ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8501 Postby Evenstar » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:03 pm



As a resident of SE VA, I am reminded of a quote from the great Dr. Ian Malcolm of Jurassic Park fame:

"Anybody hear that? It's a, um... It's an impact tremor, that's what it is... I'm fairly alarmed here."
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8502 Postby Highteeld » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:04 pm

xironman wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Looks like Dorian is intensifying. My thoughts below:



You used the W word.


Image
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8503 Postby Vdogg » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:07 pm

Evenstar wrote:


As a resident of SE VA, I am reminded of a quote from the great Dr. Ian Malcolm of Jurassic Park fame:

"Anybody hear that? It's a, um... It's an impact tremor, that's what it is... I'm fairly alarmed here."

I’m in Va. Beach too and literally nobody cares about us. :lol: We barely get mentioned in advisories but we always get hammered when something crosses the Obx. The winds don’t magically stop at the VA/NC border, lol.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8504 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:11 pm

Vdogg wrote:
Evenstar wrote:


As a resident of SE VA, I am reminded of a quote from the great Dr. Ian Malcolm of Jurassic Park fame:

"Anybody hear that? It's a, um... It's an impact tremor, that's what it is... I'm fairly alarmed here."

I’m in Va. Beach too and literally nobody cares about us. :lol: We barely get mentioned in advisories but we always get hammered when something crosses the Obx. The winds don’t magically stop at the VA/NC border, lol.


I hear you. I guess one good thing is that it will be moving through the OBX and out to sea quickly with no stall forecasted.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8505 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:12 pm

Recon finds 959.3 mb less than 5 minutes after NHC publishes 961 mb :lol:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8506 Postby aperson » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:15 pm

plasticup wrote:Recon finds 959.3 mb less than 5 minutes after NHC publishes 961 mb :lol:


NHC will blend changes anyway. The minute to minute intensity updates are for reanalysis. This storm has a deadline before it quits pulling in moist air and then it's up the coast and out of here, so NHC is in no hurry to update intensity for minor fluxes imo. Note that the future strengthening models see after about two days would instead be due to baroclinic enhancement when the system is extratropical.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8507 Postby aperson » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:17 pm

The eye has some of that dvorak +9c shading in it for the first time in a while

Image

Definitely looks like modest consolidation / intensification to me, but background conditions are not going to improve much from here so I'm not expecting RI even though SHIPS does have it on the table.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8508 Postby Evenstar » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:18 pm

Vdogg wrote:
Evenstar wrote:


As a resident of SE VA, I am reminded of a quote from the great Dr. Ian Malcolm of Jurassic Park fame:

"Anybody hear that? It's a, um... It's an impact tremor, that's what it is... I'm fairly alarmed here."

I’m in Va. Beach too and literally nobody cares about us. :lol: We barely get mentioned in advisories but we always get hammered when something crosses the Obx. The winds don’t magically stop at the VA/NC border, lol.


So glad it's not just me. Seriously. We are invisible. Have you ever noticed when media outlets (including TWC) show graphics of a storm, the images often show everything happening south of the VA/NC border, but exclude any reference to Hampton Roads? My personal favorite is when there is some sort of watch or warning that literally STOPS exactly along the VA/NC border. Like VA has some sort of invisible barrier that allows no weather to cross over from the south....

It's bizarre.

Edit: I'm not suggesting nobody talks about us EVER.
Last edited by Evenstar on Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8509 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:19 pm

aperson wrote:The eye has some of that dvorak +9c shading in it for the first time in a while

Definitely looks like modest consolidation / intensification to me, but background conditions are not going to improve much from here.


Well the core completely collapsed causing outflow through the entire system disrupting it completely, as expected with a stall that long. I would check back in 12 hrs to see if it can actually recreate the core.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8510 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:29 pm

Evenstar wrote:
Vdogg wrote:
Evenstar wrote:
As a resident of SE VA, I am reminded of a quote from the great Dr. Ian Malcolm of Jurassic Park fame:

"Anybody hear that? It's a, um... It's an impact tremor, that's what it is... I'm fairly alarmed here."

