ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

That UL shortwave that came down yesterday and last night towards Dorian that infiltrated some dry air into Dorian's circulation is moving to west away from Dorian, you can start seeing the UL high cirrus clouds starting to better fan out on its northern quadrant and should eventually have a better presentation on its NW quadrant, I think it still has a good chance of getting back up to Cat 3 later tonight as it moves over the very warm gulf stream current and the NW moistens up some.

[viberama]

Time to start nowcasting to see how close or how far away from the FL coast Dorian will track over the next 36 hours. Heights are beginning to go up over the Carolinas momentarily before the next short wave knocks them down again, how strong that temporary narrow ridge builds during the day today and night will dictate how close it will get to our FL coast tonight, so now that Dorian's core is weaker the hurricane force winds at least in gusts could get closer to our coast.The incoming trough will finish opening up the path for Dorian to track towards the Carolinas.

https://i.imgur.com/IzoYClY.gif

100% agree. Also that trough is strong. The Upper Midwest had severe weather last night.

[NDG]

Time to start nowcasting to see how close or how far away from the FL coast Dorian will track over the next 36 hours. Heights are beginning to go up over the Carolinas momentarily before the next short wave knocks them down again, how strong that temporary narrow ridge builds during the day today and night will dictate how close it will get to our FL coast tonight, so now that Dorian's core is weaker the hurricane force winds at least in gusts could get closer to our coast.The incoming trough will finish opening up the path for Dorian to track towards the Carolinas.

https://i.imgur.com/IzoYClY.gif

100% agree. Also that trough is strong. The Upper Midwest had severe weather last night.

FL and or gulf coast got really luck (at least so far) from a direct landfall from Dorian that the pattern this summer has been of lots of short waves cruising across from the upper mid west to the great lakes to keep the Bermuda ridge from finding a home for too long across the mid Atlantic and NE US.

[ava_ati]

The first significant outer band of Dorian.is currently impacting Saint Johns County and in particular Flagler County around Palm Coast currenty with heavy rainfall and strong winds . I am pretty sure they are bringing tropical storm force wind gusts currently.

I just had northeast wind gust to 31 mph already here at the home
station.

BTW, I have made the decision to ride out the conditions here at home. I thought seriously of leaving, but.last night' s developments and NHC taking Jax area out of the cone of uncertainty, I decided to stay. However , it still it will be some very significant impacts coming, especially the next 30 hours as Dorian makes his closest approach to Jax.

I will do my best to keep everyone abreasted to the conditions here as I am safely able to do so.

According to the NWS this weather is actually a nor'easter setting up ahead of Dorian https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

Gusty northeast winds will increase to
near 15-25 mph by later this morning mainly over the eastern
zones. Gusts today around 30-40 mph for the coastal areas. Have
bumped up winds a bit from the prior forecast as northeaster sets
in ahead of Dorian. Have updated the forecast early low coverage
of showers as some drier air is noted in the soundings and
satellite imagery. However, increasing potential for showers as
rainbands approach from the southeast through the day and tonight.

[ronjon]

hmmmm..... furthering the nowcasting.... I think a unforecast mid level low has formed over NE florida that is moving sw.. you can see the outflow and moisture the last couple hours all of a sudden expand ans spread to the nw..

that is interesting.. becasue if that feature is truly there thenDOrian may take a larger nw bend later as that feature drops to the SW of dorian..

keep watching. wont get to the FLorida coast but could bring it even closer.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Yeah I thought it was a feeder band but we're getting a blow up in convection over west-central Florida now which must be being enhanced by the lift from the mid-level low.

[toad strangler]

Down to 110 mph Steong Cat 2.

Yeah dry airontinues getting entrained into the eestern eyewall. It is been thzt way since I woke up at 4 a.m. this morning.

Storm continues to expand as expected in size. Teopical Storm gorce winds will ecpand as far as 170 miles from the eyewall by this evening.

Hope you are breathing a bit easier JAX.

Well, only just a little bit. However GCANE, I won't feel 100% better until Dorian gets north of 30.2 N, which is Jacksonville's Latitude.

Are you right on the coast?

