ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vdogg]

Eyewall just closed off on IR. If it can mix the rest of that dry air out we may see some deepening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[CronkPSU]

rain really expanding to the west on the radar...and I can verify in person as we are getting steady rain and wind now

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[bjackrian]

KCOF almost up to sustained TS winds and gusting to 46 kt:

KCOF 032256Z AUTO 36031G42KT 10SM RA FEW006 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 01046/50 DZB01E12DZB13E20RAB20E28RAB40 SLP035 P0002 T02610241

Can you link where you get that data?
I live less than 5 miles from there and would like to be able to monitor.
TIA

I get it here:
https://aviationweather.gov/metar

You can include any airports you want with the four letter airport code (in the US, add a k to the three letter code you probably know). There's an option to decode as well for folks who aren't used to aviation style weather.

[socplay02]

The concrete block homes in South Florida built from the 20's to 60's are actually quite well built. They were built during a time of very prolific Cat 4 hurricanes in South Florida. The 40's particularly were nasty with major hits in West Palm, Ft. Lauderdale and Miami in 1950. Now, concrete has to be maintained. The roof has to be maintained and deferred maintenance would weaken the structure.

Getting a new concrete tile or metal roof (ideal) rated to 175MPH+, hurricane resistant impact windows/doors/garage doors and make sure the stucco/concrete is maintained and those homes are like a nuclear bunker. I'd feel very safe and secure.

But wood stick built homes in South Florida are not safe in Cat 4/5 winds. I don't care what the engineers say. You have Hurricane Andrew as evidence of what happens to stick built homes. Furthermore, the vast majority of two story homes have concrete block on the first floor, and wood/stick construction on the second floor. Bad Combination even in new homes.

Give me a one story ranch concrete bunker any day (assuming you are inland away from the surge zone).

Yep, east side would do well where i live, older florida homes with concrete block and steel reinforced..out west pembroke pines, weston would have big problems in a major

I live in Wilton Manors, and my house was built in 1956. It's concrete, but if you over tighten a tapcon, it just spins. We have a new roof as of two years ago, but I was not sticking around for a strong major in my house.

I rented a car Wed when I saw the ukmet model having it come into ft lauderdale basically...the east turn around PR and what I felt would end up being min a major. with Cat 5 top end potential, and the ukmet having significant runs showing that is what prerequisites resulted in a FLL landfall got me to rent the car. Same time I told my boss I was taking a half day to shutter up Thurs, and we left friday morning.

Had no gas issues or traffic up to southern central GA and by the time we got to Valdosta that night, something like 75% of the gas stations in south florida were out of gas.

I'd make that same choice again everytime if I am able to afford it, especially with a 2.5 year old and a 5 month pregnant wife; I think we got very luck on this one down here...I would love to see the sequence of events that had to go in place to haveus not get a direct hit, because as a Buffalo Bills fan, I feel like it was along the lines of Andy Dalton throwing a touchdown on 4th and long to break a 17 year playoff drought.

Point is, I would likely have waited it out in a newer house, because I saw the slow down forecasted (not quite yet the stall though) before I left Friday morning...I think there are a lot of properties down here that would have trouble in a long duration Cat 4 or 5 (actually getting hit with those substained winds), because there are a lot of houses from the 50s and 60s down here for sure.

Thanks, just learned something...how do you maintain the concrete?

[galaxy401]

Any information from Grand Bahama yet? After seeing the devastation in Abaco, I wonder how it affected the island. Saw from satellite that most of the island is underwater but that's all I know.

Probably get some information soon as Dorian finally moves away from the island.

[Stangfriik]

First decent squall here in Daytona

[aperson]

Recon still indicating gradual weakening, but the NW quadrant seems to have an improved windfield compared to first past to me

[northjaxpro]

Solid shield of rain and squalls on radar, all associated with the outer northwestern quad of Dorian, which extends from Palm Coast southward to West Palm Beach.

Pretty good rain totals are accumulating and most definitely tropical storm force winds embedded in that large area.

[CrazyC83]

Any information from Grand Bahama yet? After seeing the devastation in Abaco, I wonder how it affected the island. Saw from satellite that most of the island is underwater but that's all I know.

Probably get some information soon as Dorian finally moves away from the island.

It's catastrophic. That's all we know. They have only just now been able to do search and rescue since conditions were too dangerous.

[Vdogg]

Recon still indicating gradual weakening, but the NW quadrant seems to have an improved windfield compared to first past to me

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/485132024949112855/618598548921122886/recon_AF309-4005A-DORIAN.png

I don’t understand how the pressure can be rising but the eye closing off and wind field expanding. That’s weird. Also a decent Northwest jog on the last point.

[northjaxpro]

Patrick AFB reported gust to 48 mph in the past half hour in heavy squalls. Vero Beach reported 43 mph gust

[aperson]

I don’t understand how the pressure can be rising but the eye closing off and wind field expanding. That’s weird. Also a decent Northwest jog on the last point.

I maintain that the inner eye structure was still there and intact, it was mostly just not visible due to drying out. Dorian has maintained excellent lower convergence and upper divergence to keep the suction required for its engine going, but its fuel has been worse and worse until recently. SST graphs were showing extensive upwelling in the original fetch, here's what 9 hours of difference did to the moisture source it's just now cutting off (note the extensive upwelling in the "before" one even too):

[hipshot]

I don’t understand how the pressure can be rising but the eye closing off and wind field expanding. That’s weird. Also a decent Northwest jog on the last point.

