario. Fortunately it is unlikely but not impossible in my amateur opinion.

[3090]

CIMSS is showing a north steer for Cat 5 intensity due to a ULL to the south and ULH to the SE.
I don't know, Diabatic Ridge directly to the SE from Dorian's outflow will likely put a lid on that.
Also with Dorian weakening, steering will likely come from the next notch down which at this time is weakly to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/fexvoVQ.png

https://i.imgur.com/xf1jdtQ.png

That is a narrow window for Dorian to try to move through i hope this trough currently will be enough to pul Dorian out of here bh Thursday. I hope this weakness will do the trick for all of our sakes thats for darn sure!!

No chance Dorian misses his opportunity to escape northwestward...etc., and then ultimately out to sea, is there? What would be your guess, from a timing standpoint? A window of hours?

[abajan]

5 hr radar loop of Dorian, which has almost come to a complete stop, now jogging a little NW during the past couple of ours, definitely EWR going on so I am sure recon will find it weaker this morning. Very important to watch how far west it slowly moves over the next 18-24 hours, the farther west it goes the closer it will get to the east coast when it starts finally moving to the NW to NNW tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/oFZm9HD.gif

Also important to watch how much bigger it gets after the EWRC.

[GCANE]

IR and radar showing a movement to the north

[catskillfire51]

The first trough was supposed to kill the steering, which it clearly has as Dorian is barely moving right now, it will bounce around different steering components for the next 18-24 hrs and then the second trough is supposed to come through. A very big picture and a lot of moving parts but the first trough did its job already in my eyes

[3090]

IR and radar showing a movement to the north

Yes and let the movement pick up forward speed.

[xironman]

The upcoming EWRC should allow it to grow a bit in size as it meanders around.

[catskillfire51]

The upcoming EWRC should allow it to grow a bit in size as it meanders around.

Im wondering how long it will take and how fast it can bounce back being partially over land.

[Nimbus]

5 hr radar loop of Dorian, which has almost come to a complete stop, now jogging a little NW during the past couple of ours, definitely EWR going on so I am sure recon will find it weaker this morning. Very important to watch how far west it slowly moves over the next 18-24 hours, the farther west it goes the closer it will get to the east coast when it starts finally moving to the NW to NNW tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/oFZm9HD.gif

Also important to watch how much bigger it gets after the EWRC.

Cat 2 winds in the outer eyewall, hopefully Freeport has prepped for that.

[AdamFirst]

Its definitely still moving, looks to be generally a western crawl. The eye will likely pass over Cormorant Point (the pointy looking north end of the island) within the next couple hours. Freeport will start to get that inner eyewall in earnest.

[GCANE]

Center of the eye may be over water.
Not really seeing a well defined moat on radar.
May spin back up once southern eyewall gets offshore.

[GCANE]

TPW infeed from the GOM seems to be thinning.
Also, spin up of 92L may suck some juice away from Dorian as well.
We may have already seen Dorian's max intensity.

[xironman]

The NOAA plane stopped transmitting anyone know why?

[Tailspin]

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1168483727497973761




Atm this is all that really matters.

[NDG]

Still just an unbelievable satellite presentation on first vis picture this morning despite being almost stalled this morning, but total devastation continuing in Grand Bahama Island.

[NDG]

The NOAA plane stopped transmitting anyone know why?

I don't see a NOAA recon in the air any more, there was one that landed a few minutes ago that was sampling the atmosphere around Dorian since 2 AM.
AF recon was supposed to be in Dorian this morning but has turned around back to Keesler AFB twice already.

[otowntiger]

IR and radar showing a movement to the north

Yep pretty clear progression northward- however it’s described- whether its actual motion, a wobble, drift, jog etc. it has gained latitude and every half mile is important at this point. My belief (hope) is that the turn could be ahead of schedule and could have positive effects up the road. Either way It has stalled sooner than forecast and a more easterly pivot point would certainly be a good thing.

[xironman]

The NOAA plane stopped transmitting anyone know why?

I don't see a NOAA recon in the air any more, there was one that landed a few minutes ago that was sampling the atmosphere around Dorian since 2 AM.
AF recon was supposed to be in Dorian this morning but has turned around back to Keesler AFB twice already.

Your right, I expected it to go back to New Orleans