WPAC: LINGLING - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (LINGLING) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 021800Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE TIGHTLY WRAPPING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TS 15W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 15W IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR), LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR LOCATED TO THE EAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE FOR TS 15W IN THE SHORT TERM. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TS 15W TO
QUICKLY INTENSIFY, REACHING 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TS 15W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE ALONG TRACK SPEED OF TS 15W. NAVGEM IS THE
NOTABLE OUTLIER WHICH INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TRACK SPEED BY
TAU 72. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATE A SLOWER TRACK SPEED. THE
MODEL SPREAD BY TAU 72 IS 350 NM. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE LONG TERM, TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. AN APPROACHING WEST TO
EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE TS 15W
NORTHWARD. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE AGAIN OUTLIERS WITH REGARDS TO TRACK
SPEED. GFS INDICATES A SLOWER SPEED WHILE NAVGEM INDICATES A FASTER
TRACK SPEED. THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE TWO TRACKERS AT TAU 120 IS 610
NM. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//

[mrbagyo]

This system has a good chance of becoming a typhoon

Anyway, somebody needs to change the title of this thread.

[Hayabusa]

STS 1913 (Lingling)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 3 September 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 3 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°35' (19.6°)
E123°50' (123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 390 km (210 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)

[Hayabusa]

The WPAC looks very active with so many systems including invests but is there any one from these systems that would become a quality TC (>= major)?

[1900hurricane]

I'd say this one has a good chance at >=100 kt.

[mrbagyo]

James is chasing this in Okinawa.

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1168709033139638273

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like Lingling will directly pass through one of Taiwan's NTU buoys (NTU1) over the northern Philippine Sea.
The NTU1 buoy recorded sustained winds of 69kph (19.12 m/s) and a SLP near 993mb at 12 noon this Tuesday (Taiwan time).

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (LINGLING) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 022255Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 15W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE (5 TO
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, WHILE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 15W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR LOCATED TO THE EAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE FOR TS 15W THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TS 15W TO QUICKLY
INTENSIFY, REACHING 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT TS 15W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN TRACK NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE THE LAST MODEL RUN BUT
OVERALL AGREEMENT REMAINS POOR. NAVGEM IS AN OUTLIER TO THE WEST BY
TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY, GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE STILL INDICATE A
SLOWER TRACK SPEED. THE MODEL SPREAD BY TAU 72 IS 200 NM. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE LONG TERM, TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. AN APPROACHING WEST TO
EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE TS 15W
NORTHWARD. AS TS 15W TRACKS NORTHWARD IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BOTH A LARGE ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK DISAGREEMENT
WITH A SPREAD OF 400 NM. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY
TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (LINGLING) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 030716Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE,
HOWEVER, DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE ALTHOUGH THE WARNING POSITION
MAY BE SLIGHTLY (12NM) NNW OF THE ACTUAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55 TO 65 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 15W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE (5 TO
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, WHILE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 15W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR LOCATED TO THE EAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE FOR TS 15W THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TS 15W TO QUICKLY
INTENSIFY, REACHING 100 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT TS 15W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN TRACK NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
100NM SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 48 NEAR OKINAWA, THUS, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 03/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATES A SIMILAR SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE LONG TERM, TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. AN APPROACHING WEST TO
EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE TS 15W
NORTHWARD. AS TS 15W TRACKS NORTHWARD IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BOTH A LARGE ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK DISAGREEMENT
WITH A SPREAD OF 425 NM. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 030931

A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (LINGLING)

B. 03/0850Z

C. 21.23N

D. 124.13E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET/PT AGREE.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0425Z 20.77N 123.97E ATMS
03/0434Z 20.67N 124.13E AMS2
03/0514Z 20.77N 124.10E ATMS
03/0716Z 20.85N 124.18E SSMS


MARTIN

[euro6208]

Upgraded to a typhoon.

15W LINGLING 190903 0600 20.7N 124.1E WPAC 65 983

[1900hurricane]

Bulls-eye ASCAT pass, really good for setting wind radii.

[mrbagyo]

JMA upgrades Lingling to typhoon status



TY 1913 (Lingling)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 4 September 2019
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 4 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N22°30' (22.5°)
E124°25' (124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 280 km (150 NM)
NW 190 km (100 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 4 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°40' (22.7°)
E125°25' (125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slow
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 5 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°55' (23.9°)
E125°35' (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 6 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°10' (27.2°)
E125°20' (125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 7 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°50' (33.8°)
E124°30' (124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 8 September>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N42°00' (42.0°)
E129°00' (129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 986 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 430 km (230 NM)

[gatorcane]

Cool name for a storm. Had to click this thread just to say that

[1900hurricane]

Pretty big discrepancy in apparent organization between infrared and visible imagery. Considering the obvious nascent eye feature on visible imagery, I have a feeling it will lead the IR imagery. That's what I've found to be the case much of the time anyway. Goni '15 actually looked rather similar in about the same place. Microwave imagery also shows a system with an organizing and gradually contracting core.

[1900hurricane]

Guidance continues to really like strengthening Lingling well into the East China Sea. That's somewhat unusual for a WPac system to be peaking in there.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/WXappraiser/status/1169098487679438849



 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1169092128166727680

[Hayabusa]

Lingling looking good

2019SEP04 044000 5.4 956.0 99.6 5.0 5.6 5.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF -25.59 -69.16 EYE -99 IR 19.5 22.41 -124.90 FCST HIM-8 31.7

[1900hurricane]

Looking good on ATMS imagery too.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A RAGGED EYE, WHICH HAS
RECENTLY CLEARED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND A FORWARD EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 032241Z
91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED BUT
RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/4.5 FROM PGTW
AND RJTD AND THE REAPPEARANCE OF THE RAGGED EYE STRUCTURE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHWEST, GIVEN THAT MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 15W CONTINUES ITS TEMPORARY NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION, IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
NORTHEAST CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR TY 15W THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE STR
BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE WEST, TY 15W WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36
TO 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT TY 15W WILL
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEAR TERM, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE NORTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE LONG TERM, TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWARD WHILE BEING STEERED BY THE STR TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 48,
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE TY 15W TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA, BEGINNING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD BEYOND TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN