ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[invest man]

The last couple of frames on the satellite really look a lot better. People seem to be taking it pretty seriously here as we found out last year how bad a cat 1 can be when it moves slowly.

Edit: Or maybe it just moved the dry slot from the east side to the west lol.

Looking at sats, it appears like it could be over untapped warmer water of the Gulf Stream which is always a concern. Structure appears better than last night. I would expect a little strengthening maybe back to major status briefly. Hindrance would be proximity to land and forecasted increase shear along with expansion of wind field that would not allow for a spin up. Just a thought and guess. If it was in a time of a strengthening pattern it could get real scary for folks north of ga to the OBX.

[Blinhart]

The last couple of frames on the satellite really look a lot better. People seem to be taking it pretty seriously here as we found out last year how bad a cat 1 can be when it moves slowly.

Edit: Or maybe it just moved the dry slot from the east side to the west lol.

Looking at sats, it appears like it could be over untapped warmer water of the Gulf Stream which is always a concern. Structure appears better than last night. I would expect a little strengthening maybe back to major status briefly. Hindrance would be proximity to land and forecasted increase shear along with expansion of wind field that would not allow for a spin up. Just a thought and guess. If it was in a time of a strengthening pattern it could get real scary for folks north of ga to the OBX.

Or he could tighten back up because of that dry air wall he is hitting, and as we all know the tighter a storm gets, the faster the winds get. With him being over the Gulf Stream and that dry air wall not allowing him to expand more, who knows what he is going to do. I definitely think he has a pretty good chance of getting back up to 120-135.

[GCANE]

Dry air trying to entrain as seen with lots of lightning in the east feeder band.
However, doesn't look like its making its way to the core.
Hot towers firing on the eyewall.
Obviously WISHE over the Gulf Stream is working to counter the dry air.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I have to say, while a storm is potentially going to impact Florida, this page is one of the most informative tropical pages I know of. The posters are generally well informed, if not pro-mets or near pro-mets. But, it gets depressing for those of us that live north of Florida when Florida is no longer a real consideration for the storm. Page counts go from 6-10 an hour down to 2 an hour, if lucky. How can we get more informed posters from the coastal states north of Florida to join and post on the page?

There are multiple folks from Florida who make regular, useful contributions to the discussion. I rely on their discussions/debates/arguments and the NHC to guide me when I am making decisions. When our Florida peep's posts begin to drop off, I KNOW I am missing out on valuable information I could never find nor interpret on my own. One gets spoiled, I guess.

Exactly! they are insightful, and i wish they wouldn't drop out is all I was trying to say.

[Vdogg]

Deep convection is about 3/4 of the way around the eye. One more turn around the bend should just about do it, then we'll see from there.

[AnnularCane]

My fiance just gave my hell...caught me outside in it...also I'm supposed to be at work in about 5 hours. Hey - I've been waiting all night! Mother nature is every bit as majestic as she is terrible. We in central northern FL are getting nothing compared to those in the Bahamas, and so for this reason, I wanted to experience what I could myself instead of simply sleeping through it.

Oh boy...guilty! I never could seem to stay inside during these storms, ill-advised or not. I had evacuated to McComb during Katrina, where we got some pretty good TS-force winds, I believe, and I could NOT keep myself inside for very long. I just had to be out in it, and I had to admit, I loved it.

I wouldn't go out in anything much stronger than that though. I DO have limits!

[Jr0d]

Baroclinic forcing will start playing a role.....

Amazing and humbling to watch the storm go from a Cat 5 purely tropical beast to a 'hybrid' mid latitude beast. That is what my amateur eyes are seeing.

[invest man]

Does anyone know if the planes are still in it or if not when will they be back. Thanks!

[Vdogg]

Baroclinic forcing will start playing a role.....

Amazing and humbling to watch the storm go from a Cat 5 purely tropical beast to a 'hybrid' mid latitude beast. That is what my amateur eyes are seeing.

It's still warm core. Hasn't had time to interact with the front yet, it's just rebuilding it's core. It won't transition until it gets to the higher latitudes past Virginia Beach.

[tropicwatch]

Does anyone know if the planes are still in it or if not when will they be back. Thanks!

They are almost to it now.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is a plane on the way. Its just about there. Also, this air in the core that its mixing out isnt really dry air. Its STABLE air that was drawn up from the cooler SSTs from the upwelling. Cooler water doest have the energy that warmer water has and cant support the kind of convection needed. It is slowly mixing that out now, but a system that has become as broad as Dorian is now will take more time to consolidate.

[Steve]

How much ACE this has produced so far?

39.85. Should cross 42 today I think.

[SoupBone]

Don't know if it's been asked, but how much ACE has Dorian generated and will he get us close to a normal season single handedly?

Steve, you beat me by seconds. Thanks!

[invest man]

Any thoughts on whether they find it stronger? I think it may be a little bit but whether they measure it or not we’ll see!

[GCANE]

This current tower looks like it may close off the eyewall in a tight circle.
Keeping an eye on it

[Vdogg]

Only 6 mph gets this back to low end cat 3. I don't see how this doesn't happen. Dorian has 24 more hours of favorable conditions before shear increases.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its a dragon trying to bite its tail

[b0tzy29]

Big time convection around the core right now. Wouldn't be surprised if this made it back to a major.

[Steve]

Don't know if it's been asked, but how much ACE has Dorian generated and will he get us close to a normal season single handedly?

Steve, you beat me by seconds. Thanks!

I think we hit "normal" for the date on Friday or Saturday. We're up to about 45 ACE on the year which is about the base for the people who said they'd be surprised if we got to 50 ACE this year. In the "indications" thread in Talkin Tropics, I posted that I think we'll be probably near 60 or so weekend after next. As an aside, we are ahead of named storms as the 7th storm would form on average on September 16th (putting us just under 2 weeks ahead of that). I think we're under for made it to hurricanes and probably average for Majors through the date. Below is where we are with averages in parenthesis. It's from CSU which calls it Real Time, but it's actually from 4am Central so about 5 hours behind.

Named Storms 7 (5.7)
Named Storm Days 17.75 (23.5)
Hurricanes 2 (2.3)
Hurricane Days 7 (8.2)
Major Hurricanes 1 (1.0)
Major Hurricane Days 4.0 (2.2)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy 42.8 (38.2)

[NDG]

Looks like Dorian is strengthening a little bit this morning, its outflow is still excellent as it has always had all along.