I’m in Va. Beach too and literally nobody cares about us. :lol: We barely get mentioned in advisories but we always get hammered when something crosses the Obx. The winds don’t magically stop at the VA/NC border, lol.


So glad it's not just me. Seriously. We are invisible. Have you ever noticed when media outlets (including TWC) show graphics of a storm, the images often show everything happening south of the VA/NC border, but exclude any reference to Hampton Roads? My personal favorite is when there is some sort of watch or warning that literally STOPS exactly along the VA/NC border. Like VA has some sort of invisible barrier that allows no weather to cross over from the south....

It's bizarre.

Edit: I'm not suggesting nobody talks about us EVER.


Well, given the angle of the incoming storm it should not produce the kind of surge a 'cane coming from the direct east would, hence the downplaying. Now the tidewater is in a bad place because some stupid meteor plunged into the Atlantic a couple of million years ago and the thing is slowly slipping down into the hole it left. Hence it does not take much to flood the place.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8511 Postby Syx6sic » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:32 pm

Vdogg wrote:
Evenstar wrote:


As a resident of SE VA, I am reminded of a quote from the great Dr. Ian Malcolm of Jurassic Park fame:

"Anybody hear that? It's a, um... It's an impact tremor, that's what it is... I'm fairly alarmed here."

I’m in Va. Beach too and literally nobody cares about us. :lol: We barely get mentioned in advisories but we always get hammered when something crosses the Obx. The winds don’t magically stop at the VA/NC border, lol.



I just moved to va beach from Norfolk so I feel your pain. just wishing for some information about schools so I know what to do with my kids lol.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8512 Postby Highteeld » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:40 pm

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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8513 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:56 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8514 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:56 pm

Highteeld wrote:https://kfor.com/2019/09/04/hurricane-dorian-washes-bricks-of-cocaine-onto-florida-beaches/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_content=5d702cff145a57000153bfb7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1TuRT05SjzUe9lLv-0HKoJXnDqJh-FdBfV5ITdCRze4rnQGEU_H6JaEek

:double: :double: :double:
https://i.imgur.com/kHuob78.png


I've heard of late-season storms moving through the NE like Sandy that occasionally bring some white stuff but this is a first for Florida
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8515 Postby Evenstar » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:59 pm

Syx6sic wrote:
Vdogg wrote:
Evenstar wrote:
As a resident of SE VA, I am reminded of a quote from the great Dr. Ian Malcolm of Jurassic Park fame:

"Anybody hear that? It's a, um... It's an impact tremor, that's what it is... I'm fairly alarmed here."

I’m in Va. Beach too and literally nobody cares about us. :lol: We barely get mentioned in advisories but we always get hammered when something crosses the Obx. The winds don’t magically stop at the VA/NC border, lol.



I just moved to va beach from Norfolk so I feel your pain. just wishing for some information about schools so I know what to do with my kids lol.


WAVY does a pretty good job of providing live updates on closings and delays. I think they've already started doing it on their website. Haven't changed from The Weather Channel in 3 days, so I don't know if they are running it live on air right now! :)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8516 Postby aperson » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:06 pm

Airmass imagery shows dorian starting to feel the effects of the trough overhead. It should lose westward steering and start to get pulled east as the effects of the trough come to dominate the effects of the ridge to the east. Of course tiny variations in the dynamics in this greatly change impacts.

Image
(ref: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... =undefined)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8517 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:07 pm

Eye looks to be about 45 nm in diameter on radar.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8518 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:15 pm

Don’t discount eastern New England with Dorian, wouldn’t be surprised if they put tropical storm watches and warnings up there and the GFS Legacy would even argue for hurricane watches
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8519 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:15 pm

Significant pressure drop.

953.9 mb
(~ 28.17 inHg)

EDIT: I actually think this is suspect; dewpoint/air temps were flagged and this wasn't where the wind shift/lowest winds were either.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8520 Postby aperson » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:17 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Significant pressure drop.

953.9 mb
(~ 28.17 inHg)


That pressure recording did not make sense in the context of the surrounding ones from that HDOB. It looks like it's continuing to strengthen around its normal pace over the last couple of hours which puts it around 958-959 right now. Guess we'll wait and see what the center fix says.
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