ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

5 knots of shear
Saturated from water to tropopause

[delta lady]

definite western wobble the last hour or so...gonna be close to see if the Cape gets hurricane force winds if it continues for a bit longer

Recon confirmed the NW track trend hopefully it was just a wobble.
The next frontal reinforcement isn't showing up on the Water vapor loop yet but maybe tomorrow. Winds aren't too bad St Lucie still has power but Brevard county up through Flagler all have a couple thousand reported outages. Most of these are probably line slap transformer overloads that can be reset in a few hours.

Surge at the old abandoned runway on the west end of Freeport reached 11 feet so low lying areas up near Jacksonville should be prepared.

I drove over the Intercoastal waterway into Jacksonville Beach yesterday about 2:30 in the afternoon. In my 50+ years of living in Florida I have never seen it at that height. Something on the order of HOLY CRAP ! Dorian is most assuredly pushing the water out in front of it’s path. The Jax Beach pier that Matthew and Irma damaged was getting pounded. I will not be surprised at all when more of it breaks away.

[USTropics]

Don't know if it's been asked, but how much ACE has Dorian generated and will he get us close to a normal season single handedly?

Steve, you beat me by seconds. Thanks!

The North Atlantic is now at 45.49 ACE for the year (39 is the YTD average - 116%). Average yearly climo from 1981-2010 is 104 ACE. With Dorian currently accounting for ~40 ACE (and rising), that's roughly 39% of an average season's total ACE value.

[plasticup]

Don't know if it's been asked, but how much ACE has Dorian generated and will he get us close to a normal season single handedly?

Steve, you beat me by seconds. Thanks!

Close to 38 units: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2019 ... 05L.Dorian

He will not top a typical season. He will be in the top 20 all time Atlantic ACE-producing storms though.

[gailwarning]

My fiance just gave my hell...caught me outside in it...also I'm supposed to be at work in about 5 hours. Hey - I've been waiting all night! Mother nature is every bit as majestic as she is terrible. We in central northern FL are getting nothing compared to those in the Bahamas, and so for this reason, I wanted to experience what I could myself instead of simply sleeping through it.

Oh boy...guilty! I never could seem to stay inside during these storms, ill-advised or not. I had evacuated to McComb during Katrina, where we got some pretty good TS-force winds, I believe, and I could NOT keep myself inside for very long. I just had to be out in it, and I had to admit, I loved it.

I wouldn't go out in anything much stronger than that though. I DO have limits!

I was able to stand in the alcove of my front door during Wilma. The wind was blowing straight down the street so I felt protected. It was raining so hard I couldn't see the house across the street. It was exhilarating. What irony that something so awe-inspiring can be so deadly. I can't conceive of the devastation in the Bahamas.

[1900hurricane]

Don't know if it's been asked, but how much ACE has Dorian generated and will he get us close to a normal season single handedly?

Steve, you beat me by seconds. Thanks!

Close to 38 units: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2019 ... 05L.Dorian

He will not top a typical season. He will be in the top 20 all time Atlantic ACE-producing storms though.

Here are my counts as of the latest best track update at 12Z.

Month Day Hour V ACE PDI
8 22 12 15 0.0000 0.000000
8 22 18 15 0.0000 0.000000
8 23 0 20 0.0000 0.000000
8 23 6 20 0.0000 0.000000
8 23 12 25 0.0000 0.000000
8 23 18 25 0.0000 0.000000
8 24 0 25 0.0000 0.000000
8 24 6 25 0.0000 0.000000
8 24 12 30 0.0000 0.000000
8 24 18 35 0.1225 0.042875
8 25 0 35 0.1225 0.042875
8 25 6 40 0.1600 0.064000
8 25 12 40 0.1600 0.064000
8 25 18 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 26 0 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 26 6 50 0.2500 0.125000
8 26 12 50 0.2500 0.125000
8 26 18 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 27 0 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 27 6 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 27 12 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 27 18 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 28 0 50 0.2500 0.125000
8 28 6 55 0.3025 0.166375
8 28 12 60 0.3600 0.216000
8 28 18 65 0.4225 0.274625
8 29 0 70 0.4900 0.343000
8 29 6 75 0.5625 0.421875
8 29 12 75 0.5625 0.421875
8 29 18 75 0.5625 0.421875
8 30 0 80 0.6400 0.512000
8 30 6 90 0.8100 0.729000
8 30 12 95 0.9025 0.857375
8 30 18 100 1.0000 1.000000
8 31 0 115 1.3225 1.520875
8 31 6 120 1.4400 1.728000
8 31 12 125 1.5625 1.953125
8 31 18 130 1.6900 2.197000
9 1 0 130 1.6900 2.197000
9 1 6 130 1.6900 2.197000
9 1 12 150 2.2500 3.375000
9 1 18 160 2.5600 4.096000
9 2 0 155 2.4025 3.723875
9 2 6 145 2.1025 3.048625
9 2 12 135 1.8225 2.460375
9 2 18 125 1.5625 1.953125
9 3 0 120 1.4400 1.728000
9 3 6 105 1.1025 1.157625
9 3 12 100 1.0000 1.000000
9 3 18 95 0.9025 0.857375
9 4 0 95 0.9025 0.857375
9 4 6 95 0.9025 0.857375
9 4 12 90 0.8100 0.729000

