EPAC: JULIETTE - Remnants

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/C8kU3kN.png

[Sciencerocks]

A chance that this could become a major hurricane. Will be close!

[Astromanía]

that's a great intensification for this season, EPAC is back!, maybe I will be to optimistic about this but I expect a category 4 from this, major status is garanted to happen now IMO.

[EquusStorm]

Clearly rapidly deepening, almost a guarantee for any EPac storm that really gets going. Pretty impressive, might easily hit cat 4. Always thought cat 2 was super conservative for this one.

[Astromanía]

It seems it will pass over Clarion island, so we will get official recorded winds and pressure most likely.

[Yellow Evan]

[Sciencerocks]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 030233
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Enhanced BD-curve infrared GOES-17 imagery shows that Juliette is
undergoing a rapid intensification evolution. An earlier GMI
microwave pass revealed that the eyewall has completed closed off,
and this is also visible in the infrared images as a -70C black
ring. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates yield 80 kt, but since that time, due to the much improved
inner core now depicted in imagery, the initial intensity is raised
to 100 kt.

Rapid strengthening should continue during the next 12 hours or so.
Beyond the short term intensification trend, Juliette is forecast to
continue to move within a favorable atmosphere consisting of low
deep-layer shear, a diffluent upper wind pattern, and warm oceanic
temperatures which should allow Juliette to strengthen a bit
further. Afterward, a steady weakening trend is forecast as
Juliette traverses cooler water and moves into a more stable, drier
marine layer air mass.

Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or
310/9 kt. The cyclone should continue moving generally
northwestward, or west-northwestward within the mid-tropospheric
steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to the north of
Juliette, and an upper-level low just to the west-southwest.
There's still quite a bit of across-track model spread beyond the 48
hour period in response to continued large-scale synoptic
dissimilarities in the strength of the subtropical ridge. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the
TVCE consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 17.8N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 19.4N 117.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 19.9N 119.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 21.4N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 23.0N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 24.1N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Yellow Evan]

100 knots might be a little bullish given how ragged its CDO is and assuming some lag.

[Astromanía]

Well third major hurricane of the season, Kingarabian this is definetely worth of watching. The estimated winds are also some bullish to me but we will see if we get some data from Clarion island

[Kingarabian]

100 knots might be a little bullish given how ragged its CDO is and assuming some lag.

If Dorian achieved major hurricane status with warmer tops and an inferior mw presentation last week, I'm sure Juliette is a major now.

[Kingarabian]

Well third major hurricane of the season, Kingarabian this is definetely worth of watching. The estimated winds are also some bullish to me but we will see if we get some data from Clarion island

For sure.

[Yellow Evan]

100 knots might be a little bullish given how ragged its CDO is and assuming some lag.

If Dorian achieved major hurricane status with warmer tops and an inferior mw presentation last week, I'm sure Juliette is a major now.

Dorian's eye was MUCH better defined that this is right now. Dorian maintained a 16C+ eye for several days despite having just meh cloud top temperatures which is insane and something I've seen only a handful of times in this basin.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 SEP 2019 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 17:47:24 N Lon : 113:48:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 975.5mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.4 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -15.3C Cloud Region Temp : -63.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

100 knots might be a little bullish given how ragged its CDO is and assuming some lag.

If Dorian achieved major hurricane status with warmer tops and an inferior mw presentation last week, I'm sure Juliette is a major now.

Dorian's eye was MUCH better defined that this is right now. Dorian maintained a 16C+ eye for several days despite having just meh cloud top temperatures which is insane and something I've seen only a handful of times in this basin.

Before it had that warm eye and when it was first designated a MH. It Was a rather ragged looking system with Dvorak lagging considerably. It changed my whole perspective.

[1900hurricane]

Did NHC actually go from 80 kt at 00Z to 100 kt at 03Z??

[Kingarabian]

Did NHC actually go from 80 kt at 00Z to 100 kt at 03Z??

Yup lol. I was shocked as well as they're usually conservative in these types of scenarios.

[Kingarabian]

[galaxy401]

Is that the largest gap between the Best Track and the actual advisory. That's quite a large difference! Especially since Juliette hasn't cleared the eye just yet.

[Astromanía]

nice!, with the Atlantic being active now some people would think that the pacific would be inactive in contrast but is not. This is the EPAC that we know. I think this is the first storm near Mexico coast that don't dissapoint this season.

[Chris90]

Did NHC actually go from 80 kt at 00Z to 100 kt at 03Z??

Yup lol. I was shocked as well as they're usually conservative in these types of scenarios.

I think they're just throwing out the whole book at this point after what has happened these past few seasons. Also, they're probably so focused on Dorian and what has happened these past few days that maybe they're not as focused on a storm like Juliette as they usually would be.
Also, maybe they're feeling a bit apprehensive about being so conservative with Juliette approaching Clarion after what happened with Ivo. Nobody was expecting the kind of wind readings from Clarion that Ivo managed to produce. Maybe they don't want to assign Juliette an 85kt intensity just to have it produce 110kt winds on Clarion, lol.
I feel bad for them, they're top-notch professionals, but these past few years it's like storms have been going out of their way to prove satellite intensity analysis wrong. Dvorak will estimate something like 130kts but storms are like "here's a 160kt SFMR value. You know nothing Jon Snow."

I'd say Juliette probably is a major. The eye isn't as pretty because her convective bursts have been pretty intense obscuring it. I'd guess that intense convection will take her to Cat 4 in the next 12 hours.