ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Hurricane warnings are up for all NC coastline

[Steve]

In addition to feeling much better for the GA coast than I felt when that scary way west 18Z Euro was released, if I were living in CHS I’d be much less worried than I was when that 18Z Euro came out. The 10 AM position is the same as it has been for 2 hours, 79.6 W. The longitude of CHS is at 79.9 W. I’m not saying he won’t have one last period of some more west component of motion (if so most likely during a wobble) but he clearly has been struggling to have much west component of motion for the last few hours. All models suggest his longitude as he gets close to SC will be a fair amount east of what it is when it is due east of the FL/GA line. So, the key in my mind for CHS is his longitude once east of the FL/GA border. If it is only west to about 79.9 then, I wouldn’t see CHS getting that bad of a hit. And then IF he is only around, say, 79.7 then, that would be even better news for CHS and probably even a bit further up the SC coast.

This is looking better for those up in GA/SC coast Larry. Dorian by.all indications, looks to never cross the 80 degrees Longitude line as he gets by the FL/GA Latitude line passing Jax metro area to our by about 100 miles. .In fact he will be curving more northeast by this evening, hopefully far enough away from making landfall away from both the SC and NC coasts .on Thursday.

I completely disagree especially regarding SC, he won't need to make landfall to have major impacts. Movement is still to the NW/NNW and he's still expanding.

Surge/flooding impacts will be significant.

The thing is that the SC Coast angles the opposite way than the Florida Coast, so something coming up (even with a dry western side) is more liable to impact there from the South or SSE rather than from the E or SE (impacting Florida) in this particular instance.

[supercane4867]

Looks like the NHC is now predicting a landfall over Cape Hatteras

[northjaxpro]

In addition to feeling much better for the GA coast than I felt when that scary way west 18Z Euro was released, if I were living in CHS I’d be much less worried than I was when that 18Z Euro came out. The 10 AM position is the same as it has been for 2 hours, 79.6 W. The longitude of CHS is at 79.9 W. I’m not saying he won’t have one last period of some more west component of motion (if so most likely during a wobble) but he clearly has been struggling to have much west component of motion for the last few hours. All models suggest his longitude as he gets close to SC will be a fair amount east of what it is when it is due east of the FL/GA line. So, the key in my mind for CHS is his longitude once east of the FL/GA border. If it is only west to about 79.9 then, I wouldn’t see CHS getting that bad of a hit. And then IF he is only around, say, 79.7 then, that would be even better news for CHS and probably even a bit further up the SC coast.

This is looking better for those up in GA/SC coast Larry. Dorian by.all indications, looks to never cross the 80 degrees Longitude line as he gets by the FL/GA Latitude line passing Jax metro area to our by about 100 miles. .In fact he will be curving more northeast by this evening, hopefully far enough away from making landfall away from both the SC and NC coasts .on Thursday.

I completely disagree especially regarding SC, he won't need to make landfall to have major impacts. Movement is still to the NW/NNW and he's still expanding.

Surge/flooding impacts will be significant.

I was talking earlier in that post specifically pertaining to a potential direct landfall. I am not downplaying the other impacts whatsoever, even without landfall.. Hell we are experiencing them here in Jax now with storm surge issues.

Of course Dorian will give major impacts to all along the coast with surge flooding and beach erosion because of its size.

[HDGator]

Dorian is barely scraping the FL coast. He is licking the coast.

Thank God he is only "licking " us as Dorian passes by as you put it. Once again it appears that the Jax area is going to dodge yet another MAJOR bullet for the most part!!

As has all of Florida. This one has been too close for comfort. I really thought the dry air would have knocked him down by now but Dorian is a real survivor - the little engine that could.
He's like the Eveready Energizer bunny; he keeps going and going and going...
It's looking like more of a rain event for the Carolinas now than a wind event.
It doesn't look like it will be another Florence but 10+ inches of rain along the coast with the on-shore wind will be a challenge.

[Raebie]

Dorian is barely scraping the FL coast. He is licking the coast.

