ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Based on the latest recon fixed, in the last 9 hours Dorian has been averaging 4.8 mph, moving NNW at 346 degrees heading.
But in the past 4 hours it has picked up speed a little more speed to near 5.3 mph.

[Vdogg]

Center is east of 11am forecast track (and model guidance).

https://i.ibb.co/DbLGdgX/dorian-radar.png

That core is looking quite healthy...

[socplay02]

Center is east of 11am forecast track (and model guidance).

https://i.ibb.co/DbLGdgX/dorian-radar.png

Do you have a way of showing the actual track with a line? Would be interesting to see if it is arcing or going straight line (assuming that would not be really apparent without 12 or so hours of stills.

[tallywx]

Center is east of 11am forecast track (and model guidance).

https://i.ibb.co/DbLGdgX/dorian-radar.png

Do you have a way of showing the actual track with a line? Would be interesting to see if it is arcing or going straight line (assuming that would not be really apparent without 12 or so hours of stills.

Straight line east of forecast trajectory:

[tallywx]

Center is east of 11am forecast track (and model guidance).

https://i.ibb.co/DbLGdgX/dorian-radar.png

Do you have a way of showing the actual track with a line? Would be interesting to see if it is arcing or going straight line (assuming that would not be really apparent without 12 or so hours of stills.

Straight line east of forecast trajectory:

[CronkPSU]

Center is east of 11am forecast track (and model guidance).

https://i.ibb.co/DbLGdgX/dorian-radar.png

Do you have a way of showing the actual track with a line? Would be interesting to see if it is arcing or going straight line (assuming that would not be really apparent without 12 or so hours of stills.

I use the sfwmd radar and it provides the line for you....it will actually update in about ten minutes and you can see the new path's line show up

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[supercane4867]

Center is east of 11am forecast track (and model guidance).

https://i.ibb.co/DbLGdgX/dorian-radar.png

NHC still shifted forecast track closer to the Carolina coast at 5PM despite the short term motion

[orion]

Visible satellite with KMLB radar overlay and NHC shapefile for 5pm track and cone...

[PandaCitrus]

So on a positive note, BUILDING CODES DO WORK. Homes built within the last few years withstood 185+ MPH Cat 5 winds in Elbow Cay (Hope Town) a few miles east of Marsh Harbour with minimal structural damage.

 https://twitter.com/chm202/status/1168991944938332160

[Nimbus]

So on a positive note, BUILDING CODES DO WORK. Homes built within the last few years withstood 185+ MPH Cat 5 winds in Elbow Cay (Hope Town) a few miles east of Marsh Harbour with minimal structural damage.

https://twitter.com/chm202/status/1168991944938332160

I think one of the most positive notes is that the 10's of thousands of people that live in Freeport didn't receive the 185 mph eyewall winds that destroyed most of Abaco island.

[Meteorcane]

So on a positive note, BUILDING CODES DO WORK. Homes built within the last few years withstood 185+ MPH Cat 5 winds in Elbow Cay (Hope Town) a few miles east of Marsh Harbour with minimal structural damage.

https://twitter.com/chm202/status/1168991944938332160

I think it might be a stretch to call that minimal damage... perhaps on some of the homes, but on the aggregate I would say that photo shows moderate damage (some of the structures have almost complete roof failures) . I will agree it is not the catastrophic damage that we can see in some of those aerial views of older/less-structurally sound buildings.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1168959546041294848

[Kingarabian]

So on a positive note, BUILDING CODES DO WORK. Homes built within the last few years withstood 185+ MPH Cat 5 winds in Elbow Cay (Hope Town) a few miles east of Marsh Harbour with minimal structural damage.

[url]https://twitter.com/chm202/status/1168991944938332160[url]

Agree 100%. Building codes pretty much make the difference in the end. That's why and I hate to say this, but the next time Hawaii gets hit by a Cat.1 or greater hurricane, it will be catastrophic. Our building codes here are terrible.

[jhpigott]

It looks like Dorian is about to throw off a nasty feeder band onto the coast

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Kind of wish we had something like a or reaction option to the devastation photos because saying I “like” them...is not quite the emotion I am trying to convey.

[Jayray10]

Bahamian building code is very robust. Following Andrew they went all in and beefed it up considerably. Miami-Dade followed the Bahamians and modeled their building code off of them. It adds 25%-35% on the cost of a building but those Hope Town pictures show the worth.

[Nasdaq]

 https://twitter.com/CopernicusEMS/status/1168902411118895107

[tolakram]

Appears to be similar to the stadium effect.

live visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=6348&y=5352

floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1011&y=1028

[hurricaneCW]

Levi was probably right about a weaker hurricane heading more westward. Models have all shifted within 20 miles of the Carolina coasts.

[socplay02]

It looks like Dorian is about to throw off a nasty feeder band onto the coast

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

Yeah, just rained the most since I got back to sourh florida around 2 (Wilton Manors technically, basically northern ft lauderdale). Cold rain and wind, but warming back up now. Also possible that the rain got me wet and the wind made me cold, but usually the heat index is so high, I rarely feel cold from the wind in the rain during the summer here.

Is that because the air here is dry or the storm lowers the dew point...or is the same thing basically (relatively dry air and low dewpoint)?