ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdjaguar]

the airport can be cleared and rebuilt by the military very quickly...future US impacts and politics I guess will influence the priority of getting that done

Bahamas are UK
But nice try

Bahamas have been independent for 3 decades

De Jure
De Facto

[chaser1]

Now............. an eye wall on the West side is actually beginning to close off. In what looked like the worlds longest ERC cycle (actually more dry air entrainment induced), we might begin to see some eye contraction and some drop in pressures. Not sure when the planes will be in there but I'm thinking we'll see 4-6 mb pressure drops by midnight.

[eastcoastFL]

Bahamas are UK
But nice try

Bahamas have been independent for 3 decades

I understand that completely but in the past the US has led relief efforts throughout the world

but mods probably just go ahead and delete this post and the others cause we all know it is not going to end well and will take up space and time that could be used for better hurricane discussion purposes

Id be shocked if the U.S. Navy hospital ship isn't on its way

[Steve]

Sucking in tons of dry air to the west and slowly unwinding on radar and IR. This thing will be a naked swirl in a few hours at this rate.

I’m going to have to go ahead and bet against that.

[aperson]

Sucking in tons of dry air to the west and slowly unwinding on radar and IR. This thing will be a naked swirl in a few hours at this rate.

I’m going to have to go ahead and bet against that.

Yeah it'll have marginally more favorable conditions when its fetch from the SE increases but it is by no means improving right now.

[Beachside]

KCOF almost up to sustained TS winds and gusting to 46 kt:

KCOF 032256Z AUTO 36031G42KT 10SM RA FEW006 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 01046/50 DZB01E12DZB13E20RAB20E28RAB40 SLP035 P0002 T02610241

Can you link where you get that data?
I live less than 5 miles from there and would like to be able to monitor.
TIA

[hipshot]

Sucking in tons of dry air to the west and slowly unwinding on radar and IR. This thing will be a naked swirl in a few hours at this rate.

There is nothing from the NHC to indicate that and that is totally irresponsible.

[Steve]

Bahamas are UK
But nice try

Bahamas have been independent for 3 decades

I understand that completely but in the past the US has led relief efforts throughout the world

but mods probably just go ahead and delete this post and the others cause we all know it is not going to end well and will take up space and time that could be used for better hurricane discussion purposes

That’s the good side of America. I’ll be chipping in some donations to the Kingdom as well. Except that the UK is inside out fighting about brexit, Bahamas are still part of The commonwealth. Since politics is banned here, I’ll just say if I was an island nation in 2019, I’d be happy If I was a member of the British Commonwealth.

[birdwomn]

Dorian is kind of a test case of what would happen if a similar Cat 5 hit South Florida. The new construction built within the last 20 years would perform fairly well. Older retrofitted homes would perform somewhat worse but would do alright. But there's a lot of stick built garbage from the 70's and 80's that would look just like South Dade after Andrew. Building codes will determine the damage pattern.

Yep, east side would do well where i live, older florida homes with concrete block and steel reinforced..out west pembroke pines, weston would have big problems in a major

I live in Wilton Manors, and my house was built in 1956. It's concrete, but if you over tighten a tapcon, it just spins. We have a new roof as of two years ago, but I was not sticking around for a strong major in my house.

I rented a car Wed when I saw the ukmet model having it come into ft lauderdale basically...the east turn around PR and what I felt would end up being min a major. with Cat 5 top end potential, and the ukmet having significant runs showing that is what prerequisites resulted in a FLL landfall got me to rent the car. Same time I told my boss I was taking a half day to shutter up Thurs, and we left friday morning.

Had no gas issues or traffic up to southern central GA and by the time we got to Valdosta that night, something like 75% of the gas stations in south florida were out of gas.

I'd make that same choice again everytime if I am able to afford it, especially with a 2.5 year old and a 5 month pregnant wife; I think we got very luck on this one down here...I would love to see the sequence of events that had to go in place to haveus not get a direct hit, because as a Buffalo Bills fan, I feel like it was along the lines of Andy Dalton throwing a touchdown on 4th and long to break a 17 year playoff drought.