Thank God he is only "licking " us as Dorian passes by as you put it. Once again it appears that the Jax area is going to dodge yet another MAJOR bullet for the most part!!

As has all of Florida. This one has been too close for comfort. I really thought the dry air would have knocked him down by now but Dorian is a real survivor - the little engine that could.
He's like the Eveready Energizer bunny; he keeps going and going and going...
It's looking like more of a rain event for the Carolinas now than a wind event.
It doesn't look like it will be another Florence but 10+ inches of rain along the coast with the on-shore wind will be a challenge.

Doesn't the latest Euro run have him coming onshore in Wilmington with 85 MPH winds?

[invest man]

Looks like the NHC is now predicting a landfall over Cape Hatteras

https://i.imgur.com/a8KdGNo.png

Looks to me to be Emerald Isle then in the sounds and exit near Hatteras.

[supercane4867]

Thank God he is only "licking " us as Dorian passes by as you put it. Once again it appears that the Jax area is going to dodge yet another MAJOR bullet for the most part!!

As has all of Florida. This one has been too close for comfort. I really thought the dry air would have knocked him down by now but Dorian is a real survivor - the little engine that could.
He's like the Eveready Energizer bunny; he keeps going and going and going...
It's looking like more of a rain event for the Carolinas now than a wind event.
It doesn't look like it will be another Florence but 10+ inches of rain along the coast with the on-shore wind will be a challenge.

Doesn't the latest Euro run have him coming onshore in Wilmington with 85 MPH winds?

It's really puzzling to me that people here quickly calling off any direct impact on CONUS once the storm clears Florida.

All indications by now point a landfall on the NC coast but it's like no one cares

[Raebie]

As has all of Florida. This one has been too close for comfort. I really thought the dry air would have knocked him down by now but Dorian is a real survivor - the little engine that could.
He's like the Eveready Energizer bunny; he keeps going and going and going...
It's looking like more of a rain event for the Carolinas now than a wind event.
It doesn't look like it will be another Florence but 10+ inches of rain along the coast with the on-shore wind will be a challenge.

Doesn't the latest Euro run have him coming onshore in Wilmington with 85 MPH winds?

It's really puzzling to me that people here quickly calling off any direct impact on CONUS once the storm clears Florida.

All indications by now point a landfall on the NC coast but it's like no one cares

https://i.imgur.com/F7XU35r.jpg

Agree, super frustrating. Guess it's all over for the majority of the country. /s

[northjaxpro]

Dorian is barely scraping the FL coast. He is licking the coast.

Thank God he is only "licking " us as Dorian passes by as you put it. Once again it appears that the Jax area is going to dodge yet another MAJOR bullet for the most part!!

As has all of Florida. This one has been too close for comfort. I really thought the dry air would have knocked him down by now but Dorian is a real survivor - the little engine that could.
He's like the Eveready Energizer bunny; he keeps going and going and going...
It's looking like more of a rain event for the Carolinas now than a wind event.
It doesn't look like it will be another Florence but 10+ inches of rain along the coast with the on-shore wind will be a challenge.

I agree with you. Tbis is what I am seeing that Dorian wll.give a real good glancing blow though. I just pray we do not see another Florence situation.up that way. It looks like that type of situation of sitting stalled thankfully does not look to be in the cards with Dorian as he will easily get picked up with this trough and get out of everyone's hairs.

[Raebie]

Thank God he is only "licking " us as Dorian passes by as you put it. Once again it appears that the Jax area is going to dodge yet another MAJOR bullet for the most part!!

As has all of Florida. This one has been too close for comfort. I really thought the dry air would have knocked him down by now but Dorian is a real survivor - the little engine that could.
He's like the Eveready Energizer bunny; he keeps going and going and going...
It's looking like more of a rain event for the Carolinas now than a wind event.
It doesn't look like it will be another Florence but 10+ inches of rain along the coast with the on-shore wind will be a challenge.

