ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PandaCitrus]

Main terminal at Freeport International Airport.

 https://twitter.com/NewsBreaking/status/1168966839969431556

[Bunkertor]

Unexpected drop in shear.
Anti-cyclone back over this.

Where do you see it, GC ?

[GCANE]

Unexpected drop in shear.
Anti-cyclone back over this.

Where do you see it, GC ?

Earth Nullschool

[Nimbus]

Unexpected drop in shear.
Anti-cyclone back over this.

Where do you see it, GC ?

Weak steering currents and low shear just mean a chance for Dorian to reintensify.
Track is almost NNW and far enough from the coast that he could wobble or stall without bringing hurricane force winds to the coast. Models have been showing some wierd track wobbles and loops but of course the official track will be "averaged" for consistency and planning purposes. Maybe the euro is seeing something we aren't but I doubt it.

[Nimbus]

Main terminal at Freeport International Airport.

https://twitter.com/NewsBreaking/status/1168966839969431556

Is that the airport with the X's painted all the way down the runway?
Some of those stilt homes looked pretty rugged and the winds were about what I experienced during Irma (albeit only for a few hours). Locktite PL Black Polyurethane Roof and Flashing Sealant is your friend, maybe Home Depot will donate a case in the relief campaign.

[got ants?]

Reading the arguments of cat 5 winds vs tornado winds, but they appear to not include the "fists of God". Now I personally have not experienced them, I have seen thier aftermath. Imagine if you will, a subdivision of the same model homes, hundreds of them. Then, in the middle of them. 2 or 3 houses completely flattened, and you see this all over.

Fist of God have been explained to me by those that have experienced them as first hearing an F16 fighter jet approaching, then BOOM, an explosion like effect, and just like thsy, it's over. These are tornados within a hurricane. I'm sure a pro met can explain it better, but the assumption that the houses with the worst damage were not properly built may be a fallacy, especially during a cat 5 hurricane.

[Meteorcane]

Reading the arguments of cat 5 winds vs tornado winds, but they appear to not include the "fists of God". Now I personally have not experienced them, I have seen thier aftermath. Imagine if you will, a subdivision of the same model homes, hundreds of them. Then, in the middle of them. 2 or 3 houses completely flattened, and you see this all over.

Fist of Hod have been explained to me by those that have experienced them as first hearing an F16 fighter jet approaching, then BOOM, an explosion like effect, and just like thsy, it's over. These are tornados within a hurricane. I'm sure a pro met can explain it better, but the assumption that the houses with the worst damage were not properly built may be a fallacy, especially during a cat 5 hurricane.

I believe you are referring to eyewall mesovortices.

[GCANE]

Thunderstorms over S FL creating new feeder bands

[got ants?]

Reading the arguments of cat 5 winds vs tornado winds, but they appear to not include the "fists of God". Now I personally have not experienced them, I have seen thier aftermath. Imagine if you will, a subdivision of the same model homes, hundreds of them. Then, in the middle of them. 2 or 3 houses completely flattened, and you see this all over.

Fist of Hod have been explained to me by those that have experienced them as first hearing an F16 fighter jet approaching, then BOOM, an explosion like effect, and just like thsy, it's over. These are tornados within a hurricane. I'm sure a pro met can explain it better, but the assumption that the houses with the worst damage were not properly built may be a fallacy, especially during a cat 5 hurricane.

I believe you are referring to eyewall mesovortices.

Yes. Haven seen the destruction from them after Andrew was/still is, un-nerving.

[Vdogg]

Ring of deep convection growing and edging closer to the Florida coastline. Would not be shocked to see hurricane conditions affect the warning area. NHC made a good call on this.

[Michele B]

Ring of deep convection growing and edging closer to the Florida coastline. Would not be shocked to see hurricane conditions affect the warning area. NHC made a good call on this.

Hurricane warnings up for St. Lucie cty

Don't know where else, just interested in that, since my 93-y/o dad lives there.

[LarryWx]

After not worrying that much the last few days and liking the east trends, the 12Z Euro is kind of worrying me for even here in the SAV area. It comes within 75 miles of SAV now and is getting closer to a Matthew type track. Matthew was about 35 miles from SAV and ~20 miles offshore. It had been as much as 150 miles away yesterday. I didn't expect this shift and hope it goes back.

Was hoping I wouldn't have to use my well inland hotel reservations. Now my hope is lowered somewhat and glad I held into them.

I wonder if his weakening has brought the steering so low that it has gained a sig westerly component vs the higher steering layers.

