ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

100% agree. Also that trough is strong. The Upper Midwest had severe weather last night.

FL and or gulf coast got really luck (at least so far) from a direct landfall from Dorian that the pattern this summer has been of lots of short waves cruising across from the upper mid west to the great lakes to keep the Bermuda ridge from finding a home for too long across the mid Atlantic and NE US.

I was surprised Florida had a threat from the east this year but not surprised Dorian did not landfall (still a small chance but doesn’t look likely) and head towards GOM. The Bermuda High has been much less pronounced this year than recent years past. I still believe any more Florida threats which could landfall in Florida would be from the south not the east.

Great point and you’ve said it for awhile. Looking back it takes very anomalous setups to get a MDR strike from the East into FL.

[TheDreamTraveler]

It could be my eyes but it seems on radar the eye is moving closer to the Florida coast and I say tho because if it goes north west it may get really close to cape canaveral. Like I said maybe it’s me.

It is supposed to head northwest, well more NNW. NHC has it moving NW at 2mph with its last advisory.

[northjaxpro]

Hope you are breathing a bit easier JAX.

Well, only just a little bit. However GCANE, I won't feel 100% better until Dorian gets north of 30.2 N, which is Jacksonville's Latitude.

Are you right on the coast?

I am 17 miles inland from the coast.

[plasticup]

Any new video from Abaco or Grand Bahama? Or any updates about Icyclone (Josh)?

Had my 1st power flicker with this last squall in the Jupiter area. Gusting 35-40

Josh has been placed on the Missing Person’s list. I’ve been listening to the Bahamas radio and it’s devastating.

Do you have a link you can share? So much misinformation on Twitter.

This article is in Spanish, but Josh Morgerman is officially missing.

[drewschmaltz]

Any new video from Abaco or Grand Bahama? Or any updates about Icyclone (Josh)?

Had my 1st power flicker with this last squall in the Jupiter area. Gusting 35-40

Josh has been placed on the Missing Person’s list. I’ve been listening to the Bahamas radio and it’s devastating.

Do you have a link you can share? So much misinformation on Twitter.

The missing person list is an informal list maintained on Google Docs that was born from a Facebook post. It's a great list but the requirements to be put on the list is that anyone in the world can add you. And anyone can check that you were found. So....

[PandaCitrus]

There's plenty of video on facebook and twitter. Search for Abaco, Freeport. The facebook Abaco Island group has 10,000 members and lots of videos and pictures.

For 185 MPH Direct Hit, many of the newer homes don't have that much structural damage aside from blown out windows and moderate roof/wall. The metal roofs held out very well also. Substandard housing older housing did not do as well and was demolished.

Building Codes work if you can afford to build a house to that standard.

Any new video from Abaco or Grand Bahama? Or any updates about Icyclone (Josh)?

Had my 1st power flicker with this last squall in the Jupiter area. Gusting 35-40

[StormingB81]

It could be my eyes but it seems on radar the eye is moving closer to the Florida coast and I say tho because if it goes north west it may get really close to cape canaveral. Like I said maybe it’s me.

It is supposed to head northwest, well more NNW. NHC has it moving NW at 2mph with its last advisory.

I know I was just stating that liking at radar the eye seems to be moving west. We may get a close call tonight but I still don’t think anything too bad

[Emmett_Brown]

Intermittent sun and fast moving showers in EC FL. Wind seems to be picking up a bit; the sun's heat mixing down an occasional fitful gust, followed by stillness for a bit. Weather is an essential contradiction; sometimes beauty and horror are spun together inseparably.

[NDG]

That UL shortwave that came down yesterday and last night towards Dorian that infiltrated some dry air into Dorian's circulation is moving to west away from Dorian, you can start seeing the UL high cirrus clouds starting to better fan out on its northern quadrant and should eventually have a better presentation on its NW quadrant, I think it still has a good chance of getting back up to Cat 3 later tonight as it moves over the very warm gulf stream current and the NW moistens up some.

I don't know it has quite a bit of shear ahead of it, which is forecast to weaken some, but I am not sure if it will be able to get Cat 3 winds in its core as much as spreading its wind radius out away from it.

https://i.imgur.com/OdRerIy.png

I really don't like using that shear map when we have a well developed system like Dorian, yesterday morning it showing 25-30 knots of shear over it when it was still a Cat 4/5

[chaser1]

That UL shortwave that came down yesterday and last night towards Dorian that infiltrated some dry air into Dorian's circulation is moving to west away from Dorian, you can start seeing the UL high cirrus clouds starting to better fan out on its northern quadrant and should eventually have a better presentation on its NW quadrant, I think it still has a good chance of getting back up to Cat 3 later tonight as it moves over the very warm gulf stream current and the NW moistens up some.

https://i.imgur.com/k9IwuTL.gif

Boy, and is this even that much more pronounced while looking at the interaction just off the Georgia coast. Definitely suggests that high pressure at least in the upper levels is building back in, at least temporarily. I'm not sure if this is the ridge building back in within the near-term or more a result of Dorian creeping north enough to tap into warmer SST's and the beginning of some minor re-intensification? Aric, you may be right about some mid level cut-off over N.E. Florida but when I looked at it was thinking that it looked more like an eddy caused by the bulging ridge pushing back to the west. 'Course if you're right, then yeah any southwest moving cut-off might well imply a bit of a westward tug as Dorian moves slowly north along the Florida coastline. A 20-40 mile shift to the west would certainly have implications on conditions over East Florida (especially if restrengthening a bit).