[northjaxpro]

That UL shortwave that came down yesterday and last night towards Dorian that infiltrated some dry air into Dorian's circulation is moving to west away from Dorian, you can start seeing the UL high cirrus clouds starting to better fan out on its northern quadrant and should eventually have a better presentation on its NW quadrant, I think it still has a good chance of getting back up to Cat 3 later tonight as it moves over the very warm gulf stream current and the NW moistens up some.

https://i.imgur.com/k9IwuTL.gif

Yeah NDG it will probably be tonight when Dorian wlll begin traversing over the Gulf Stream.Current. Dorian still has a solid structure, despite the weakening earlier this morning. He very well can get easily back to Cat 3 status later tonight or early Wednesday.

[JtSmarts]

I've been watching the evolution of Dorian's size and comparing it to other notable hurricanes of past. According to the latest NHC advisory, Dorian's H-winds extend 30 miles from the center and ts winds extend 105 miles from the center. The best comparisons right now are Andrew while he was between South Florida and the Bahamas, and Charley (2004) near landfall in Punta Gorda. Both had similar wind field expansion.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/p ... .018.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_ ... al0492.031

To update, Dorian has expanded and H-Winds now extend 45 miles from the center and tropical storm winds now extend 145 miles from the center.

Dorian has a very similar size to Andrew at FL landfall (45/140) and Michael at landfall (45/175),

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_ ... al0492.032
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/a ... .016.shtml?

Another Update: Dorian has expanded and H-Winds now extend 60 miles from the center and tropical storm winds now extend 175 miles from the center.

One of the best current comparisons for Dorian is Matthew along the east coast (60/185)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/a ... .040.shtml?
Another close comparison is Georges 1998 along the Gulf coast (70/175)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/1998/a ... AL0798.052

[ava_ati]

That UL shortwave that came down yesterday and last night towards Dorian that infiltrated some dry air into Dorian's circulation is moving to west away from Dorian, you can start seeing the UL high cirrus clouds starting to better fan out on its northern quadrant and should eventually have a better presentation on its NW quadrant, I think it still has a good chance of getting back up to Cat 3 later tonight as it moves over the very warm gulf stream current and the NW moistens up some.

I don't know it has quite a bit of shear ahead of it, which is forecast to weaken some, but I am not sure if it will be able to get Cat 3 winds in its core as much as spreading its wind radius out away from it.

[jhpigott]

Any new video from Abaco or Grand Bahama? Or any updates about Icyclone (Josh)?

Had my 1st power flicker with this last squall in the Jupiter area. Gusting 35-40

[Kazmit]

Classic transition from a small intense hurricane to a larger, sloppier (but still dangerous) hurricane.

[gatorcane]

Time to start nowcasting to see how close or how far away from the FL coast Dorian will track over the next 36 hours. Heights are beginning to go up over the Carolinas momentarily before the next short wave knocks them down again, how strong that temporary narrow ridge builds during the day today and night will dictate how close it will get to our FL coast tonight, so now that Dorian's core is weaker the hurricane force winds at least in gusts could get closer to our coast.The incoming trough will finish opening up the path for Dorian to track towards the Carolinas.

https://i.imgur.com/IzoYClY.gif

100% agree. Also that trough is strong. The Upper Midwest had severe weather last night.

FL and or gulf coast got really luck (at least so far) from a direct landfall from Dorian that the pattern this summer has been of lots of short waves cruising across from the upper mid west to the great lakes to keep the Bermuda ridge from finding a home for too long across the mid Atlantic and NE US.

I was surprised Florida had a threat from the east this year but not surprised Dorian did not landfall (still a small chance but doesn’t look likely) and head towards GOM. The Bermuda High has been much less pronounced this year than recent years past. I still believe any more Florida threats which could landfall in Florida would be from the south not the east.

[CaneCurious]

Any new video from Abaco or Grand Bahama? Or any updates about Icyclone (Josh)?

Had my 1st power flicker with this last squall in the Jupiter area. Gusting 35-40

Josh has been placed on the Missing Person’s list. I’ve been listening to the Bahamas radio and it’s devastating.