I'm about 15 miles inland and yesterday's 18Z and today's 0Z Euro had only 2.5" of rain here. The 6Z had 3" and this 12Z run suddenly has 9"!
Earlier Euro runs had only TD type winds. But the 12Z run has solid TS force winds. Not a good trend but hopefully this ends up just a scare and it trends back the other way!!

Because of the geographic advantage of GA vs most of SC, they put GA only in a TS warning whereas to the north and south it is an H warning. If this 12Z Euro trend continues, they may very put GA in an H warning. GA is in a H watch now.

I don’t run from hurricanes knowing I’m nowhere near a surge or flood zone. I’m 8 miles inland. The only time I’d think of taking off is if a situation like what just happened in N Bahamas was possible. Everybody has their own threshold and variables to consider. It would probably make for a very interesting stand alone topic.

I follow you. Luckily, I'm not at all in a flood zone but:
1. I have some tall trees on my lot (tallest are pines). I could handle TS winds. But a H would be scarier and could be dangerous.
2. I don't want to be here if power is going to be out for several days or more thus causing miserable discomfort. Also many roads are going to be blocked with trees, and almost everything is going to be closed for days.
3. It isn't just about me as there are other family members to worry about, including one who's not healthy. Whereas that person doesn't want to leave if at all possible since that in itself would be difficult/painful due to a bad back, staying behind with no power would be worse and then there'd be no easily accessible healthcare here, if needed.
So, if I think we're going to have minimal H conditions like there were here from Matthew, I'd then decide to leave.

[plasticup]

Ring of deep convection growing and edging closer to the Florida coastline. Would not be shocked to see hurricane conditions affect the warning area. NHC made a good call on this.

Honestly, the NHC has been insanely good with this storm. This storm has threaded the needle of their 72 hour forecast, when even a simple 100 mile miss (which is their average in recent years) would have meant a very different storm.

[gailwarning]

Which has been losing the battle with Dorian all morning. It’s already strengthening and the eye is clearing on IR (this is happening far quicker than I thought it would).

yeah I see that it's moving westerly

the dry air that is

This is making me think of the Hydra. If you cut off one of the heads, two grow back in its place. It's as if these storms are living entities. This one does not want to die.

[Stangfriik]

Wow, is that the eye reappearing? It's far to the NE and looks incredibly ragged. Thankfully the weakest Dorian has appeared to date, he's got a lot of work to do to reorganize.

I don't think that's an eye, just a break in the convection.

But if you look at IR it appears that cloud tops are cooling and trying to encircle this dry spot. Are we sure that’s not an eye?

On radar, it seems like it's forming a smaller eye to the east as well

[Vdogg]

Ring of deep convection growing and edging closer to the Florida coastline. Would not be shocked to see hurricane conditions affect the warning area. NHC made a good call on this.

Hurricane warnings up for St. Lucie cty

Don't know where else, just interested in that, since my 93-y/o dad lives there.

Warnings up for most of the peninsula and SC coast.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics ... d_wind.png

[supercane4867]

This is the worst hurricane damage I’ve ever seen in the Atlantic basin

 https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1168971469113761795




 https://twitter.com/traviscc/status/1168936311782367233




 https://twitter.com/traviscc/status/1168935463526309892




 https://twitter.com/jasonnweather/status/1168702535336636421

[aperson]

I don't think that's an eye, just a break in the convection.

But if you look at IR it appears that cloud tops are cooling and trying to encircle this dry spot. Are we sure that’s not an eye?

On radar, it seems like it's forming a smaller eye to the east as well

That is part of the old remnant eye mixing out and it makes me think it may actually close the outer eyewall soon.

[plasticup]

This is the worst hurricane damage I’ve ever seen in the Atlantic basin

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1168971469113761795

https://twitter.com/traviscc/status/1168936311782367233

https://twitter.com/traviscc/status/1168935463526309892

https://twitter.com/jasonnweather/status/1168702535336636421

Almost as bad a Barbuda after Irma, where not a single structure was habitable on the entire island

[southerngreen]

Reading the arguments of cat 5 winds vs tornado winds, but they appear to not include the "fists of God". Now I personally have not experienced them, I have seen thier aftermath. Imagine if you will, a subdivision of the same model homes, hundreds of them. Then, in the middle of them. 2 or 3 houses completely flattened, and you see this all over.

Fist of God have been explained to me by those that have experienced them as first hearing an F16 fighter jet approaching, then BOOM, an explosion like effect, and just like thsy, it's over. These are tornados within a hurricane. I'm sure a pro met can explain it better, but the assumption that the houses with the worst damage were not properly built may be a fallacy, especially during a cat 5 hurricane.

'Fist of God' there was a good bit of research done after Andrew because of this phenomena - and that was the conclusion reached (at least at that time) by the researchers - that there were tornados occurring within the hurricane.