ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheDreamTraveler]

NHC said in its discussion there will be near perfect conditions until it gets to North Carolina.

The only thing that could prevent it from really intensifying is its size. Due to the eye being so big it's going to take a lot longer for it to wind back up before it runs out of time despite the good conditions.

[hurricaneCW]

NHC said in its discussion there will be near perfect conditions until it gets to North Carolina.

And then they'll be a handoff to baroclinic processes as it picks up speed and slams into Nova Scotia, the Euro has an extremely intense storm.

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's definitely looking a lot better the past few hours.

[TheDreamTraveler]

NHC said in its discussion there will be near perfect conditions until it gets to North Carolina.

And then they'll be a handoff to baroclinic processes as it picks up speed and slams into Nova Scotia, the Euro has an extremely intense storm.

Yep. The wind field will only continue to expand as it heads north.

[aperson]

NHC said in its discussion there will be near perfect conditions until it gets to North Carolina.

And then they'll be a handoff to baroclinic processes as it picks up speed and slams into Nova Scotia, the Euro has an extremely intense storm.

Speaking of baroclinic processes, good lord this thing is setting up to look mean in the Canadian maritimes.

[Vdogg]

Dorian is basically following the Gulf Stream paralleling 80 Degrees. This water has among the highest heat potential Dorian has had in his entire life. If he can work out his structural issues from stalling over the Bahamas, look out.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2019246at.jpg

But isn't Dorian suppose to start facing more shear as well as it proceeds up the coast?

Not for 48 hours which is after OBX/Hatteras landfall.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I don't know if anyone has noticed but Invest 92L has a 60% chance of forming now. In the Euro it looks like whatever is left of it gets sucked into Dorian or completely sheared as it moves northeast. But I'm wondering if it getting stronger would keep Dorian closer to the coast as it heads out?

[SunnyThoughts]

Mark Sudduth (hurricanetrack) is traveling to sc/nc and streaming it live on youtube for those interested. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DK_PWi6KJww

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF deepens Dorian to 942mb prior to NC landfall. If Dorian reaches CAT3 strength in the next 24 hours it would be the first major to hit NC for over 20 years since Fran

[HurricaneEnzo]

What's the best graphic for showing dry air? I'm assuming even if some dry air is around with low shear expected Dorian is probably well established enough to fight it off. I don't think a minimal cat 3 is out of the question haven't had one of those since Fran in 96

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[FLpanhandle91]

Dry air in northeast side of the eye or larger eye clearing out?

[Hurricaneman]

This could be a decent threat to eastern New England too but a major threat to Nova Scotia

[FLpanhandle91]

110kt FL winds, but it's flagged. Pressure down to 960.5mb extrapolated.

[aperson]

What's the best graphic for showing dry air? I'm assuming even if some dry air is around with low shear expected Dorian is probably well established enough to fight it off. I don't think a minimal cat 3 is out of the question haven't had one of those since Fran in 96

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I'm a big fan of MIMIC-TPW2: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[supercane4867]

Dry air in northeast side of the eye or larger eye clearing out?

Looks like it's the eye trying to clear out

[Highteeld]

2 110 kt FL wind pegs. slowly consolidating

[hurricaneCW]

The heaviest convection on the west side could help nudge the center a bit further west. Euro has the right idea I think.

[supercane4867]

Recon indicates Dorian may have regained CAT3 intensity based on FL winds. 110kt FL yields 99kt at surface

[ozonepete]

What's the best graphic for showing dry air? I'm assuming even if some dry air is around with low shear expected Dorian is probably well established enough to fight it off. I don't think a minimal cat 3 is out of the question haven't had one of those since Fran in 96

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This is from CIMSS. I always check it first since it shows mid-level (water vapor or wv) dry air which is the most critical. Obviously low-level dry air is bad too. Upper level dry ait doesn't matter much at all. Remember that the orange areas are only moderately dry. It's the red shaded areas that are killer for a TC.

mid-level dry air: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

You can switch from mid to low level dry air with the buttons at top.

[plasticup]

Dry air in northeast side of the eye or larger eye clearing out?

Looks like it's the eye trying to clear out

https://i.imgur.com/5G0RapT.jpg

I think it looks more like a dry slot breaking up the convection.