ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
definite western wobble the last hour or so...gonna be close to see if the Cape gets hurricane force winds if it continues for a bit longer
Last edited by CronkPSU on Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
socplay02 wrote:jlauderdal wrote:Yep, east side would do well where i live, older florida homes with concrete block and steel reinforced..out west pembroke pines, weston would have big problems in a majorPandaCitrus wrote:Dorian is kind of a test case of what would happen if a similar Cat 5 hit South Florida. The new construction built within the last 20 years would perform fairly well. Older retrofitted homes would perform somewhat worse but would do alright. But there's a lot of stick built garbage from the 70's and 80's that would look just like South Dade after Andrew. Building codes will determine the damage pattern.
I live in Wilton Manors, and my house was built in 1956. It's concrete, but if you over tighten a tapcon, it just spins. We have a new roof as of two years ago, but I was not sticking around for a strong major in my house.
I rented a car Wed when I saw the ukmet model having it come into ft lauderdale basically...the east turn around PR and what I felt would end up being min a major. with Cat 5 top end potential, and the ukmet having significant runs showing that is what prerequisites resulted in a FLL landfall got me to rent the car. Same time I told my boss I was taking a half day to shutter up Thurs, and we left friday morning.
Had no gas issues or traffic up to southern central GA and by the time we got to Valdosta that night, something like 75% of the gas stations in south florida were out of gas.
I'd make that same choice again everytime if I am able to afford it, especially with a 2.5 year old and a 5 month pregnant wife; I think we got very luck on this one down here...I would love to see the sequence of events that had to go in place to haveus not get a direct hit, because as a Buffalo Bills fan, I feel like it was along the lines of Andy Dalton throwing a touchdown on 4th and long to break a 17 year playoff drought.
Point is, I would likely have waited it out in a newer house, because I saw the slow down forecasted (not quite yet the stall though) before I left Friday morning...I think there are a lot of properties down here that would have trouble in a long duration Cat 4 or 5 (actually getting hit with those substained winds), because there are a lot of houses from the 50s and 60s down here for sure.
Houses from 50's and 60's had "building codes," too. Compared to other states, due to our propensity to "attract" hurricanes. Maybe not compared to today's standards, but compared to other states, yes, STANDARDS.
However, each time a "bad one" comes through, the codes get stronger. I think the last BIG change came after Andrew.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
CronkPSU wrote:definite western wobble the last hour or so...gonna be close to see if the Cape gets hurricane force winds if it continues for a bit longer
Recon confirmed the NW track trend hopefully it was just a wobble.
The next frontal reinforcement isn't showing up on the Water vapor loop yet but maybe tomorrow. Winds aren't too bad St Lucie still has power but Brevard county up through Flagler all have a couple thousand reported outages. Most of these are probably line slap transformer overloads that can be reset in a few hours.
Surge at the old abandoned runway on the west end of Freeport reached 11 feet so low lying areas up near Jacksonville should be prepared.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Ptarmigan wrote:Since Dorian moved very slowly, I wonder how much rain has fallen. I can imagine a very high total.![]()
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Honestly, I'd speculate there are probably some storm totals in Harvey territory. Wilma '05 dropped some insane rainfall totals when it stalled at its Yucatan landfall. However, I bet that there is no such documentation of such rainfall considering the extreme severity of the wind/surge. Especially the surge. If that has already flooded everything, even 100" of rainfall doesn't really mean all that much.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Dorian is winning the battle once again. Dry slot is filtering out and eye is closed...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Dorian has become one seriously ugly Hurricane. Almost looks like some sort of weird hybrid.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Dorian has become one seriously ugly Hurricane. Almost looks like some sort of weird hybrid.
Telltale upwelling. Especially the dramatically colder tops way out in the outer bands. Rather similar signature to Krosa about a month ago and Trami last year.

Last edited by 1900hurricane on Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Last edited by Tailspin on Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Nimbus wrote:CronkPSU wrote:definite western wobble the last hour or so...gonna be close to see if the Cape gets hurricane force winds if it continues for a bit longer
Recon confirmed the NW track trend hopefully it was just a wobble.
The next frontal reinforcement isn't showing up on the Water vapor loop yet but maybe tomorrow. Winds aren't too bad St Lucie still has power but Brevard county up through Flagler all have a couple thousand reported outages. Most of these are probably line slap transformer overloads that can be reset in a few hours.
Surge at the old abandoned runway on the west end of Freeport reached 11 feet so low lying areas up near Jacksonville should be prepared.
11:00 NHC update says the course is 340 degrees. Sure looks more like about 320 to me, but as others have pointed out, I think it's a bit of an illusion because of the expanding eye
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Dorian has become one seriously ugly Hurricane. Almost looks like some sort of weird hybrid.
I won't really call it "ugly". It's just the typical appearance of a hurricane moving into higher latitudes. The only type of hurricane to be considered as ugly is Barry

