ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Steve]

NAM also parallels the coast just offshore all the way to the Outer Banks. Lots of TS action for the coast on that model. The way the radar depicts is that just about to northern SC, onshore bands form (sort of the leading quadrant) all the way into NC. Probably not massive destruction, but that’s the trees down and power outage look.

[Emmett_Brown]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/b91f81cd5ab149fe95453c3ef1d7a542.jpg

18Z Euro a little closer.


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Something to consider for the NE FL coast: Dorian's new eye is pretty large. If the 18Z Euro happens to be right, and the center of Dorian manages to travel W of 80 degrees, the W eye wall may make it on shore

[TheDreamTraveler]

Euro trend west is something to really pay attention to. A few ensembles now have this hitting Florida/Georgia but moreso South Carolina now. I keep thinking back to the HWRF runs that was the only one that saw Dorian dramatically weaken as it has now and with that weakening was able to make landfall.

In the gif it shows how Dorian's tracks have trended slower and farther west.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1169064411308253184

[storm_in_a_teacup]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190904/ed21739650b60241b803a6040e60fa3f.jpg


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Dorian has avoided land for much of it’s life.

It has become self-aware.

This sounds like the start of an SCP object.

[Steejo91]

Anyone have the high resolution EURO plots?

[ROCK]

I always hug the Euro since last year I married one. She seems always to above average correct. I just need to follow het first instinct forecast better.:: idk

[Vdogg]

6z GFS slightly faster, but no change in track.

[PavelGaborik10]

What's going on with the models rapidly deepening Dorian into some sort of massive hybrid System as it heads into Canadian waters? Almost every model has this and it has me scratching my head. I know it's not unusual for pressures to drop a bit as storms transition but this seems incredibly drastic.

[Vdogg]

What's going on with the models rapidly deepening Dorian into some sort of massive hybrid System as it heads into Canadian waters? Almost every model has this and it has me scratching my head. I know it's not unusual for pressures to drop a bit as storms transition but this seems incredibly drastic.

Extratropical transition. It happens with pretty much every major storm that makes it to this latitude. The NHC calls for this too.

Edit: Think Noreaster, which bombs out due to baroclonic forcing. It essentially becomes a cold core storm.

[PavelGaborik10]

What's going on with the models rapidly deepening Dorian into some sort of massive hybrid System as it heads into Canadian waters? Almost every model has this and it has me scratching my head. I know it's not unusual for pressures to drop a bit as storms transition but this seems incredibly drastic.

Extratropical transition. It happens with pretty much every major storm that makes it to this latitude. The NHC calls for this too.

Edit: Think Noreaster, which bombs out due to baroclonic forcing. It essentially becomes a cold core storm.

Right, but tracking countless of these systems off the top of my head I can't remember a tropical System bombing out as it transitions up here quite to the degree models are predicting with Dorian. Extremely impressive deepening, with multiple models bringing the pressure down into the low 950's.

Edit : It could also be just that most of said systems never threaten land, so I may just simply not notice them. Regardless a giant extra-tropical storm with a sub 955 pressure that produces Hurricane forced winds is definitely something not many people have experienced in the Summer before I'm sure.

[Nimbus]

Trough starting to amplify again with dry air digging down the Alabama Mississippi border.
Models may trend back east again tonight?

[USTropics]

What's going on with the models rapidly deepening Dorian into some sort of massive hybrid System as it heads into Canadian waters? Almost every model has this and it has me scratching my head. I know it's not unusual for pressures to drop a bit as storms transition but this seems incredibly drastic.

Extratropical transition. It happens with pretty much every major storm that makes it to this latitude. The NHC calls for this too.

Edit: Think Noreaster, which bombs out due to baroclonic forcing. It essentially becomes a cold core storm.

Right, but tracking countless of these systems off the top of my head I can't remember a tropical System bombing out as it transitions up here quite to the degree models are predicting with Dorian. Extremely impressive deepening, with multiple models bringing the pressure down into the low 950's.

Edit : It could also be just that most of said systems never threaten land, so I may just simply not notice them. Regardless a giant extra-tropical storm with a sub 955 pressure that produces Hurricane forced winds is definitely something not many people have experienced in the Summer before I'm sure.

The background atmospheric pressure at higher latitude is a lot lower then we'd see in the Caribbean/GOM. As Vdogg stated, the transition to extratropical and baroclinic pressure gradient forcing are typical of these high latitude systems, especially transitioning systems.

[tolakram]

The euro 6 hour plots (0z run) puts Wilmington in the eyewall at hour 57 (Friday). aprox 80 to 85 mph forecast winds.

[Vdogg]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/b91f81cd5ab149fe95453c3ef1d7a542.jpg

18Z Euro a little closer.


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WTH is going on with that point right after 12? Almost doesn’t seem logical.

lol I said the same thing...it is like euro is showing off now and trying to predict wobbles

Believe it or not it actually DID wobble east about an hour ago before getting back on track. Incredible prediction right there.

[boulderrr]

Euro stronger at 24 hours... showing 944mb

[HDGator]

Euro stronger at 24 hours... showing 944mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090412/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_2.png

It looks like it stays off the coast at Wilmington and hits the Outer Banks.

[TheDreamTraveler]

After hour 72 on the euro it passes pretty close to Cape Cod and then plows straight into Nova Scotia. Canada has had to retire some hurricane names before. Igor, Juan etc...

[boulderrr]

High res Euro gets down to 942mb at 24 hrs well east of Hilton Head and then begins to weaken as it moves NE. Shows a landfall near Cape Lookout at 47 hours. Looks like more of an impact for Wilmington, Jacksonville, and the Outer Banks than for SC locations.

[Highteeld]

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

[SouthernBreeze]

5PM NOAA Advisory up to 110 - looks like a do or die for Dorian ramping up, thankfully not much time to do it though!