Tropical Wave near Cabo Verde Islands (Is INVEST 94L)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF completely fails to develop this system.

[sma10]

Yes, it seems Euro drops development of this, and likes the next system better. GFS completely opposite - GFS likes this system and under develops the trailing one. Still way early

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yes, it seems Euro drops development of this, and likes the next system better. GFS completely opposite - GFS likes this system and under develops the trailing one. Still way early

Climatology speaking this is more likely to develop than not. I definitely don't have a great opinion of the ECMWF when it comes to genesis in the MDR, especially after Dorian.

[AutoPenalti]

Definitely something to monitor as we head into next week.



Edit: it looks like I made a typo with the invest declaration... it’s not Invest 93L

[sma10]

Yeah models are all over the place right now, as expected.

[DelrayDude]

Definitely something to monitor as we head into next week.

https://i.imgur.com/CVAviEt.gif

Edit: it looks like I made a typo with the invest declaration... it’s not Invest 93L

So with that illustration I’m seeing that the future cape storm will likely turn before reaching the eastern Bahamas.

[sma10]

18z GFS is testing to see if the Bahamas has maintained their sense of humor

[hurricaneCW]

I'm deeply concerned about this storm and the following waves after it. Huge pattern change with a broad, developing eastern ridge and WAR pattern likely after Sep 10.

And the dreaded I storm is getting closer.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z GFS is testing to see if the Bahamas has maintained their sense of humor

Here is a closer look. Fortunately we are looking at the 10+ day fantasy range but important to look at anyways








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[WeatherEmperor]

I'm deeply concerned about this storm and the following waves after it. Huge pattern change with a broad, developing eastern ridge and WAR pattern likely after Sep 10.

And the dreaded I storm is getting closer.

The NAO looks like it will be mostly positive in the next 10+ days so maybe that will influence more ridging pattern?




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[Abdullah]

I'm deeply concerned about this storm and the following waves after it. Huge pattern change with a broad, developing eastern ridge and WAR pattern likely after Sep 10.

And the dreaded I storm is getting closer.

The NAO looks like it will be mostly positive in the next 10+ days so maybe that will influence more ridging pattern?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/d3c536e3a7f9acf36a8f65651f5cb577.gif


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Can you explain what the NAO is or link me to a page that explains it, please, right from the beginning? I have no idea what it is at all or how it affects anything that happens, but it seems pretty important.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands within the next
day or so. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[abajan]

Anyone in the Bahamas seeing what the GFS is projecting must surely be at a lost for words. Thankfully, lots can change at such a long range.

[gatorcane]

Quite the west shift in the long-range on the 18Z GFS, also shows another one behind that at a low latitude heading west. Euro has that one also. Looks like the MDR is going to get busy:

[ronjon]

I'm deeply concerned about this storm and the following waves after it. Huge pattern change with a broad, developing eastern ridge and WAR pattern likely after Sep 10.

And the dreaded I storm is getting closer.

The NAO looks like it will be mostly positive in the next 10+ days so maybe that will influence more ridging pattern?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/d3c536e3a7f9acf36a8f65651f5cb577.gif


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Can you explain what the NAO is or link me to a page that explains it, please, right from the beginning? I have no idea what it is at all or how it affects anything that happens, but it seems pretty important.

North Atlantic Oscillation...basically acts as such regarding trofs and high pressure...

A case of positive NAO in the atmosphere. Lower than normal pressures over Greenland and higher than normal pressures over the Atlantic ocean. Bermuda high strong in the SW Atlantic which would tend to steer cyclones toward the US from those forming in the east Atlantic.

The NAO is in a negative phase when both the sub-polar low and the subtropical high are weaker than average. This means more east coast trofs and would tend to steer storms out into the open atlantic before reaching the US.

[WeatherEmperor]

I'm deeply concerned about this storm and the following waves after it. Huge pattern change with a broad, developing eastern ridge and WAR pattern likely after Sep 10.

And the dreaded I storm is getting closer.

The NAO looks like it will be mostly positive in the next 10+ days so maybe that will influence more ridging pattern?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/d3c536e3a7f9acf36a8f65651f5cb577.gif


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Can you explain what the NAO is or link me to a page that explains it, please, right from the beginning? I have no idea what it is at all or how it affects anything that happens, but it seems pretty important.

No problem at all. In a very general sense a positive NAO tends to have more high pressure ridging near the US east coast which could steer hurricanes closer to the US whereas a negative NAO tends to have a weaker high and more troughing near the US east coast which could act to deflect hurricanes away from the US. This is just a general sense of what it does and there are more intricate issues with it. You can check this link below for some good info on NAO though:

https://www.britannica.com/science/Nort ... scillation


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[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1169053266656800768

[hurricaneCW]

Quite the west shift in the long-range on the 18Z GFS, also shows another one behind that at a low latitude heading west. Euro has that one also. Looks like the MDR is going to get busy:

https://i.postimg.cc/cCw7G9n3/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-41.png

Think Euro's confused which one to focus on though there could easily be 2-3 systems out there. At least 1-2 could be long trackers. Busy month coming up.

[jonj2040]

Is this wave currentlyon the coast the one in question?

[Hurricaneman]

Is this wave currentlyon the coast the one in question? https://i.imgur.com/gw6FA2d.png

Yep and this probably will develop and be a long tracker