Des Name Vmax ACE PDI TS Days C1 Days C3 Days C4 Days C5 Days 7.5 Days
05L DORIAN 160 38.5025 44.227375 11.00 7.00 4.00 3.25 1.00 0.50

[Steve]

^^^

1900,

You always have too much time on your hands. Of course I appreciate it.

[1900hurricane]

^^^

1900,

You always have too much time on your hands. Of course I appreciate it.

Heh, I've actually put together a bunch of code that does it all for me now. All I have to do is run it every six hours when best track is updated. Of course, perhaps the time sink is the constant improvement and expansion of that code.

[northjaxpro]

Dorian's eyewall is about 90 miles due east of Palm Coast in Flagler County at this writing. Mostly moving more north now. Dorian will be making his closest approach to the Jax area early this afternoon.

I just checked and for this event thus far, about 1.5 inches so far has fallen here at the home station. We have not received too much with squalls from Dorian. One reason may be the dry aIr which is trying to wrap into Dorian on the western eyewall side, where we are here in Jax. This has really limited thr heavy rain squalls here across the Jax area this morning. Also, the eyewall looks to never cross the 80 degrees Longitude point. This is the benchmark line for Jax area from receiving potential severe effects from the a tŕopical cyclone from the east . Dorian's eyewall looks to pass 90 to 100 miles due east of Jacksonville Beach at his closest approach.

The max gust here at my home so far has been 41 mph from the initial squall that came through around 4 a.m this morning..Sustained winds have been right at around 30 mph with gusts into the mid-high 30s for much of the morning so far.

At the beaches, there have been gusts reported at St. Augustine of wing gust to 60 mph a couple of hours ago.Mayport had reported 48 mph wind gust last hour.

We will get more stronger winds early this afternoon with Dorian's closest approach to Jax, then the wind shift to the west, which will confirm Dorian's eyewall passing us by to our east.

Also monitoring the storm surge situation in the area , especially up in the Camden and Glynn County region of Southeast Georgia and across Northeast Florida, The Saint Marys River, The Intracoastal Waterway basin and The Saint Johns River and its tributaries in the Jax metro area.

More later.

[plasticup]

Don't know if it's been asked, but how much ACE has Dorian generated and will he get us close to a normal season single handedly?

Steve, you beat me by seconds. Thanks!

Close to 38 units: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2019 ... 05L.Dorian

He will not top a typical season. He will be in the top 20 all time Atlantic ACE-producing storms though.

Here are my counts as of the latest best track update at 12Z.

