ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[doomhaMwx]

Sunrise over Dorian, still blasting the Grand Bahama island.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Rip bahamas

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Imagine being in cat2-5 winds for 36 hour s

[abajan]

IR and radar showing a movement to the north

Yep pretty clear progression northward- however it’s described- whether its actual motion, a wobble, drift, etc. it has gained latitude and every half mile is important at this point. My belief (hope) is that the turn could be ahead of schedule and could have positive effects up the road. Either way It has stalled sooner than forecast and a more easterly pivot point would certainly be a good thing.

FWIW It's back to 270 degrees in the 8 AM intermediate advisory. (Was 280 in the 7 o'clock update.)

[dexterlabio]

Based on the current forecast model trends, it looks like Florida will get Matthew-like impacts from Dorian in the coming days, am I right? So far it looks like the eye is stair-stepping to the northwest. This is the point where you can't only just rely on forecasting and be more into nowcasting.

[doomhaMwx]

[Jevo]

I cannot imagine the hell on Earth that the people of Grand Bahama are living through right now with this stall.. For their sake and the some of ours on this board I hope he does something unexpected and starts going out to sea immediately... Anybody that would hope for this to come to their locations is out of their mind.

[NDG]

Imagine being in cat2-5 winds for 36 hour s

Another way to look at it is that people that are in the eye had fairly calm conditions for several hours before having to go through the second half of the eyewall for several hours.

[BobHarlem]

Looks like it's sliding nw on this long radar loop http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?468

[xironman]

The escape route may be getting ready to close as the ridge builds back in from the west

[otowntiger]

IR and radar showing a movement to the north

Yep pretty clear progression northward- however it’s described- whether its actual motion, a wobble, drift, etc. it has gained latitude and every half mile is important at this point. My belief (hope) is that the turn could be ahead of schedule and could have positive effects up the road. Either way It has stalled sooner than forecast and a more easterly pivot point would certainly be a good thing.

FWIW It's back to 270 degrees in the 8 AM intermediate advisory. (Was 280 in the 7 o'clock update.)

. True, but at 1 mph it is essentially stalled- Like I said every half mile in positive progression is critical, if it’s real, but I’m having a hard time seeing any movement at this time.

[Vdogg]

IR and radar showing a movement to the north

Yep pretty clear progression northward- however it’s described- whether its actual motion, a wobble, drift, jog etc. it has gained latitude and every half mile is important at this point. My belief (hope) is that the turn could be ahead of schedule and could have positive effects up the road. Either way It has stalled sooner than forecast and a more easterly pivot point would certainly be a good thing.

The stall has occurred at the exact point it was modeled to stall. The key now is how long it will stall. It's supposed to start turning north (and gaining speed) late tonight or early tomorrow. The models have had this pretty well-handled ever since the big shift East, which I think was a direct result of the lack of recon data that was being fed into the models early in the storm's life.

[dukeblue219]

Imagine being in cat2-5 winds for 36 hour s

Another way to look at it is that people that are in the eye had fairly calm conditions for several hours before having to go through the second half of the eyewall for several hours.

I was just thinking about that. The calm of the eye is usually such a fleeting experience for a few unlucky souls that experience direct landfall before the eye collapses. There some people who will have hours to watch a Cat5 spin around them. Outside of Hurricane Hunters I wonder how many people have ever experienced that.

[gatorcane]

Horrible for the Bahamas. Compared to what the Bahamas is going through, Florida looks like it has a chance to get off the hook with this one, this may go down as another huge scare particularly for my locale in South Florida. We have managed to dodge the core of Irma, Matthew, and now Dorian in the last 3 years. Of course we can’t rule out a track along the left side of the cone which would impact areas right along the coast in Central and NE Florida but oh what could have been if this monster headed W or WNW through South or Central Florida like the models showed mid to late last week. Even if there was just a smidge more ridging and the storms stalled further west over Florida. What could have been...

[WAcyclone]

Interesting that the EWRC clearly evident on the Bahamian radar appears to be basically invisible in microwave imagery.

[ronjon]

Looks like Dorians resumed a W-NW movement now...more than the 1 mph in the 5 am advisory.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[northjaxpro]

Speechless! The images from the Bahamas. Complete devastation. Godspeed to the people of the Bahamas.

Our thoughts and prayers are with you!! You will.persevere and the people and country.of the Bahamas will.rise again strong!!!

[ocala]

Imagine being in cat2-5 winds for 36 hour s

Another way to look at it is that people that are in the eye had fairly calm conditions for several hours before having to go through the second half of the eyewall for several hours.

Would love to see some video of the eyewall. That would be breathtaking.

[northjaxpro]

The escape route may be getting ready to close as the ridge builds back in from the west

https://i.imgur.com/wDKFTuQ.gif

Hmm. Look at the earlier CIMSS analysis from earlier. You can see the weakness, but.compared to the earlier analysis, here the trough is getting narrower and narrower. The trough may indeed be attempting to lift.out. This first, initial trough may not pick up Dorian. I discussed this earlier this morning a page or two back on this thread.

[StormingB81]

The escape route may be getting ready to close as the ridge builds back in from the west

https://i.imgur.com/wDKFTuQ.gif

Hmm. Look at the earlier CIMSS analysis from earlier. You can see the weakness, but.compared to the earlier analysis, here the trough s getting narrower and narrower. The trough may indeed be attempting to lift.out. This first, initial trough may not pick up Dorian. I discussed this earlier this morning a page or two back on this thread.

Would would that mean for the coast of Florida?