ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[viberama]

I hope this is just a wobble but Dorian appears to be starting to drift southward.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Looks like a small wobble to me

[BobHarlem]

Here's a long replay of Matthew's Florida radar if anyone wants to compare (since a few folks were comparing it to Matthew's approach):

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?234

Dorian looks a lot better organized on radar than Matthew did, but Matthew was larger overall.

[O Town]

Still haven't heard anything from Josh yet. I'm starting to feel a little worried about his safety.

Forget who (SEASON_CANCELED?) but someone said they had heard Josh was OK. I don't believe any evidence was given in support of this, but there was no reason to believer the poster was otherwise wrong.

Check post #7270: said he heard Josh was shaken up, but ok.

Yes that’s who said it. Id like to know where he got that information. Just read on Twitter that the primary school shelter failed, where he was riding out the storm. Hopefully he’s ok and just in survival mode and we’ll hear from him soon.

[catskillfire51]

Here's a long replay of Matthew's Florida radar if anyone wants to compare (since a few folks were comparing it to Matthew's approach):

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?234

Dorian looks a lot better organized on radar than Matthew did.

Goes to show the strengthening that could take place once dorian starts going that way.

[ROCK]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1168682248511598594

Glad to see D Ortt still around met him and WXman57 at an old conference back in the day...Good guys...damn I am getting old:(( Upwelling and the EWRC taken a toll on D...

[CryHavoc]

Forget who (SEASON_CANCELED?) but someone said they had heard Josh was OK. I don't believe any evidence was given in support of this, but there was no reason to believer the poster was otherwise wrong.

Check post #7270: said he heard Josh was shaken up, but ok.

Yes that’s who said it. Id like to know where he got that information. Just read on Twitter that the primary school shelter failed, where he was riding out the storm. Hopefully he’s ok and just in survival mode and we’ll hear from him soon.

We should highly discourage this kind of rumor on S2k unless there is a way to source the information.

[DestinHurricane]

Who thinks this is going to miss the trough?

[boulderrr]

Who thinks this is going to miss the trough?

Literally none of the forecast models. Also, not the NHC. Also, not me.

[NCWeatherChic]

Here's a long replay of Matthew's Florida radar if anyone wants to compare (since a few folks were comparing it to Matthew's approach):

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?234

Dorian looks a lot better organized on radar than Matthew did, but Matthew was larger overall.

And that's what concerns me. I'm 88 miles inland and had substantial damage from wind driven rain and 2 weeks without power. Hoping it's not a repeat.

[PandaCitrus]

There was a report of a primary school shelter that failed but it was on one of the outlying cays, not Marsh Harbour where Josh rode out the storm. Also, according to Google Earth, the shelter Josh stayed at was at 25+ feet elevation, so likely high enough so the surge wasn't an issue. Of course, that leaves the 185+ winds and his last tweet indicated fear of the structure coming apart.

[hipshot]

Who thinks this is going to miss the trough?

To me, and I am not a trained meteorologist, but I need to see some evidence and right now I don't see it. That trough needs to get a move on and soon.
The longer this storm stays stationary, the tougher it is going to be to get pulled north, at least with this trough.

[drewschmaltz]

Who thinks this is going to miss the trough?

My vote is that the trough will pick up Dorian. We woke up this morning to find him stalled. I think tomorrow we will wake up and find him moving.

[KC7NEC]

Who thinks this is going to miss the trough?

My vote is that the trough will pick up Dorian. We woke up this morning to find him stalled. I think tomorrow we will wake up and find him moving.

This ^^ None of the models have him moving for the next 6 hours minimum... most are in the 10-12 hour range

[eastcoastFL]

The northern half of Dorian that is over water seems to be growing with quite a few new thunderstorms wrapping around

[Meteorcane]

Who thinks this is going to miss the trough?

To me, and I am not a trained meteorologist, but I need to see some evidence and right now I don't see it. That trough needs to get a move on and soon.
The longer this storm stays stationary, the tougher it is going to be to get pulled north, at least with this trough.

The storm is technically going to miss this trough, i.e. it will not be absorbed into the mid-latitude westerlies by it and drift northeastward OTS. That process will initiate with a mid-week shortwave (currently over Saskatchewan) and be completed by a late-week shortwave (currently the closed low near the Washington coast).

It will however feel the weakness created by this shortwave between the southern US ridge and the subtropical ridge and drift north between them.

[BobHarlem]

The northern half of Dorian that is over water seems to be growing with quite a few new thunderstorms wrapping around

How does that shallow water there support a storm like this? It can't upwell, but it has to be pushing the water around enough that some of the bays there are dry (and others way overfull).
South side of Grand Bahama is incredibly deep (several thousand feet), north side is like 1-10 feet.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/Bahamaspress/status/1168683966938976256

[eastcoastFL]

Remember folks, the Bahamas does not need a bunch of sailboats showing up loaded with random household items and used clothes. They don't need UPS'd boxes of bottled water. The logistics will interfere with large, meaningful relief efforts. The big relief agencies prefer cash for a reason.

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/29/54686656 ... s-to-match

I know it feels good to help, but if you can (and I need to get moving on this too) please just give money.

Also we still have 3 months left in hurricane season...it is certainly possible there could be another threatening storm.

And if you couldn’t afford to buy your supplies again then my all means keep them. But if you are fortunate enough to be able to help out then please please do

I gave away all of my supplies before I left. But my wife just made a cash donation. I was fortunate enough to be able to relocate my family to a safe city but I feel horrible for those unable to do so. I’ve been through quite a few canes but I don’t think anything compares to what is happening in the Bahamas. Michael was awful but at least it was moving!

[drewschmaltz]

https://twitter.com/Bahamaspress/status/1168683966938976256

I've seen some questionable articles by the Bahama press. Not that I don't believe them but abrasive and political for sure.

[HDGator]

Here's a long replay of Matthew's Florida radar if anyone wants to compare (since a few folks were comparing it to Matthew's approach):

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?234

Dorian looks a lot better organized on radar than Matthew did, but Matthew was larger overall.

And that's what concerns me. I'm 88 miles inland and had substantial damage from wind driven rain and 2 weeks without power. Hoping it's not a repeat.

I'm sitting right now 90nm due west of the center of Dorian and we're just getting breezy weather with occasional squalls and gusts up to maybe 25mph. The pier about 5 miles NE of me out into the open water had peak winds today of 40mph sustained and gusts to 56. That's the worst we've seen. Unless there's some real strengthening of Dorian coming off the Bahama's, you shouldn't be that bad off. I've been watching the doppler almost continuously and he looks the least organized since he made landfall in the Bahamas and definitely down in strength. Don't take me wrong, he's still a very dangerous storm and if he comes on or near shore the damage will be real; but he's not the monster that he was last night.

I just recommend that you watch his progress (or lack of progress) and listen to the NHC and your local authorities. Be prepared but patient.