Month Day Hour V ACE PDI
8 22 12 15 0.0000 0.000000
8 22 18 15 0.0000 0.000000
8 23 0 20 0.0000 0.000000
8 23 6 20 0.0000 0.000000
8 23 12 25 0.0000 0.000000
8 23 18 25 0.0000 0.000000
8 24 0 25 0.0000 0.000000
8 24 6 25 0.0000 0.000000
8 24 12 30 0.0000 0.000000
8 24 18 35 0.1225 0.042875
8 25 0 35 0.1225 0.042875
8 25 6 40 0.1600 0.064000
8 25 12 40 0.1600 0.064000
8 25 18 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 26 0 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 26 6 50 0.2500 0.125000
8 26 12 50 0.2500 0.125000
8 26 18 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 27 0 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 27 6 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 27 12 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 27 18 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 28 0 50 0.2500 0.125000
8 28 6 55 0.3025 0.166375
8 28 12 60 0.3600 0.216000
8 28 18 65 0.4225 0.274625
8 29 0 70 0.4900 0.343000
8 29 6 75 0.5625 0.421875
8 29 12 75 0.5625 0.421875
8 29 18 75 0.5625 0.421875
8 30 0 80 0.6400 0.512000
8 30 6 90 0.8100 0.729000
8 30 12 95 0.9025 0.857375
8 30 18 100 1.0000 1.000000
8 31 0 115 1.3225 1.520875
8 31 6 120 1.4400 1.728000
8 31 12 125 1.5625 1.953125
8 31 18 130 1.6900 2.197000
9 1 0 130 1.6900 2.197000
9 1 6 130 1.6900 2.197000
9 1 12 150 2.2500 3.375000
9 1 18 160 2.5600 4.096000
9 2 0 155 2.4025 3.723875
9 2 6 145 2.1025 3.048625
9 2 12 135 1.8225 2.460375
9 2 18 125 1.5625 1.953125
9 3 0 120 1.4400 1.728000
9 3 6 105 1.1025 1.157625
9 3 12 100 1.0000 1.000000
9 3 18 95 0.9025 0.857375
9 4 0 95 0.9025 0.857375
9 4 6 95 0.9025 0.857375
9 4 12 90 0.8100 0.729000

Des Name Vmax ACE PDI TS Days C1 Days C3 Days C4 Days C5 Days 7.5 Days
05L DORIAN 160 38.5025 44.227375 11.00 7.00 4.00 3.25 1.00 0.50

Looks like wikipedia is one notification behind. That's probably the difference.

[LarryWx]

In addition to feeling much better for the GA coast than I felt when that scary way west 18Z Euro was released, if I were living in CHS I’d be much less worried than I was when that 18Z Euro came out. The 10 AM position is the same as it has been for 2 hours, 79.6 W. The longitude of CHS is at 79.9 W. I’m not saying he won’t have one last period of some more west component of motion (if so most likely during a wobble) but he clearly has been struggling to have much west component of motion for the last few hours. All models suggest his longitude as he gets close to SC will be a fair amount east of what it is when it is due east of the FL/GA line. So, the key in my mind for CHS is his longitude once east of the FL/GA border. If it is only west to about 79.9 then, I wouldn’t see CHS getting that bad of a hit. And then IF he is only around, say, 79.7 then, that would be even better news for CHS and probably even a bit further up the SC coast.

[GCANE]

Holding steady
964mb

[toad strangler]

Dorian is barely scraping the FL coast. He is licking the coast.

[supercane4867]

From left to right: Juliette, Fernand, Dorian, 92L, Gabrielle

[northjaxpro]

In addition to feeling much better for the GA coast than I felt when that scary way west 18Z Euro was released, if I were living in CHS I’d be much less worried than I was when that 18Z Euro came out. The 10 AM position is the same as it has been for 2 hours, 79.6 W. The longitude of CHS is at 79.9 W. I’m not saying he won’t have one last period of some more west component of motion (if so most likely during a wobble) but he clearly has been struggling to have much west component of motion for the last few hours. All models suggest his longitude as he gets close to SC will be a fair amount east of what it is when it is due east of the FL/GA line. So, the key in my mind for CHS is his longitude once east of the FL/GA border. If it is only west to about 79.9 then, I wouldn’t see CHS getting that bad of a hit. And then IF he is only around, say, 79.7 then, that would be even better news for CHS and probably even a bit further up the SC coast.

This is looking better for those up in GA/SC coast Larry. Dorian by.all indications, looks to never cross the 80 degrees Longitude line as he gets by the FL/GA Latitude line passing Jax metro area to our by about 100 miles. .In fact he will be curving more northeast by this evening, hopefully far enough away from making landfall away from both the SC and NC coasts .on Thursday.

[1900hurricane]

Close to 38 units: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2019 ... 05L.Dorian

He will not top a typical season. He will be in the top 20 all time Atlantic ACE-producing storms though.

Here are my counts as of the latest best track update at 12Z.

