ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

This microwave presentation reminds me the WPAC systems after multiple EWRCs. I believe it's quite rare to see a large well defined eyewall like this in the Atlantic

Jebi part II

Trami is actually the WPac system last year that comes to mind for me. That one also sat for a while and dealt with upwelling and ended up forming a larger and stable/steady core once it began moving again. Of course Trami was even larger than Dorian!

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc2018/WP/WP282018/png/89H-Legacy/201809280016_WP282018_gmi_89H-Legacy_90.0_covg75p2_res1km.png

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc2019/AL/AL052019/png/89H-Legacy/f17/201909041201_AL052019_ssmis_f17_89H-Legacy_90.0_covg100p0_res1km.png

Good point. Forgot about that one -- so many Cat 5's in the WPAC last year they all became a blur, minus Yutu and Manghut.

[supercane4867]

NWS Newport predicting gusts up to 120mph for the Outer Banks

 https://twitter.com/nwsmoreheadcity/status/1169292224791597058

[GCANE]

Couple lightning strikes on the eyewall.
Good sign intensification underway.
The closer the towers move to the center, the warmer the core becomes.

[Airboy]

Pressure looks like it going down again, at least slowly.
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 962.3 mb (28.42 inHg)

[HDGator]

NWS Newport predicting gusts up to 120mph for the Outer Banks

https://twitter.com/nwsmoreheadcity/status/1169292224791597058

That lines up with the current Euro model that has 119mph max 10m gusts on the Outer Banks at 21z Friday.
The current GFS has max 10m gusts on the Outer Banks at 99mph at 15z Friday.

[Nimbus]

Dorian is barely scraping the FL coast. He is licking the coast.

Thank God he is only "licking " us as Dorian passes by as you put it. Once again it appears that the Jax area is going to dodge yet another MAJOR bullet for the most part!!

You still have power in Jacksonville but that feeder band a few hundred yards off the beach probably has some 50 knot winds.

[sponger]

Amazing how close the core of the storm came to the coast. Got to give the new GFS the win! King Euro has a potent rival.

[MGC]

Eye is starting to clear out on sat loop. Look for slow steady intensification. But, I doubt Dorian makes it back to Cat-3. With such a large eye it will be difficult for the winds to increase. Expansive wind field will cause extensive flooding along the coast......MGC

[supercane4867]

Eye is starting to clear out on sat loop. Look for slow steady intensification. But, I doubt Dorian makes it back to Cat-3. With such a large eye it will be difficult for the winds to increase. Expansive wind field will cause extensive flooding along the coast......MGC

Actually I won't be surprised if Dorian somehow makes it back to CAT3 again. Kinda like Wilma after stalling over the Yucatan but still managed to re-intensify while racing to the NE toward FL. Dorian got that similar look as well

[tropicwatch]

Eye is starting to clear out on sat loop. Look for slow steady intensification. But, I doubt Dorian makes it back to Cat-3. With such a large eye it will be difficult for the winds to increase. Expansive wind field will cause extensive flooding along the coast......MGC

The diameter of the eye is down a little. Now only 44 nautical miles, instead of 55

[b0tzy29]

Should this thing start to turn like real soon? Looks like its moving NW at the moment.

[toad strangler]

Eye is starting to clear out on sat loop. Look for slow steady intensification. But, I doubt Dorian makes it back to Cat-3. With such a large eye it will be difficult for the winds to increase. Expansive wind field will cause extensive flooding along the coast......MGC

Actually I won't be surprised if Dorian somehow makes it back to CAT3 again. Kinda like Wilma after stalling over the Yucatan but still managed to re-intensify while racing to the NE toward FL. Dorian got that similar look as well

https://i.imgur.com/MKxm6pC.jpg

eye looks pretty far off the coast in that shot.

[Vdogg]

Should this thing start to turn like real soon? Looks like its moving NW at the moment.

That was predicted. All the models have this storm literally hugging the coast. The turn will come very late. That's why South Carolina has to be wary.

[Vdogg]

Pressure looks like it going down again, at least slowly.
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 962.3 mb (28.42 inHg)

That's 2 mb in 2 hours. Say we have a another 15 hours of good conditions, that gets us down to the 940s if it keeps going that rate. He can definitely hit 3 today.

[GCANE]

[PandaCitrus]

Dorian is looking the best he's looked since leaving the Bahamas. Eye is starting to get more circular and perhaps will clear out within the next few hours. Cold Cloud tops are spreading.

We may have a problem here with re intensification to a Cat 3 as it continues to travel along the warm Gulf Stream waters. Re intensification up to Wilma levels in Florida - Cat 3 125 MPH possible IMO.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I think the storm being so strong and then weakening like this is giving people a false sense of security. Couple that with the uncertainty of how close it gets to the coast. A cat 3 is still nothing to laugh at and anyone on the NC coast especially should be prepared.

[PandaCitrus]

Dorian is basically following the Gulf Stream paralleling 80 Degrees. This water has among the highest heat potential Dorian has had in his entire life. If he can work out his structural issues from stalling over the Bahamas, look out.

[Ken711]

Dorian is basically following the Gulf Stream paralleling 80 Degrees. This water has among the highest heat potential Dorian has had in his entire life. If he can work out his structural issues from stalling over the Bahamas, look out.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2019246at.jpg

But isn't Dorian suppose to start facing more shear as well as it proceeds up the coast?

[PandaCitrus]

NHC said in its discussion there will be near perfect conditions until it gets to North Carolina.