I maintain that the inner eye structure was still there and intact, it was mostly just not visible due to drying out. Dorian has maintained excellent lower convergence and upper divergence to keep the suction required for its engine going, but its fuel has been worse and worse until recently. SST graphs were showing extensive upwelling in the original fetch, here's what 9 hours of difference did to the moisture source it's just now cutting off (note the extensive upwelling in the "before" one even too):

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/485132024949112855/618601694732877830/190903.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/485132024949112855/618601747824508938/190903.png

I'm missing something, those graphics were for an area in the GOM, not where Dorian is currently located. Did I miss something?

[Steve]

I understand that completely but in the past the US has led relief efforts throughout the world

but mods probably just go ahead and delete this post and the others cause we all know it is not going to end well and will take up space and time that could be used for better hurricane discussion purposes

That’s the good side of America. I’ll be chipping in some donations to the Kingdom as well. Except that the UK is inside out fighting about brexit, Bahamas are still part of The commonwealth. Since politics is banned here, I’ll just say if I was an island nation in 2019, I’d be happy If I was a member of the British Commonwealth.

The Bahamas have been indeoendent since 1973, and thier dollar is tied to the US dollar, for a reason...

They are independent and also a member of the commonwealth. However, having a currency tied to America makes a lot of sense when you are an offshoring country promoting for capital from expats (as well as visitors) from 100 miles away. Nevertheless, correct me if I’m wrong, but are you somehow insinuating they’d have it better being an actual territory or protectorate of the USA in 2019 after getting hit by a Cat 5?

[ronjon]

Buoy 20 miles east of the Cape:

Wind 54 mph sustained, gust 69/mph

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41009&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

[aperson]

I'm missing something, those graphics were for an area in the GOM, not where Dorian is currently located. Did I miss something?

You need to look at where Dorian is pulling its moisture from:





Edit: Although Aric pointed out to me that those SST plots are not very accurate, and that seems to be the case when I compare with buoy obs. So I should probably take less stock in those plots than I've been giving them.

[jlauderdal]

The concrete block homes in South Florida built from the 20's to 60's are actually quite well built. They were built during a time of very prolific Cat 4 hurricanes in South Florida. The 40's particularly were nasty with major hits in West Palm, Ft. Lauderdale and Miami in 1950. Now, concrete has to be maintained. The roof has to be maintained and deferred maintenance would weaken the structure.

Getting a new concrete tile or metal roof (ideal) rated to 175MPH+, hurricane resistant impact windows/doors/garage doors and make sure the stucco/concrete is maintained and those homes are like a nuclear bunker. I'd feel very safe and secure.

But wood stick built homes in South Florida are not safe in Cat 4/5 winds. I don't care what the engineers say. You have Hurricane Andrew as evidence of what happens to stick built homes. Furthermore, the vast majority of two story homes have concrete block on the first floor, and wood/stick construction on the second floor. Bad Combination even in new homes.

Give me a one story ranch concrete bunker any day (assuming you are inland away from the surge zone).

I live in Wilton Manors, and my house was built in 1956. It's concrete, but if you over tighten a tapcon, it just spins. We have a new roof as of two years ago, but I was not sticking around for a strong major in my house.

I rented a car Wed when I saw the ukmet model having it come into ft lauderdale basically...the east turn around PR and what I felt would end up being min a major. with Cat 5 top end potential, and the ukmet having significant runs showing that is what prerequisites resulted in a FLL landfall got me to rent the car. Same time I told my boss I was taking a half day to shutter up Thurs, and we left friday morning.

Had no gas issues or traffic up to southern central GA and by the time we got to Valdosta that night, something like 75% of the gas stations in south florida were out of gas.

I'd make that same choice again everytime if I am able to afford it, especially with a 2.5 year old and a 5 month pregnant wife; I think we got very luck on this one down here...I would love to see the sequence of events that had to go in place to haveus not get a direct hit, because as a Buffalo Bills fan, I feel like it was along the lines of Andy Dalton throwing a touchdown on 4th and long to break a 17 year playoff drought.

Point is, I would likely have waited it out in a newer house, because I saw the slow down forecasted (not quite yet the stall though) before I left Friday morning...I think there are a lot of properties down here that would have trouble in a long duration Cat 4 or 5 (actually getting hit with those substained winds), because there are a lot of houses from the 50s and 60s down here for sure.

Thanks, just learned something...how do you maintain the concrete?

im in a one story concrete bunker, built-in 1966...roof inspector says its good to at least 140, hopefully, we never get close to that...key to keeping the roof on is keeping the wind from getting into the house and lifting the roof off, also make sure you have top notch hurricane straps(get a certified roof inspector)...160+ like in the bahams, no gurantees whenever your was built or with what materials but concrete block has a much better chance

also the two-story houses as the original poster stated are in real jeopardy, that isnt concrete block, 1 or 2 they are probably ok but after that, good luck

[ronjon]

Patrick AFB reported gust to 48 mph in the past half hour in heavy squalls. Vero Beach reported 43 mph gust

Northjax not liking the western model shifts up near JAX. Has there ever been a hurricane hit the city heading N-NW? I can't ever remember a track like that. Not saying it will happen here, but ridging seems to be building west around 30 N.

[floridasun78]

nice rain band over plam beach i going see go all way to south fl it look strongest rain band i seen over fl untill now

[PandaCitrus]

I'm looking at melbourne radar and seems to be taking a more NW rather than NNW job the last hour, perhaps moving quicker too?