ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PandaCitrus]

The surge videos on twitter are unreal.

 https://twitter.com/6INNER/status/1168642796489756673

[birdwomn]

Levi's evening update is very informative, as usual: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[jhpigott]

Convection starting to wrap the eye. Very strong convection on the southern half

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

Yeah, radar starting to fill in to the west of Dorian over the gulf stream

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Airboy]

Have not moved at all in the four hours since recon first arived.

[PandaCitrus]

Now, there has to be some concern the models aren't picking up the stationary movement. Could Dorian miss his connection with the trough and start doing unpredictable things?

[Hurrilurker]

Incredible that a 100 mile east or west difference in track could mean the difference between minor inconvenience/damage and $100B+ damage and months of disruption in the U.S. (no, I'm not forgetting about the Bahamas which are obviously devastated).

[TallyTracker]

The images coming out of the Abacos look exactly like the type of damage seen from Hurricane Michael. The tree damage in particular is noteworthy as no large trees are left. Only small flexible trees survived. This is heartbreaking and devastating to see. Those islands will never be the same after this.

[dukeblue219]

Now, there has to be some concern the models aren't picking up the stationary movement. Could Dorian miss his connection with the trough and start doing unpredictable things?

Why are you concerned the models are wrong?

[ROCK]

Cut the back and forth. This is a historic storm and emotions are:

Man, so much for a dead season and only start of September.

Dorian still wobbling around, hopefully moves away from the Bahamas asap

Thought it was time to get back in the game..

Good to see you and some other folks on here from 2004. Crazy we have been here for 14yrs

[mpic]

Drive through of Abaco Island damage. I think this is Marsh Harbour but I could be wrong.

https://www.facebook.com/10000021533569 ... 86?sfns=mo

Looks like an F5 tornado went through there. I can't believe all the people walking around barefoot with all those possible power lines laying on the ground!!

Seriously doubt that there is any power at all on the island. It's one of the first things to be shut down if any is even available for just this reason. A safety thing.

[sponger]

Looks to be drifting West, maybe ready to head up coast?

[ROCK]

The images coming out of the Abacos look exactly like the type of damage seen from Hurricane Michael. The tree damage in particular is noteworthy as no large trees are left. Only small flexible trees survived. This is heartbreaking and devastating to see. Those islands will never be the same after this.

Exactly..the twitter vids and FB posts which I have no idea they still have connectivity is amazing. The Bahamas are leveled. No vacay for at least 5 yrs in the Bahamas.(

[dukeblue219]

Drive through of Abaco Island damage. I think this is Marsh Harbour but I could be wrong.

https://www.facebook.com/10000021533569 ... 86?sfns=mo

Looks like an F5 tornado went through there. I can't believe all the people walking around barefoot with all those possible power lines laying on the ground!!

Seriously doubt that there is any power at all on the island. It's one of the first things to be shut down if any is even available for just this reason. A safety thing.

I would, however, expect a lot of broken glass, nails, and contaminated water....

[toad strangler]

The images coming out of the Abacos look exactly like the type of damage seen from Hurricane Michael. The tree damage in particular is noteworthy as no large trees are left. Only small flexible trees survived. This is heartbreaking and devastating to see. Those islands will never be the same after this.

Exactly..the twitter vids and FB posts which I have no idea they still have connectivity is amazing. The Bahamas are leveled. No vacay for at least 5 yrs in the Bahamas.(

The S Bahamas with the lions share of population faired much better.

[b0tzy29]

Pray for the Bahamas guys. Just scrolling through Twitter while eating dinner and lost my appetite. Absolutely awful.

[PandaCitrus]

Because if the ridge does not weaken as much as the models say, the northward movement will be more oriented NW and puts the Central and North Florida Coastline more at risk.

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1168655849327353856

Now, there has to be some concern the models aren't picking up the stationary movement. Could Dorian miss his connection with the trough and start doing unpredictable things?

Why are you concerned the models are wrong?

[chaser1]

What first appeared as a NNE drift and then a northward motion, now seems to be part of some trochoidal motion. Question is, where will this 8-ball begin to really move. WNW or NNW?

[Bostonriff]

The images coming out of the Abacos look exactly like the type of damage seen from Hurricane Michael. The tree damage in particular is noteworthy as no large trees are left. Only small flexible trees survived.

The Bahamas don't have "large" trees, as the elevation and watershed aren't enough to support any appreciable fresh water table for big trees to plug a tap-root into.

[Bostonriff]

These models are jerk-starting forward movement way too fast, when Dorian is still basically stationary.

What are the odds it just putters north, then does a cyclonic loop after the trough misses it?

[Vdogg]

What first appeared as a NNE drift and then a northward motion, now seems to be part of some trochoidal motion. Question is, where will this 8-ball begin to really move. WNW or NNW?

My money is on due west. It made a full trochoidal loop and wound up just slightly more to the west than it was before. We’re probably back to that 1 mph westward drift.