EPAC: JULIETTE - Remnants

[Highteeld]

any obs from that island?

[cycloneye]

Discussion mention obervations from Clarion Island.

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Satellite images show that Juliette continues to rapidly intensify,
with a distinct eye becoming apparent in addition to a more
symmetric cloud pattern. The center of the eye moved just southwest
of Clarion Island a few hours ago, bringing 89-kt sustained winds
and a wind gust to 113 kt according to data from the Mexican Navy.
A blend of the subjective and objective satellite estimates gives an
initial wind speed of 110 kt for this advisory. Some further
strengthening is possible today before Juliette moves over marginal
waters, with continued weakening likely afterward through the end
of the forecast period due to cooling sea-surface temperatures.
Intensity guidance has come into good agreement since the past
advisory, and no significant changes were required to the last NHC
forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 305/7 kt. A large ridge over the
southwestern United States should provide a steady steering current
during the next several days, gradually bending the hurricane
westward with time. Model guidance is tightly clustered, with only
minor long-range differences in how sharply the cyclone turns
westward. The new NHC track prediction is very close to the
previous one through 72 h. There's been a subtle westward model
shift at days 4 and 5, so the NHC forecast follows that trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.4N 115.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 118.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 20.6N 120.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 22.2N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Astromanía]

Glad the ACE for this basin is now increasing in a good rhythm

[Yellow Evan]

Its core seems to be struggling atm.

[Astromanía]

Its core seems to be struggling atm.

EWRC?

[Astromanía]

She is really strugling, sad it won´t reach cat 4 most probably but well at least it atchieved major status and for her location it was a surprise so far this season, still bringing ACE to this season.

[Hurricane Jed]

Becoming a high end Cat 3 is still impressive

[cycloneye]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019

Juliette has not produced any deep convection for almost 18 hours,
and it is therefore being declared a post-tropical cyclone. A
recent ASCAT-C pass showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds to the
north of the center, and the initial intensity is therefore being
set at 35 kt. A gradual spin down of the circulation is expected
with Juliette remaining over waters of 24-25C during the next couple
of days. After 48 hours, water temperatures do increase a bit to
near 26C, but by then incredibly belligerent westerly shear, on the
order of 40-50 kt, is expected to be affecting the remnant low.
Still, the global models carry a low through the next 5 days, and
that is reflected in the official forecast.

The initial motion is 280/11 kt. The low should turn on a due west
heading for the next 2-3 days, steered by the low-level trade
winds. After day 3, the remnant low is expected to interact with a
mid- to upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which
could cause it to turn northwestward and slow down by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 24.4N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

[TallyTracker]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019

Juliette has not produced any deep convection for almost 18 hours,
and it is therefore being declared a post-tropical cyclone. A
recent ASCAT-C pass showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds to the
north of the center, and the initial intensity is therefore being
set at 35 kt. A gradual spin down of the circulation is expected
with Juliette remaining over waters of 24-25C during the next couple
of days. After 48 hours, water temperatures do increase a bit to
near 26C, but by then incredibly belligerent westerly shear, on the
order of 40-50 kt, is expected to be affecting the remnant low.
Still, the global models carry a low through the next 5 days, and
that is reflected in the official forecast.

The initial motion is 280/11 kt. The low should turn on a due west
heading for the next 2-3 days, steered by the low-level trade
winds. After day 3, the remnant low is expected to interact with a
mid- to upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which
could cause it to turn northwestward and slow down by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 24.4N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

I found the wording “incredibly belligerent” to be an funny description of the wind shear to come. I love how the NHC forecasters like to spice it up every now and then!