I agree with you. Tbis is what I am seeing that Dorian wll.give a real good glancing blow though. I just pray we do not see another Florence situation.up that way. It looks like that type of situation of sitting stalled thankfully does not look to be in the cards with Dorian as he will easily get picked up with this trough and get out of everyone's hairs.

If the latest Euro had his eyewall coming onshore at Jax with 85 MPH winds, I'm guessing you'd be a little freaked out.

[HDGator]

Thank God he is only "licking " us as Dorian passes by as you put it. Once again it appears that the Jax area is going to dodge yet another MAJOR bullet for the most part!!

As has all of Florida. This one has been too close for comfort. I really thought the dry air would have knocked him down by now but Dorian is a real survivor - the little engine that could.
He's like the Eveready Energizer bunny; he keeps going and going and going...
It's looking like more of a rain event for the Carolinas now than a wind event.
It doesn't look like it will be another Florence but 10+ inches of rain along the coast with the on-shore wind will be a challenge.

Doesn't the latest Euro run have him coming onshore in Wilmington with 85 MPH winds?

The 00z Euro has max 10m wind speed of 69.3mph at Wilmington (Hour 57, 09z Friday) and the 06z GFS has max 10m wind speed of 79.2 off-shore Wilmington (Hour 48, 06z Friday).
These numbers are based on current models published on Weatherbell.
These are still enough winds to cause damage but not the beast that he's been.
I think the water will be more of the challenge.

[toad strangler]

As has all of Florida. This one has been too close for comfort. I really thought the dry air would have knocked him down by now but Dorian is a real survivor - the little engine that could.
He's like the Eveready Energizer bunny; he keeps going and going and going...
It's looking like more of a rain event for the Carolinas now than a wind event.
It doesn't look like it will be another Florence but 10+ inches of rain along the coast with the on-shore wind will be a challenge.

I agree with you. Tbis is what I am seeing that Dorian wll.give a real good glancing blow though. I just pray we do not see another Florence situation.up that way. It looks like that type of situation of sitting stalled thankfully does not look to be in the cards with Dorian as he will easily get picked up with this trough and get out of everyone's hairs.

If the latest Euro had his eyewall coming onshore at Jax with 85 MPH winds, I'm guessing you'd be a little freaked out.

The saving grace (if there is one) is that Dorian will be moving along at a good clip. No stall worries. In and out.

[northjaxpro]

As has all of Florida. This one has been too close for comfort. I really thought the dry air would have knocked him down by now but Dorian is a real survivor - the little engine that could.
He's like the Eveready Energizer bunny; he keeps going and going and going...
It's looking like more of a rain event for the Carolinas now than a wind event.
It doesn't look like it will be another Florence but 10+ inches of rain along the coast with the on-shore wind will be a challenge.

Doesn't the latest Euro run have him coming onshore in Wilmington with 85 MPH winds?

It's really puzzling to me that people here quickly calling off any direct impact on CONUS once the storm clears Florida.

All indications by now point a landfall on the NC coast but it's like no one cares

https://i.imgur.com/F7XU35r.jpg

Wilmington/Hatteras definitely still at seroius risk. I pray that Dorian can safely move enough north and east to miss impact of a direct landfall up across that region. It will be close just like it was down here with approach to Florida. Look, until the official word comes from the NHC that you.are out.of the cone of uncertainty,.of course you stay very vigilant and prepare for the worst. Storm Surge will still be a major issue along the NC Coast, even without a direct landfall.

[1900hurricane]

Pressure is holding steady, but winds are up a little on the latest pass. This suggests that Dorian has more or less stopped weakening and the core may be in the process of resharpening slightly. This is consistent with microwave imagery showing the reestablishment of a single brightness max eyewall band. The core covers a lot of real estate, so I wouldn't expect any significant strengthening, bur I wouldn't be surprised to see winds increase back up to the KZC expected velocities for the 964 mb pressure of about 90 kt, with slight deepening bumping it up to 95-100 kt. Regardless, we're no longer hugging the ~80 kt expected AH77 winds.

