wxman57

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... s_nt4.html

I know that you are at odds with the NHC about why in the world they are calling Nicholas a tropical storm from 2 days ago.And I too ask the question why.But when you read the discussion about why at 5 PM they still have it as a tropical storm Avila says There are some tropical storm force winds in some of the curvature bands.

57 What do you think of what they said.? What is going on at that office?

[wxman57]

My problem with the NHC is a lack of consistency. The NHC will not upgrade a well-defined LLC to a depression if it lacks convection around the center, regardless of how high the winds may be in convection 100 miles or more east of the low-level swirl. That is, unless the low-level swirl in question is in the northern Gulf (more inconsistency). There really doesn't seem to be any set definition for a TD or TS designation at the NHC.

Dvorak estimates are 1.0/1.5 now for Nicholas - that's below minimal TD status. Using the NHC's logic for keeping Nicholas a storm, there can be no tropical depressions, ever, as most TDs will have some squalls with might have occasional TS-force winds in them.

However, I shouldn't complain, the worse the NHC and the Weather Channel perform for the general public, the better it is for private industry.

[cycloneye]

Yeah with T numbers 1.0/1.5 that would be a disturbance not even a TD and that is the question that I have and you have too. Now let's see how fast they classifie the caribbean system if it develops.

[vbhoutex]

For once I must agree with the question and the answer. Most of you know I am usually a strong supporter of the NHC. Overall, this year, track and intensity wise they have done exceptionally well imo, with a few quirks.

But for the life of me I can see no reason at all why Nicholas is still classified!!! If someone out there can offer a good reason I would like to see it.

[wxman57]

For once I must agree with the question and the answer. Most of you know I am usually a strong supporter of the NHC. Overall, this year, track and intensity wise they have done exceptionally well imo, with a few quirks.

But for the life of me I can see no reason at all why Nicholas is still classified!!! If someone out there can offer a good reason I would like to see it.

Again, I don't have a problem calling Nick a TS now, if it did have TS-force winds in SOME squalls. However, I would expect the NHC to upgrade the next similar system to a TS and not refuse to upgrade it even to a TD for the same reasons they're keeping Nick a TS.