ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Ken711]

18z Euro?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/9193f70597cee358703207f30a52d221.jpg



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That last data point on the Euro shifts slightly toward the OBX.

[Canelaw99]

I know the models have been forecasting a stall or slowing. I think the question is more how long was it going to be, per the models. I cannot fathom what those on Grand Bahama have faced the last 20+ hours. How much longer is it to continue?

[MacTavish]

Stall or major slowing began to appear on late Thursday .... or there about. Honestly I’m stunned at how well this has played out.

Even last night people were freaking out thinking the 5 mph would continue. And then it just stopped.

People were almost ready to discredit the official forecast yesterday when it was a few miles off track.. Today.. Crickets.

That being said its not over yet.

[pgoss11]

18z Euro?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/9193f70597cee358703207f30a52d221.jpg

Is that an error with the 18z Euro showing a north turn at hour 84?

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[tpinnola]

18z Euro?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/9193f70597cee358703207f30a52d221.jpg

Is that an error with the 18z Euro showing a north turn at hour 84?



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I sure hope so

[CFLHurricane]

Stall or major slowing began to appear on late Thursday .... or there about. Honestly I’m stunned at how well this has played out.

Even last night people were freaking out thinking the 5 mph would continue. And then it just stopped.

People were almost ready to discredit the official forecast yesterday when it was a few miles off track.. Today.. Crickets.

That being said its not over yet.

It’s hard to run a rumor mill when the darn thing isn’t moving

[invest man]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/9193f70597cee358703207f30a52d221.jpg

Is that an error with the 18z Euro showing a north turn at 84 hours?



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I sure hope so

[invest man]

Have not seen this discussed but the GFS has a landfall for days now either Wilmington or Morehead City. The NHC has it off shore along with Euro and CMC. I wonder if they will shift that track a little more in land and show a landfall in ENC soon since the HWRF and HMON are now either really close or landfalling it in ENC now. Also has anyone seen on what flooding is being expected on the Neuse and Trent Rivers near New Bern?

[hohnywx]

Have not seen this discussed but the GFS has a landfall for days now either Wilmington or Morehead City. The NHC has it off shore along with Euro and CMC. I wonder if they will shift that track a little more in land and show a landfall in ENC soon since the HWRF and HMON are now either really close or landfalling it in ENC now. Also has anyone seen on what flooding is being expected on the Neuse and Trent Rivers near New Bern?

Probably not unless the Euro inches westward. The hurricane models were some of the last to give up on the south Florida landfall idea.

[NCWeatherChic]

Have not seen this discussed but the GFS has a landfall for days now either Wilmington or Morehead City. The NHC has it off shore along with Euro and CMC. I wonder if they will shift that track a little more in land and show a landfall in ENC soon since the HWRF and HMON are now either really close or landfalling it in ENC now. Also has anyone seen on what flooding is being expected on the Neuse and Trent Rivers near New Bern?

I haven't heard but the app "Ready NC" is helpful when they do rise. It shows the current depth and what flood stage is. Useful info. I have a special needs son in a medically fragile facility in New Bern and these storms always concern me as they are right there in the midst.

[Bigwhitey]

So what is record for pages on a model discussion?

[HDGator]

Stall or major slowing began to appear on late Thursday .... or there about. Honestly I’m stunned at how well this has played out.

Even last night people were freaking out thinking the 5 mph would continue. And then it just stopped.

I'll put my hand up for that. Being right in line with the beast still marching west at 5mph and only 100nm from your home is a bit unnerving.
I stayed up until the stall was verified.
After sitting here all day only 90nm due west from the center of devastion east of me; it's still a bit surreal.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

So what is record for pages on a model discussion?

I think Irma

[ROCK]

So what is record for pages on a model discussion?

I think Irma

It was Katrina or Rita if I recall...Rita being sub 900 storm over the loop current.

[CronkPSU]

So what is record for pages on a model discussion?

I think Irma

just checked...yeah it had 510 pages

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Stall or major slowing began to appear on late Thursday .... or there about. Honestly I’m stunned at how well this has played out.

Even last night people were freaking out thinking the 5 mph would continue. And then it just stopped.

People were almost ready to discredit the official forecast yesterday when it was a few miles off track.. Today.. Crickets.

That being said its not over yet.

Models havent nailed anything...they are only adjusting to what doesnt happen. How can you say models know anything when 2 days ago they showed the storm being on land in florida??

My employer specifically shut its doors tommorrow because the forecast had it over our heads tonight..models were way wrong. Now they wanna extend the stall out another 12 hours when they never showed any at all before yesterday :

"Oh but the 6z showed it"....yeah after it decelerated to 4mph

[CronkPSU]

So what is record for pages on a model discussion?

I think Irma

It was Katrina or Rita if I recall...Rita being sub 900 storm over the loop current.

hey welcome back Rock! I checked the archives and don't see model threads for 2004 or 2005

[dukeblue219]

Models havent nailed anything...they are only adjusting to what doesnt happen. How can you say models know anything when 2 days ago they showed the storm being on land in florida??

My employer specifically shut its doors tommorrow because the forecast had it over our heads tonight..models were way wrong. Now they wanna extend the stall out another 12 hours when they never showed any at all before yesterday :

"Oh but the 6z showed it"....yeah after it decelerated to 4mph

Two days ago the models did not say it would be on land in Florida. They did not say it would be over your head tonight. You are incorrect.

Heres the GFS two days ago forecasting where the storm would be right now. It's really pretty accurate.

[tolakram]

Models havent nailed anything...they are only adjusting to what doesnt happen. How can you say models know anything when 2 days ago they showed the storm being on land in florida??

My employer specifically shut its doors tommorrow because the forecast had it over our heads tonight..models were way wrong. Now they wanna extend the stall out another 12 hours when they never showed any at all before yesterday :

"Oh but the 6z showed it"....yeah after it decelerated to 4mph

That's a little over the top don't you think?

Euro 12Z Friday August 30th showed the stall. The paid 6 hour plots showed it better. This was after all the upper air data had been ingested.

Current link (which will expire in a week)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2019083012&fh=36

Saved Image


You could have looked this up yourself. I'll take that level of model accuracy, it's about the best you can expect. Since then the Euro has been showing the stall every run, but maybe it's not obvious on the 24 hour public plots.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Models havent nailed anything...they are only adjusting to what doesnt happen. How can you say models know anything when 2 days ago they showed the storm being on land in florida??

My employer specifically shut its doors tommorrow because the forecast had it over our heads tonight..models were way wrong. Now they wanna extend the stall out another 12 hours when they never showed any at all before yesterday :

"Oh but the 6z showed it"....yeah after it decelerated to 4mph

That's a little over the top don't you think?

Euro 12Z Friday August 30th showed the stall. The paid 6 hour plots showed it better. This was after all the upper air data had been ingested.

Current link (which will expire in a week)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2019083012&fh=36

Saved Image
https://i.imgur.com/oSrGz8J.gif

You could have looked this up yourself. I'll take that level of model accuracy, it's about the best you can expect. Since then the Euro has been showing the stall every run, but maybe it's not obvious on the 24 hour public plots.

Something feels wrong. Keep a clear eye until it lifts.