[hurricaneCW]

The Euro shows the core reorganizing after it moves further from the upwelled water while the GFS maintains current intensity and then slowly weakens him.

Given how badly the core was disrupted it's possible the GFS is correct. In addition the wind shield should gradually expand over time as it no longer has a stable inner core.

A larger storm and close proximity to the Carolinas will lead to greater surge and flooding risks, less of a wind threat.

I think he can get as high as a 120mph Cat 3 but will more likely hang where he is now or slightly lower (100-105mph).

Note that a weaker, but much larger storm can be just as problematic if not moreso so than a smaller, more intense system...see Ike.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Glad to see its weakening. Hopefully it doesnt move too much too quickly so it can choke itself with the cooler upwelling water. Hopefully it can penetrate to the eye core and rapidly die down before moving again. I havent checked yet, it's possible this has already happened

[northjaxpro]

The first significant outer band of Dorian.is currently impacting Saint Johns County and in particular Flagler County around Palm Coast currenty with heavy rainfall and strong winds . I am pretty sure they are bringing tropical storm force wind gusts currently.

I just had northeast wind gust to 31 mph already here at the home
station.

BTW, I have made the decision to ride out the conditions here at home. I thought seriously of leaving, but.last night' s developments and NHC taking Jax area out of the cone of uncertainty, I decided to stay. However , it still it will be some very significant impacts coming, especially the next 30 hours as Dorian makes his closest approach to Jax.

I will do my best to keep everyone abreasted to the conditions here as I am safely able to do so.

According to the NWS this weather is actually a nor'easter setting up ahead of Dorian https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

Gusty northeast winds will increase to
near 15-25 mph by later this morning mainly over the eastern
zones. Gusts today around 30-40 mph for the coastal areas. Have
bumped up winds a bit from the prior forecast as northeaster sets
in ahead of Dorian. Have updated the forecast early low coverage
of showers as some drier air is noted in the soundings and
satellite imagery. However, increasing potential for showers as
rainbands approach from the southeast through the day and tonight.

The nor'easter setup actually developed yesterday. We had strong convergent northeast rain bands coming ashore yesterday way out ahead of Dorian. I received over an inch of rain in one of those bands yesterday.

Dorian is more involved with the nor' esater now as it is closer to the region obviously anf tightening the wind gradient even more now and wlll continue to do so until the hurricane passes by Jax tomorrow night

[Hurricaneman]

It’s finally stopped loitering and is on the move to the nw at 310 according to what I’m seeing and looks like a large hurricane now

[StormingB81]

It could be my eyes but it seems on radar the eye is moving closer to the Florida coast and I say tho because if it goes north west it may get really close to cape canaveral. Like I said maybe it’s me.

[TheDreamTraveler]

If this was posted by anyone else I would be cracking up with laughter. But since it's you... is that even possible? I know hurricanes are heat-exchangers, but that just seems ridiculous. The latent heat of fusion of water (for the phase change from 0 celcius water to 0 celcius ice) is 334 joules per gram. That is three times more than is needed to cool the water from 27 degrees to 0 degrees celcius (27 * 4.184 J/g = 112.968 J/g).

Honestly, doesn't pass the sniff test.

In terms of a physical science perspective it makes sense, of course very extreme result of conservation but 185 mph is extreme, i.e. for any action there is an equal an opposite reaction.

This is actually quite interesting and kind of speaks to the importance of considering the ocean depth as a boundary condition within the PDEs which explain the underlying mathematics which create all the gfs, euro etc models.

OR, it could just be a joke, as WXman57 posted in an earlier comment.

The hard thing about typing out a message is it's sometimes almost impossible to detect sarcasm. Which kinda sucks it's that hard, that's why a lot of time people will type /s at the end, though people end up doing that ironically anyway lol

[Raebie]

Any new video from Abaco or Grand Bahama? Or any updates about Icyclone (Josh)?

Had my 1st power flicker with this last squall in the Jupiter area. Gusting 35-40

Josh has been placed on the Missing Person’s list. I’ve been listening to the Bahamas radio and it’s devastating.

Do you have a link you can share? So much misinformation on Twitter.