ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sikkar]

The core pressure gradient is so blown out now.

What does it mean? Good or bad for Dorian?

[Vdogg]

Storm is getting huge on IR and you can tell it's really fighting hard to re-establish that core.

[NDG]

Big time beach erosion now going on in FL's east coast, look at the comparison from yesterday morning at the same time during high tides:

https://i.imgur.com/pa6KWCL.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/G6FC4eU.jpg

Is it me or does the roof of that house look a little beat up, too? Of course that could have been done by an earlier system such as Matthew.

Is mold, they need to clean it up, very importan lol.

[SconnieCane]

The core pressure gradient is so blown out now.

What does it mean? Good or bad for Dorian?

Bad for Dorian in terms of becoming a high-end major again, but possibly spreading out the impacts. Bigger storms can move more water even without a violent core as has been seen many times with infamous storms including Katrina, Ike and Sandy. Also a big worry with Irma when it got large although fortunately it wasn't fully realized.

[birddogsc]

Eyewall is showing signs of organization in the last hour on radar and the center is starting to encounter deeper water with higher oceanic heat content. Something to watch.

The last few frames of the 248mi returns from Melbourne shows the eye mostly closed again. If that will hold, we will have to wait and see.

[northjaxpro]

Eyewall is showing signs of organization in the last hour on radar and the center is starting to encounter deeper water with higher oceanic heat content. Something to watch.

Yes good observation. Also the eyewall 's overrall appearance on radar has shown.marked improvement the past couple of hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Eye contracting and convection filling in.. you can see the outline of the center again..

[drewschmaltz]

The core pressure gradient is so blown out now.

What does it mean? Good or bad for Dorian?

Think of it like a topography map. The more the change over a short period the more steep. That equates to wind speed. But it's horizontal distance is short. That's a small wind field. Stretch our your topography map and you've got yourself a nice day hike. But, the wind field is much larger. Now, let that pull together again with a sharp pressure gradient at the core and you have a bigger, intense hurricane. For the mainland of the US, and following NHC, the core will remain mostly off shore. That means we are interested in how far the winds are spread out. We don't want a day hike over here. We want the vertical rock climb to stay out in the ocean. But that's no longer an option and God help the Bahamas.

[NDG]

Winds are starting to come up near the Cocoa Beach area in Brevard county.
Patrick AFB:

Conditions at: KCOF observed 03 September 2019 14:56 UTC
Temperature: 29.6°C (85°F)
Dewpoint: 26.1°C (79°F) [RH = 82%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.72 inches Hg (1006.5 mb)
Winds: from the NNE (20 degrees) at 26 MPH (23 knots; 12.0 m/s)
gusting to 37 MPH (32 knots; 16.6 m/s)
Visibility: 10 or more miles (16+ km)
Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL
Clouds: sky clear below 12,000 feet AGL
Present Weather:
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance

[tropicwatch]

Dorian's pressure might have leveled off and stopped rising.
Time: 16:37:00Z
Coordinates: 27.383N 78.550W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.0 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,756 m (9,042 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 957.4 mb (28.28 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 116° at 2 kts (From the ESE at 2.3 mph)
Air Temp: 12.7°C (54.9°F)
Dew Pt: 9.9°C (49.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 kts (5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 12 kts (13.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (0.24 in/hr)

A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 14:56:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.20N 78.48W
B. Center Fix Location: 103 statute miles (166 km) to the ENE (71°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,714m (8,904ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 958mb (28.29 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 25° at 7kts (From the NNE at 8mph)

[chaser1]

The core pressure gradient is so blown out now.

Right? Though I still think that some re-intensification can occur but given the very broad eye and the overall much broader pressure gradient beyond the eye, any restrengthening that might occur would be a hell of a lot slower then the type of RI within much tighter systems (including Dorian's former self). Perhaps a 6-12 mb deepening as it progresses generally NW during the next 36 hours? Seem's that it would take some work and a good deal more time to really have significant contraction of it's eye though. I'd guess that probably isn't gonna happen. Some minor deepening and increased integrity of it's eye wall doesn't seem unreasonable however.

[Raebie]

Josh has been placed on the Missing Person’s list. I’ve been listening to the Bahamas radio and it’s devastating.

Do you have a link you can share? So much misinformation on Twitter.

The missing person list is an informal list maintained on Google Docs that was born from a Facebook post. It's a great list but the requirements to be put on the list is that anyone in the world can add you. And anyone can check that you were found. So....

Thanks, but I meant a link to the radio station.

[SconnieCane]

My God, the circular perfection of that eye as it crossed Abaco and the east end of Grand Bahama. Five more miles' westward progression before the stall and this thing would have leveled Freeport (not that it's not already bad enough there).

 https://twitter.com/CristCacewx/status/1168621908088283138

[wxman57]

Taking a break from advisories. Looks like recon isn't finding any winds higher than about 80 kts now. Definitely on the move. I measure about 6 kts.

[chaser1]

The core pressure gradient is so blown out now.

I'm recalling Ike. Big, lumbering, dangerous, and the core never recovered.

I don't really remember but to what extent did increasing upper level shear play a part there? To your point though, I think back to Hurricane David in '79. Actually landfalled up around Ft. Peirce (I think). I was in Kendall at the time and although the storm's approach was from the S.E. and not as close to Miami, you would've been hard pressed to even know there was a T.S. nearby much less a hurricane. That storm gave and took a beating from hitting the D.R. and never quite recovered either (the hurricane with "no western half")

[NDG]

That didn't take long for the eye to close again. Is on its way back to Cat 3, IMO.

[tropicwatch]

Taking a break from advisories. Looks like recon isn't finding any winds higher than about 80 kts now. Definitely on the move. I measure about 6 kts.

At 1pm NHC calling it NW at 3

[northjaxpro]

The core pressure gradient is so blown out now.

I'm recalling Ike. Big, lumbering, dangerous, and the core never recovered.

I don't really remember but to what extent did increasing upper level shear play a part there? To your point though, I think back to Hurricane David in '79. Actually landfalled up around Ft. Peirce (I think). I was in Kendall at the time and although the storm's approach was from the S.E. and not as close to Miami, you would've been hard pressed to even know there was a T.S. nearby much less a hurricane. That storm gave and took a beating from hitting the D.R. and never quite recovered either (the hurricane with "no western half")

Actually David briefly landfalled at Palm Beach .

[GCANE]

[sponger]

That didn't take long for the eye to close again. Is on its way back to Cat 3, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/KSKALd1.gif

Definitely feeling the warmer water.