[HDGator]

As has all of Florida. This one has been too close for comfort. I really thought the dry air would have knocked him down by now but Dorian is a real survivor - the little engine that could.
He's like the Eveready Energizer bunny; he keeps going and going and going...
It's looking like more of a rain event for the Carolinas now than a wind event.
It doesn't look like it will be another Florence but 10+ inches of rain along the coast with the on-shore wind will be a challenge.

Doesn't the latest Euro run have him coming onshore in Wilmington with 85 MPH winds?

It's really puzzling to me that people here quickly calling off any direct impact on CONUS once the storm clears Florida.

All indications by now point a landfall on the NC coast but it's like no one cares

https://i.imgur.com/F7XU35r.jpg

So that you don't misinterpret my post, I am not dismissing any impacts but rather pointing to the much larger impact of rain and surge from on-shore winds.
The current Euro and GFS is forecasting 15+ inches of rainfall between Savannah and Charleston along with 10+ inches at Wilmington.
This total rainfall coupled with the storm surge poses a very large threat that I am concerned about.
And yes I care; I have family in the area.

[hurricaneCW]

Structure is considerably better than yesterday, nice big eye. Wouldn't be surprised to see a bump up in winds.

[pgoss11]

As has all of Florida. This one has been too close for comfort. I really thought the dry air would have knocked him down by now but Dorian is a real survivor - the little engine that could.
He's like the Eveready Energizer bunny; he keeps going and going and going...
It's looking like more of a rain event for the Carolinas now than a wind event.
It doesn't look like it will be another Florence but 10+ inches of rain along the coast with the on-shore wind will be a challenge.

Doesn't the latest Euro run have him coming onshore in Wilmington with 85 MPH winds?

It's really puzzling to me that people here quickly calling off any direct impact on CONUS once the storm clears Florida.

All indications by now point a landfall on the NC coast but it's like no one cares

https://i.imgur.com/F7XU35r.jpg

Mainly because this board is primarily Florida and Gulf of Mexico posters. I kind of understand when they feel it’s no longer a threat to them that they don’t feel the need to post. My problem with that is there are some very smart hobbyists and meteorologists that post here and people could really use their expertise for any knowledge they could share as it leaves their area.

[supercane4867]

Pressure is holding steady, but winds are up a little on the latest pass. This suggests that Dorian has more or less stopped weakening and the core may be in the process of resharpening slightly. This is consistent with microwave imagery showing the reestablishment of a single brightness max eyewall band. The core covers a lot of real estate, so I wouldn't expect any significant strengthening, bur I wouldn't be surprised to see winds increase back up to the KZC expected velocities for the 964 mb pressure of about 90 kt, with slight deepening bumping it up to 95-100 kt. Regardless, we're no longer hugging the ~80 kt expected AH77 winds.

https://i.imgur.com/40a2XOU.png

https://i.imgur.com/EP6QvS0.png

https://i.imgur.com/iiw0t9u.jpg

This microwave presentation reminds me the WPAC systems after multiple EWRCs. I believe it's quite rare to see a large well defined eyewall like this in the Atlantic

[Highteeld]

Pressure is holding steady, but winds are up a little on the latest pass. This suggests that Dorian has more or less stopped weakening and the core may be in the process of resharpening slightly. This is consistent with microwave imagery showing the reestablishment of a single brightness max eyewall band. The core covers a lot of real estate, so I wouldn't expect any significant strengthening, bur I wouldn't be surprised to see winds increase back up to the KZC expected velocities for the 964 mb pressure of about 90 kt, with slight deepening bumping it up to 95-100 kt. Regardless, we're no longer hugging the ~80 kt expected AH77 winds.

https://i.imgur.com/40a2XOU.png

https://i.imgur.com/EP6QvS0.png

https://i.imgur.com/iiw0t9u.jpg

This microwave presentation reminds me the WPAC systems after multiple EWRCs. I believe it's quite rare to see a large well defined eyewall like this in the Atlantic

Jebi part II