Tropical Wave near Cabo Verde Islands (Is INVEST 94L)

[Abdullah]

This should be Humberto, as it has got the same probability of development over the next 5 days as the other storm we're waiting on.

[cycloneye]

3. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of
days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Abdullah]

Comparison of where Irma was at this stage of its development.

https://web.archive.org/web/20170830231 ... lc&fdays=5

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very active Atlantic being shown by the ECMWF.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is sending this way west towards Bahamas in the long-range with a lot of ridging over the North Atlantic. Plenty of time to watch this one.

[SFLcane]

Yea those have my interest considering the latitude we shall see.

[TheStormExpert]

The overnight run of the 00z Euro showed another wave behind this one that may REALLY need to be watched more so than this one. For the sake of the NE Caribbean and Lesser Antilles, along with The Bahamas we better keep our fingers crossed that it's headed OTS at some point sooner rather than later!

The lid has finally come off folks!

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has a good image of Africa to see where is the wave? I ask because the Dundee ones were terminated. http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/geobrowse/geobrowse.php

[DioBrando]

This should be Humberto, as it has got the same probability of development over the next 5 days as the other storm we're waiting on.

92L?

[Florida1118]

The overnight run of the 00z Euro showed another wave behind this one that may REALLY need to be watched more so than this one. For the sake of the NE Caribbean and Lesser Antilles, along with The Bahamas we better keep our fingers crossed that it's headed OTS at some point sooner rather than later!

The lid has finally come off folks!

Perhaps certain posters will remember this for next year when July/Season Cancel Season comes around again

[SFLcane]

12z GFS has this wave developing into a hurricane nearing the islands.

[cycloneye]

Strong longtracker.

[SFLcane]

Long range but trof parked of the southeast should recurve in this run.

[gatorcane]

Long range but trof parked of the southeast should recurve in this run.

Yes but so far out in time we know the steering will likely change.

The GFS legacy shows a more ominous setup at 10 days.

[sma10]

The overnight run of the 00z Euro showed another wave behind this one that may REALLY need to be watched more so than this one. For the sake of the NE Caribbean and Lesser Antilles, along with The Bahamas we better keep our fingers crossed that it's headed OTS at some point sooner rather than later!

The lid has finally come off folks!

Perhaps certain posters will remember this for next year when July/Season Cancel Season comes around again

Nope. It's been this way since the invention of the internet. Short memories will always dominate

[AutoPenalti]

Long range but trof parked of the southeast should recurve in this run.

Way too early to tell, GFS showed the same thing yesterday only for it to keep it going due west in the next run... something to watch.

[canes92]

This best not come to FL.

[AnnularCane]

The overnight run of the 00z Euro showed another wave behind this one that may REALLY need to be watched more so than this one. For the sake of the NE Caribbean and Lesser Antilles, along with The Bahamas we better keep our fingers crossed that it's headed OTS at some point sooner rather than later!

The lid has finally come off folks!

Perhaps certain posters will remember this for next year when July/Season Cancel Season comes around again

Nope. It's been this way since the invention of the internet. Short memories will always dominate

Yeah, but I'll try and keep this in mind for future seasons so it can be brought up if needed. It seems to be a factor every year.

Or in case I need reminding myself.

[aperson]

Long range but trof parked of the southeast should recurve in this run.

Yes but so far out in time we know the steering will likely change.

The GFS legacy shows a more ominous setup at 10 days.

The pattern in the Arctic is very blocky atm with high variance in midlatitude jet stream flow, and I wouldn't put any faith in trough setup past about t=72.

[SFLcane]

TWO shows this recurving pretty quickly actually but we shall see.