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
I have to say, while a storm is potentially going to impact Florida, this page is one of the most informative tropical pages I know of. The posters are generally well informed, if not pro-mets or near pro-mets. But, it gets depressing for those of us that live north of Florida when Florida is no longer a real consideration for the storm. Page counts go from 6-10 an hour down to 2 an hour, if lucky. How can we get more informed posters from the coastal states north of Florida to join and post on the page?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Beachside wrote:Nimbus wrote:CronkPSU wrote:definite western wobble the last hour or so...gonna be close to see if the Cape gets hurricane force winds if it continues for a bit longer
Recon confirmed the NW track trend hopefully it was just a wobble.
The next frontal reinforcement isn't showing up on the Water vapor loop yet but maybe tomorrow. Winds aren't too bad St Lucie still has power but Brevard county up through Flagler all have a couple thousand reported outages. Most of these are probably line slap transformer overloads that can be reset in a few hours.
Surge at the old abandoned runway on the west end of Freeport reached 11 feet so low lying areas up near Jacksonville should be prepared.
11:00 NHC update says the course is 340 degrees. Sure looks more like about 320 to me, but as others have pointed out, I think it's a bit of an illusion because of the expanding eye
Another Recon on the way.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Mandatory evacuation begins at Emerald Isle at 8 a.m. We are hoping for the best.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Nimbus wrote:CronkPSU wrote:definite western wobble the last hour or so...gonna be close to see if the Cape gets hurricane force winds if it continues for a bit longer
Recon confirmed the NW track trend hopefully it was just a wobble.
The next frontal reinforcement isn't showing up on the Water vapor loop yet but maybe tomorrow. Winds aren't too bad St Lucie still has power but Brevard county up through Flagler all have a couple thousand reported outages. Most of these are probably line slap transformer overloads that can be reset in a few hours.
Surge at the old abandoned runway on the west end of Freeport reached 11 feet so low lying areas up near Jacksonville should be prepared.
Jax looking at 3-5 ft.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
emeraldislenc wrote:Mandatory evacuation begins at Emerald Isle at 8 a.m. We are hoping for the best.
We have the same down here on the southern coast of NC. I, unfortunately, know so many people that live on the islands, and are refusing to leave because of how long it took them to get back after Florence. I know the guy that lives at the house with the highest elevation of 14' on Oak Island, but he is probably the only person I am not worried about when it comes to storm surge there. None of the dunes have been rebuilt yet after Florence.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
1900hurricane wrote:Ptarmigan wrote:Since Dorian moved very slowly, I wonder how much rain has fallen. I can imagine a very high total.![]()
![]()
![]()
Honestly, I'd speculate there are probably some storm totals in Harvey territory. Wilma '05 dropped some insane rainfall totals when it stalled at its Yucatan landfall. However, I bet that there is no such documentation of such rainfall considering the extreme severity of the wind/surge. Especially the surge. If that has already flooded everything, even 100" of rainfall doesn't really mean all that much.
Wilma dumped 62 inches of rain in 24 hours. That is the highest not any mountainous area. The total for Wilma is 64 inches. Harvey dumped 70 inches of rain in Texas.
Hurricane Flora dumped over 100 inches of rain, same likely goes with Hurricane Mitch. Flora may have dumped as much as 150 inches of rain.


The highest for Atlantic hurricane is the 1909 Greater Antilles Hurricane, which dumped 135 inches of rain.


Dorian moving at 1 mph and the rule of thumb is 100 divided by forward motion, which would be 100 inches of rain.


Tropical Cyclone Hyacinthe dumped 253.30 inches of rain! A world record.


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Looking at some of the video and pictures coming out of Abaco is pretty incredible when you consider just how strong the building codes are in the Bahamas and it still looks like an atom bomb went off across the entire island.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:I have to say, while a storm is potentially going to impact Florida, this page is one of the most informative tropical pages I know of. The posters are generally well informed, if not pro-mets or near pro-mets. But, it gets depressing for those of us that live north of Florida when Florida is no longer a real consideration for the storm. Page counts go from 6-10 an hour down to 2 an hour, if lucky. How can we get more informed posters from the coastal states north of Florida to join and post on the page?
I understand your frustration and concern. However, Florida is- or soon will be- experiencing hurricane force wind and storm surge. And the storm has recently been wobbling more toward the west. I have family and friends there. Until the storm clears Florida, it's a "consideration." I suspect that when the storm gets closer to you, the activity will pick up.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1169096479040053249
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1169097354600996864
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1169097354600996864
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:I have to say, while a storm is potentially going to impact Florida, this page is one of the most informative tropical pages I know of. The posters are generally well informed, if not pro-mets or near pro-mets. But, it gets depressing for those of us that live north of Florida when Florida is no longer a real consideration for the storm. Page counts go from 6-10 an hour down to 2 an hour, if lucky. How can we get more informed posters from the coastal states north of Florida to join and post on the page?
There are multiple folks from Florida who make regular, useful contributions to the discussion. I rely on their discussions/debates/arguments and the NHC to guide me when I am making decisions. When our Florida peep's posts begin to drop off, I KNOW I am missing out on valuable information I could never find nor interpret on my own. One gets spoiled, I guess.
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