[toad strangler]

Josh has been placed on the Missing Person’s list. I’ve been listening to the Bahamas radio and it’s devastating.

Do you have a link you can share? So much misinformation on Twitter.

The missing person list is an informal list maintained on Google Docs that was born from a Facebook post. It's a great list but the requirements to be put on the list is that anyone in the world can add you. And anyone can check that you were found. So....

He will show up in grand style having helped rescue many and ink 8 more episodes of Hurricane Man.

[NDG]

Big time beach erosion now going on in FL's east coast, look at the comparison from yesterday morning at the same time during high tides:

[northjaxpro]

That UL shortwave that came down yesterday and last night towards Dorian that infiltrated some dry air into Dorian's circulation is moving to west away from Dorian, you can start seeing the UL high cirrus clouds starting to better fan out on its northern quadrant and should eventually have a better presentation on its NW quadrant, I think it still has a good chance of getting back up to Cat 3 later tonight as it moves over the very warm gulf stream current and the NW moistens up some.

https://i.imgur.com/k9IwuTL.gif

Boy, and is this even that much more pronounced while looking at the interaction just off the Georgia coast. Definitely suggests that high pressure at least in the upper levels is building back in, at least temporarily. I'm not sure if this is the ridge building back in within the near-term or more a result of Dorian creeping north enough to tap into warmer SST's and the beginning of some minor re-intensification? Aric, you may be right about some mid level cut-off over N.E. Florida but when I looked at it was thinking that it looked more like an eddy caused by the bulging ridge pushing back to the west. 'Course if you're right, then yeah any southwest moving cut-off might well imply a bit of a westward tug as Dorian moves slowly north along the Florida coastline. A 20-40 mile shift to the west would certainly have implications on conditions over East Florida (especially if restrengthening a bit).

Precisely Chaser. This is why I am still a bit on edge.

[txwatcher91]

Radar is already showing some significant improvement in the overall appearance of the circulation. I expect Dorian will start to organize throughout the day and next 24-36 hours as it hits the warmer waters to the north.

[tolakram]

Josh has been placed on the Missing Person’s list. I’ve been listening to the Bahamas radio and it’s devastating.

Do you have a link you can share? So much misinformation on Twitter.

This article is in Spanish, but Josh Morgerman still does not appear.

There's nothing official in that article as far as I can tell. The title of the article is Hurricane Hunter Josh Morgerman still does not appear

Let's stop the Josh posts unless we get verifiable information from an official source..

[BlowHard]

After seeing what PR went through after Hurricanes Irma and Maria, I want to stress that non government relief agencies are your LAST good option for relief efforts. You send five boats over to the Bahamas with supplies and you have an unorganized relief effort, possibly never reaching those in most need. You have the crew of those five boats needing limited resources, ie water, food, GAS, etc. These kinds of relief efforts are a MINUS and not a plus. Find a good relief agency and send MONEY. It's great to want to help but there are already heros who do this and they have done it many times...as part of a well organized relief organization. You and your sailboat are not the answer....They need PLANE LOADS of relief items, not boat loads.

I've also seen fraud at the highest levels and a slow moving train from said organizations and or governments. I see nothing wrong with organized groups of people helping. See the Cajun Navy as an example. Often times these groups can and do help with immediate relief and help. I've seen both sides of it. As the mods said, do your vetting first.

Cajun Navy aside, send money. I mean, if you've been through a hurricane on an island and had a different experience, great, more power to you. My experience is with a hurricane on an island. No driving there.

[1900hurricane]

The core pressure gradient is so blown out now.

[SconnieCane]

Big time beach erosion now going on in FL's east coast, look at the comparison from yesterday morning at the same time during high tides:

https://i.imgur.com/pa6KWCL.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/G6FC4eU.jpg

Is it me or does the roof of that house look a little beat up, too? Of course that could have been done by an earlier system such as Matthew.

[PandaCitrus]

Eyewall is showing signs of organization in the last hour on radar and the center is starting to encounter deeper water with higher oceanic heat content. Something to watch.

[tolakram]

The core pressure gradient is so blown out now.

I'm recalling Ike. Big, lumbering, dangerous, and the core never recovered.