Tropical Wave near Cabo Verde Islands (Is INVEST 94L)

[sma10]

If i told you the 0z GFS takes this new system and stalls it over Abaco ... would you believe me?

[Hurricaneman]

If i told you the 0z GFS takes this new system and stalls it over Abaco ... would you believe me?

I doubt this happens as modeled but if it did it would be like a horror movie except it’s real life

[sma10]

If i told you the 0z GFS takes this new system and stalls it over Abaco ... would you believe me?

I doubt this happens as modeled but if it did it would be like a horror movie except it’s real life

I've seen a LOT of weird stuff modeled over the years, but nothing this eerie. Can't possibly happen, but to see this new system stalling and drifting for 2 days over Abaco and Grand Bahama is sick

[AxaltaRacing24]

If i told you the 0z GFS takes this new system and stalls it over Abaco ... would you believe me?

I doubt this happens as modeled but if it did it would be like a horror movie except it’s real life

It's fantasy range, but to even see that in a model run after what just happened is a sick joke...

[abajan]

If i told you the 0z GFS takes this new system and stalls it over Abaco ... would you believe me?

I doubt this happens as modeled but if it did it would be like a horror movie except it’s real life

I've seen a LOT of weird stuff modeled over the years, but nothing this eerie. Can't possibly happen, but to see this new system stalling and drifting for 2 days over Abaco and Grand Bahama is sick

No, it can possibly happen (just like lightning has been known to strike the same place twice). But probably won't.

EDIT: Good grief - it's track from there is almost identical to Dorian's!

[GCANE]

Looks like it will pick up a really good TPW feed, pretty much all the way to the equator.
Should keep it moist across the MDR - a well protected pouch.

[GCANE]

Looks good at the surface.
Closed off at 850mb

[jlauderdal]

the bermuda high is in place, western flank allows for the curve away from the usa, long ways out but this is a different pattern than we saw with dorian, seems more progressive at least

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

[TheStormExpert]

Good news! 06z GFS looks to drop development so far. Also the Euro still doesn’t develop this.

[SFLcane]

Lol I saw that coming when the euro dropped it yesterday I believe. For now development is not a certainty by any means not much model support as of today.

[cycloneye]

And that is why they did this.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge later today over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic west of Africa. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become mostly conducive for development late this
week, and this system has the potential to become a tropical
depression over the weekend or early next week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[SFLcane]

In all honesty not sure why the models dropped it just never consolidates. Some shear near the islands

[AutoPenalti]

GFS dropped development after going run after run with genesis. Jeez.

[CyclonicFury]

It seems like the reason the Euro dropped this was because it has trended to a much weaker area of vorticity exiting Africa than originally predicted.

[GCANE]

Moving quickly into favorable CCKW conditions.

[jlauderdal]

NHC likes it regardless of the models, environment looks favorable, models will probably come back in the next 24 hours, they have a habit of developing/dropping at long range..islands have to be on the lookout, tough to get one all the way across to the USA but its that time of the year..im taking shutters down today and leaving them stacked up by each window, long way to go in southern florida, October is prime time and we just had a major scare

[StPeteMike]

The inability to turn into a storm until later could also be bad news for the Caribbean and possibly CONUS, less likely to be a FISH storm.

[WeatherEmperor]

NHC likes it regardless of the models, environment looks favorable, models will probably come back in the next 24 hours, they have a habit of developing/dropping at long range..islands have to be on the lookout, tough to get one all the way across to the USA but its that time of the year..im taking shutters down today and leaving them stacked up by each window, long way to go in southern florida, October is prime time and we just had a major scare

Time to get accordian shutters jlauderdal. Roland Steadham would be so dissappointed that you still dont have them yet.


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