Month Day Hour V ACE PDI
8 22 12 15 0.0000 0.000000
8 22 18 15 0.0000 0.000000
8 23 0 20 0.0000 0.000000
8 23 6 20 0.0000 0.000000
8 23 12 25 0.0000 0.000000
8 23 18 25 0.0000 0.000000
8 24 0 25 0.0000 0.000000
8 24 6 25 0.0000 0.000000
8 24 12 30 0.0000 0.000000
8 24 18 35 0.1225 0.042875
8 25 0 35 0.1225 0.042875
8 25 6 40 0.1600 0.064000
8 25 12 40 0.1600 0.064000
8 25 18 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 26 0 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 26 6 50 0.2500 0.125000
8 26 12 50 0.2500 0.125000
8 26 18 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 27 0 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 27 6 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 27 12 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 27 18 45 0.2025 0.091125
8 28 0 50 0.2500 0.125000
8 28 6 55 0.3025 0.166375
8 28 12 60 0.3600 0.216000
8 28 18 65 0.4225 0.274625
8 29 0 70 0.4900 0.343000
8 29 6 75 0.5625 0.421875
8 29 12 75 0.5625 0.421875
8 29 18 75 0.5625 0.421875
8 30 0 80 0.6400 0.512000
8 30 6 90 0.8100 0.729000
8 30 12 95 0.9025 0.857375
8 30 18 100 1.0000 1.000000
8 31 0 115 1.3225 1.520875
8 31 6 120 1.4400 1.728000
8 31 12 125 1.5625 1.953125
8 31 18 130 1.6900 2.197000
9 1 0 130 1.6900 2.197000
9 1 6 130 1.6900 2.197000
9 1 12 150 2.2500 3.375000
9 1 18 160 2.5600 4.096000
9 2 0 155 2.4025 3.723875
9 2 6 145 2.1025 3.048625
9 2 12 135 1.8225 2.460375
9 2 18 125 1.5625 1.953125
9 3 0 120 1.4400 1.728000
9 3 6 105 1.1025 1.157625
9 3 12 100 1.0000 1.000000
9 3 18 95 0.9025 0.857375
9 4 0 95 0.9025 0.857375
9 4 6 95 0.9025 0.857375
9 4 12 90 0.8100 0.729000

Des Name Vmax ACE PDI TS Days C1 Days C3 Days C4 Days C5 Days 7.5 Days
05L DORIAN 160 38.5025 44.227375 11.00 7.00 4.00 3.25 1.00 0.50

Looks like wikipedia is one notification behind. That's probably the difference.

Wiki is also using Advisory packages instead of best track, so they are offset by three hours. The advisories are also inflexible: once they're given out to the public, they're out and can't be changed. Best track is the official numbers NHC uses internally and can be adjusted based on any new information found.

[Airboy]

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 55 nautical miles

Big and closed eye

[Vdogg]

No higher winds yet, but I found this interesting...

“Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate
vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the
next 48 h. As a result, the hurricane is expected to maintain
Category 2 intensity as it passes near the southeastern United
States coast. After 48 h, increasing shear and dry air entrainment
should cause a weakening trend. Extratropical transition should
begin near the 72 h time, and the cyclone is forecast to become a
hurricane-force extratropical low by 96 h near or over Nova Scotia
and Newfoundland.”

There is nothing holding Dorian back for a whole 48 hours. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t gain at least some intensity based on IR.

[hurricaneCW]

In addition to feeling much better for the GA coast than I felt when that scary way west 18Z Euro was released, if I were living in CHS I’d be much less worried than I was when that 18Z Euro came out. The 10 AM position is the same as it has been for 2 hours, 79.6 W. The longitude of CHS is at 79.9 W. I’m not saying he won’t have one last period of some more west component of motion (if so most likely during a wobble) but he clearly has been struggling to have much west component of motion for the last few hours. All models suggest his longitude as he gets close to SC will be a fair amount east of what it is when it is due east of the FL/GA line. So, the key in my mind for CHS is his longitude once east of the FL/GA border. If it is only west to about 79.9 then, I wouldn’t see CHS getting that bad of a hit. And then IF he is only around, say, 79.7 then, that would be even better news for CHS and probably even a bit further up the SC coast.

This is looking better for those up in GA/SC coast Larry. Dorian by.all indications, looks to never cross the 80 degrees Longitude line as he gets by the FL/GA Latitude line passing Jax metro area to our by about 100 miles. .In fact he will be curving more northeast by this evening, hopefully far enough away from making landfall away from both the SC and NC coasts .on Thursday.

I completely disagree especially regarding SC, he won't need to make landfall to have major impacts. Movement is still to the NW/NNW and he's still expanding.

Surge/flooding impacts will be significant.

[northjaxpro]

Dorian is barely scraping the FL coast. He is licking the coast.

Thank God he is only "licking " us as Dorian passes by as you put it. Once again it appears that the Jax area is going to dodge yet another MAJOR bullet for the most part!!