Point is, I would likely have waited it out in a newer house, because I saw the slow down forecasted (not quite yet the stall though) before I left Friday morning...I think there are a lot of properties down here that would have trouble in a long duration Cat 4 or 5 (actually getting hit with those substained winds), because there are a lot of houses from the 50s and 60s down here for sure.

This is the perfect example of making your personal plans based on your situation and comfort level. You know your home, neighborhood and situation better than anyone else. Good for you! Glad it ended up being an unplanned "vacation" to a place you may have never wanted to visit.

[Frank2]

South Florida humidity was at steambath levels over the weekend, no doubt due to the nearby hurricane. It's better now, though an hour ago we had what might be the last squall come through this part of Broward County. What's now on the mind of many here is the disaster unfolding 100 miles away. For certain many casulaties will need to be brought here for treatment, or the proper handling of remains.

P.S. Many public and private employers gave employees a well needed day off - also my guess about 25% of the total population evacuated last week and are still returning. Schools will be reopening tomorrow but will not take attendance for kids still unable to return on time.

Frank

[aperson]

Sucking in tons of dry air to the west and slowly unwinding on radar and IR. This thing will be a naked swirl in a few hours at this rate.

There is nothing from the NHC to indicate that and that is totally irresponsible.

You're right, conditions will change and it should quit churning on its upwelled water soon so it won't be doing the same thing for a few hours! Regardless, it will still be a huge surge threat since surge threat decays slower than wind field.

If I add the disclaimer to the end of my post will you quit crying about it and go cry about the ones talking about baseless strengthening when that's not on the NHC forecast and doesn't match what recon is showing either?

[PandaCitrus]

The concrete block homes in South Florida built from the 20's to 60's are actually quite well built. They were built during a time of very prolific Cat 4 hurricanes in South Florida. The 40's particularly were nasty with major hits in West Palm, Ft. Lauderdale and Miami in 1950. Now, concrete has to be maintained. The roof has to be maintained and deferred maintenance would weaken the structure.

Getting a new concrete tile or metal roof (ideal) rated to 175MPH+, hurricane resistant impact windows/doors/garage doors and make sure the stucco/concrete is maintained and those homes are like a nuclear bunker. I'd feel very safe and secure.

But wood stick built homes in South Florida are not safe in Cat 4/5 winds. I don't care what the engineers say. You have Hurricane Andrew as evidence of what happens to stick built homes. Furthermore, the vast majority of two story homes have concrete block on the first floor, and wood/stick construction on the second floor. Bad Combination even in new homes.

Give me a one story ranch concrete bunker any day (assuming you are inland away from the surge zone).

Dorian is kind of a test case of what would happen if a similar Cat 5 hit South Florida. The new construction built within the last 20 years would perform fairly well. Older retrofitted homes would perform somewhat worse but would do alright. But there's a lot of stick built garbage from the 70's and 80's that would look just like South Dade after Andrew. Building codes will determine the damage pattern.

Yep, east side would do well where i live, older florida homes with concrete block and steel reinforced..out west pembroke pines, weston would have big problems in a major

I live in Wilton Manors, and my house was built in 1956. It's concrete, but if you over tighten a tapcon, it just spins. We have a new roof as of two years ago, but I was not sticking around for a strong major in my house.

I rented a car Wed when I saw the ukmet model having it come into ft lauderdale basically...the east turn around PR and what I felt would end up being min a major. with Cat 5 top end potential, and the ukmet having significant runs showing that is what prerequisites resulted in a FLL landfall got me to rent the car. Same time I told my boss I was taking a half day to shutter up Thurs, and we left friday morning.

Had no gas issues or traffic up to southern central GA and by the time we got to Valdosta that night, something like 75% of the gas stations in south florida were out of gas.

I'd make that same choice again everytime if I am able to afford it, especially with a 2.5 year old and a 5 month pregnant wife; I think we got very luck on this one down here...I would love to see the sequence of events that had to go in place to haveus not get a direct hit, because as a Buffalo Bills fan, I feel like it was along the lines of Andy Dalton throwing a touchdown on 4th and long to break a 17 year playoff drought.

