ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Captkeith2]

Are there models/forecasts for storm surge other than the NHC interactive graphic ?

[tolakram]

On the 0Z Euro 6 hours plots the core of Dorian is very close to Wilmington, a significant left shift from the 12z but similar to the previous 0Z run.

[smithtim]

On the 0Z Euro 6 hours plots the core of Dorian is very close to Wilmington, a significant left shift from the 12z but similar to the previous 0Z run.

Yes, I think we're getting pretty solid consistency about the track next 48 hours or so and how passing FLa... of course these storms have a mind of there own and can do strange wobbles etc ( sometimes I think just taunting us ) so those of us in FLa shouldn't let gaurd down quite yet!

Now, does anybody have a link to a detailed storm surge model that's localized? I've seen the one on NHC just wondering if there are others out there??? Right now it's saying 3' at my house but other sources are saying 6-7'

[Powellrm]

Quick shout out to the mods and other posters on this website for professionalism and dedication. I don’t post often, but have been following closely for a number of years.

Anyways, I’ve been impressed w the accuracy of models and their prediction of timing and placement of Dorians stall. Not ignoring the threat to Florida by any means, but the GFS seems pretty insistent on NC, Wilmington specifically. Worrisome

[Emmett_Brown]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

[ROCK]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

The Euro runs a 06Z ? Wow I have been gone way to long

[birddogsc]

In general we should know more about the future track once Dorian moves. I deal with EM at my job and as volunteer, and the lack of movement is driving people crazy. Because forecasting and modeling has become so good, people discount that storms don't always follow the models. I have numerous conversations with folks this week explaining that until we get movement from the stall estimating the track is more difficult.

[Emmett_Brown]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

The Euro runs a 06Z ? Wow I have been gone way to long

Yeah, it now has 06Z and 18Z runs that go out 90 hours, which are only available via subscription but a few folks post them on twitter or give play by play descriptions from time to time

[MJGarrison]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

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[Carolinagirl18]

[quote="Powellrm"]Quick shout out to the mods and other posters on this website for professionalism and dedication. I don’t post often, but have been following closely for a number of years.

Anyways, I’ve been impressed w the accuracy of models and their prediction of timing and placement of Dorians stall. Not ignoring the threat to Florida by any means, but the GFS seems pretty insistent on NC, Wilmington
Are you talking land fall? I am in Carteret Co and everything I've seen is showing staying off our coast with the eye. I know wnds and rain will still be on us but can you post what is showing Wilmington. Thanks

[invest man]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/e4072c71dbf41eac120bef9402e34020.jpg

Is that a light shift west toward ENC?


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[ROCK]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

The Euro runs a 06Z ? Wow I have been gone way to long

Yeah, it now has 06Z and 18Z runs that go out 90 hours, which are only available via subscription but a few folks
post them on twitter or give play by play descriptions from time to time

Good to know..wasn’t like that in the old days. 230am CST waiting on the 0Z euro run was a killer...

[Vdogg]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/e4072c71dbf41eac120bef9402e34020.jpg

Is that a light shift west toward ENC?


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Yes. It actually came towards the GFS solution. They've been insistent on an OBX landfall.

[Vdogg]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/e4072c71dbf41eac120bef9402e34020.jpg

According to this we should see a large pick up in speed very soon.

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[invest man]

Quick shout out to the mods and other posters on this website for professionalism and dedication. I don’t post often, but have been following closely for a number of years.

Anyways, I’ve been impressed w the accuracy of models and their prediction of timing and placement of Dorians stall. Not ignoring the threat to Florida by any means, but the GFS seems pretty insistent on NC, Wilmington
Are you talking land fall? I am in Carteret Co and everything I've seen is showing staying off our coast with the eye. I know wnds and rain will still be on us but can you post what is showing Wilmington. Thanks

In New Bern. GFS has been insisting on a landfall around MHC-Cape Lookout. Appears Euro has shifted in that direction now.

[birddogsc]

Yikes, we don't need that run off the NC coast. Those folks still have not rebuilt.

[Powellrm]

Quick shout out to the mods and other posters on this website for professionalism and dedication. I don’t post often, but have been following closely for a number of years.

Anyways, I’ve been impressed w the accuracy of models and their prediction of timing and placement of Dorians stall. Not ignoring the threat to Florida by any means, but the GFS seems pretty insistent on NC, Wilmington
Are you talking land fall? I am in Carteret Co and everything I've seen is showing staying off our coast with the eye. I know wnds and rain will still be on us but can you post what is showing Wilmington. Thanks

The gfs continues to ere closer to NC and had been pretty consistent, but we’ll see when Dorian gets moving

[brghteys1216]

Not sure how good of a model it is, but the RGEM has a significant west shift in the 12Z, keeping it just miles off Florida.

[chaser1]

Not sure how good of a model it is, but the RGEM has a significant west shift in the 12Z, keeping it just miles off Florida.

Saw the same as well. Actually, I looked at most of the mesoscale models from Levi's Model page and nearly all (NAM included) did tend to show a slight westward shift closer to the Florida E. Coast. Also noted that each of those models depicted a little bit of restrengthening perhaps a result of the storm riding over the warmer Gulf Stream waters during the period. The former might suggest short term motion that many on this board have suggested as a result of some short term ridging that reinserts itself this evening into tomorrow, prior to a stronger established steering flow that begins to move the storm more north and northeast at increased forward speeds. I'm inclined to think that while the storm might deepen a little once again, that the dry air will equally mitigate much strengthening. All in all, I think it's prudent for those on the Florida east and northeast coastline to remain vigil for the next 24 hours.

[chris_fit]

I just want to give a shout out to the 'new and updated' GFS - It picked up on the N turn E of FL first. Yes it did go back to FL landfall for a while, but I consider this a win for the new GFS - Well Done