ATL: DORIAN - Models

[boulderrr]

12Z Euro has trended west with GA and Carolinas track:

[TheDreamTraveler]

12Z Euro has trended west with GA and Carolinas track:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090312/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_3.png

Definitely west. Pretty interesting...

[aperson]

12Z Euro has trended west with GA and Carolinas track:

Euro (and most other models) continuing to do what it seems to do with synoptics throughout the past several days of Dorian's life: Amplify everything. Stronger ridges, stronger trough for capture. Ridges win in the short term before the capture gets there and track is further W with a major Carolinas threat on this run. I could see Georgia coming into play at this point too.

[Airboy]

That was a pretty big step west

[TheDreamTraveler]

Still ends up riding the North Carolina coast eventually. And once again any little shift west could move this inland at this point.

[northjaxpro]

Not sure how good of a model it is, but the RGEM has a significant west shift in the 12Z, keeping it just miles off Florida.

Saw the same as well. Actually, I looked at most of the mesoscale models from Levi's Model page and nearly all (NAM included) did tend to show a slight westward shift closer to the Florida E. Coast. Also noted that each of those models depicted a little bit of restrengthening perhaps a result of the storm riding over the warmer Gulf Stream waters during the period. The former might suggest short term motion that many on this board have suggested as a result of some short term ridging that reinserts itself this evening into tomorrow, prior to a stronger established steering flow that begins to move the storm more north and northeast at increased forward speeds. I'm inclined to think that while the storm might deepen a little once again, that the dry air will equally mitigate much strengthening. All in all, I think it's prudent for those on the Florida east and northeast coastline to remain vigil for the next 24 hours.

Definitely will be .monitoring this through the night into tomorrow.morning.

[Vdogg]

I just want to give a shout out to the 'new and updated' GFS - It picked up on the N turn E of FL first. Yes it did go back to FL landfall for a while, but I consider this a win for the new GFS - Well Done

Euro actually came back to the gfs on it’s 12z solution. Upgraded gfs may actually win this round. Unfortunately that means far greater impacts for the Carolinas and SEVA.

[chris_fit]

[GTStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/5g1NwJT.png

do you have the coordinates of the forecast positions? Thanks...

[boulderrr]

18Z guidance has moved a bit closer to the SC coast as compared to 12Z:

[ronjon]

Local WRF model - sensing a stronger ridge to its east?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-nmm&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019090312&fh=25

[GTStorm]

Yes, they are still running models....

18z GFS a little slower than 12z but same idea...runs a touch closer to SC / NC coastline.

18z GFS, plus 12z Euro, not good for Charleston on up the coastline.

[MJGarrison]

18Z Euro a little closer.


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[CronkPSU]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/b91f81cd5ab149fe95453c3ef1d7a542.jpg

18Z Euro a little closer.


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ooofff that is gonna be one HARD east turn to miss land on this run

[MJGarrison]

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[Vdogg]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/b91f81cd5ab149fe95453c3ef1d7a542.jpg

18Z Euro a little closer.


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WTH is going on with that point right after 12? Almost doesn’t seem logical.

[GTStorm]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/b91f81cd5ab149fe95453c3ef1d7a542.jpg

18Z Euro a little closer.


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Well now this really has my attention (not that I've been ignoring it)...thanks for providing this data.

[CronkPSU]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/b91f81cd5ab149fe95453c3ef1d7a542.jpg

18Z Euro a little closer.


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WTH is going on with that point right after 12? Almost doesn’t seem logical.

lol I said the same thing...it is like euro is showing off now and trying to predict wobbles

[storm4u]

Anyone got it past hr72 ?

[p1nheadlarry]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190904/ed21739650b60241b803a6040e60fa3f.jpg


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Dorian has avoided land for much of it’s life.

It has become self-aware.