Point is, I would likely have waited it out in a newer house, because I saw the slow down forecasted (not quite yet the stall though) before I left Friday morning...I think there are a lot of properties down here that would have trouble in a long duration Cat 4 or 5 (actually getting hit with those substained winds), because there are a lot of houses from the 50s and 60s down here for sure.

[PavelGaborik10]

Sucking in tons of dry air to the west and slowly unwinding on radar and IR. This thing will be a naked swirl in a few hours at this rate.

Yeah, that's not how these storms work.

If anything it actually looks better on radar than it has all day...

[birdwomn]

Beautiful image of the end of the day on Dorian.
https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1169030042795618311

[Vdogg]

Some really interesting inner core changes going on right now via IR Sat: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Looks like a large eye trying to organize. Convection is trying to wrap around it. Not a textbook look, but perhaps the start of a larger storm

There seems to be a battle going on between the warm SSTs and dry air intrusion. It really wants to take off but can’t. Only time will tell who wins.

[got ants?]

Bahamas have been independent for 3 decades

I understand that completely but in the past the US has led relief efforts throughout the world

but mods probably just go ahead and delete this post and the others cause we all know it is not going to end well and will take up space and time that could be used for better hurricane discussion purposes

That’s the good side of America. I’ll be chipping in some donations to the Kingdom as well. Except that the UK is inside out fighting about brexit, Bahamas are still part of The commonwealth. Since politics is banned here, I’ll just say if I was an island nation in 2019, I’d be happy If I was a member of the British Commonwealth.

The Bahamas have been indeoendent since 1973, and thier dollar is tied to the US dollar, for a reason...

[Vdogg]

Sucking in tons of dry air to the west and slowly unwinding on radar and IR. This thing will be a naked swirl in a few hours at this rate.

Extremely doubtful. People have been predicting naked swirl all day. It’s already trying to mix the dry air out. The most likely outcome is a steady state condition until landfall. That, or perhaps even an extra tropical transition with a greatly expanded wind field.

[Steve]

Some really interesting inner core changes going on right now via IR Sat: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Looks like a large eye trying to organize. Convection is trying to wrap around it. Not a textbook look, but perhaps the start of a larger storm

There seems to be a battle going on between the warm SSTs and dry air intrusion. It really wants to take off but can’t. Only time will tell who wins.

Agreed. You can see those colder cloud tops rotating in around the north toward the center as well as that dry slot. I think as long as it’s south of 40N, it will have chances to intensify. Some of the depiction models have shown good organization up around Jacksonville and the GA coast. Maybe it makes a run back for a 3?

[eastcoastFL]

South Florida humidity was at steambath levels over the weekend, no doubt due to the nearby hurricane. It's better now, though an hour ago we had what might be the last squall come through this part of Broward County. What's now on the mind of many here is the disaster unfolding 100 miles away. For certain many casulaties will need to be brought here for treatment, or the proper handling of remains.

P.S. Many public and private employers gave employees a well needed day off - also my guess about 25% of the total population evacuated last week and are still returning. Schools will be reopening tomorrow but will not take attendance for kids still unable to return on time.

Frank

Usually its steaming hot with no power after a storm. The one exception was Wilma. She left and it was freezing cold in the low 50s with no power which wasn't so bad.

[aperson]

Sucking in tons of dry air to the west and slowly unwinding on radar and IR. This thing will be a naked swirl in a few hours at this rate.

Extremely doubtful. People have been predicting naked swirl all day. It’s already trying to mix the dry air out. The most likely outcome is a steady state condition until landfall. That, or perhaps even an extra tropical transition with a greatly expanded wind field.

Its environment is already starting to change. It's pulling in less moisture from the dry slot to the W and starting to get more fetch from the SE. It looks like an eyewall has started back building in the last few frames which is one of the first signs of strengthening I've seen in this system in hours.

Can see the dry, upwelled moisture fetch to the W starting to interacting with the moist fetch from the SE, lots of lightning going up near it:




Can see multiple segments of the eye looking to join up with a gap still in the S side here: