2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The NAO is forecast by models to go positive so anything near the Bahamas would most certainly be a threat to the Southeastern US to the GOM so the setup is something that bears watching and don’t be surprised if god forbid the Bahamas get hit again
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Nobody look at the newest GFS. It's cruel.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Nobody look at the newest GFS. It's cruel.
It is indeed
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
cjrciadt wrote:AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Nobody look at the newest GFS. It's cruel.
It is indeed
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 400&fh=384
I am glad it's 384 hours out , won't happen, please!
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The horrible thing was the GFS stalled it the exact same place
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
They really changed the CMC ,it used to form everything
Now it forms nothing.
Now it forms nothing.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GEM is playing the convective feedback game by the looks of it, while Euro has gone back into season cancel mode. Honestly I can't remember seeing the Euro this inconsistent from run to run before.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Hurricaneman wrote:The NAO is forecast by models to go positive so anything near the Bahamas would most certainly be a threat to the Southeastern US to the GOM so the setup is something that bears watching and don’t be surprised if god forbid the Bahamas get hit again
How long is it expected to stay positive?
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Models not developing much in recent runs. Models haven't been showing genesis of systems very well, and they obviously were playing catch up on Dorian's development and intensity, so I don't think they will be as useful until a storm actually forms.
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The ECMWF has been poor with genesis this year, with some phantoms as well as missing storms entirely. It didn't even to acknowledge the wave that became Dorian until about 24 hours prior to genesis. It was also way too strong with Erin, developing it into a strong hurricane.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
DelrayDude wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:The NAO is forecast by models to go positive so anything near the Bahamas would most certainly be a threat to the Southeastern US to the GOM so the setup is something that bears watching and don’t be surprised if god forbid the Bahamas get hit again
How long is it expected to stay positive?
If I am reading the forecast correctly it should be positive for the next 10 days or so
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
CyclonicFury wrote:The ECMWF has been poor with genesis this year, with some phantoms as well as missing storms entirely. It didn't even to acknowledge the wave that became Dorian until about 24 hours prior to genesis. It was also way too strong with Erin, developing it into a strong hurricane.
The Euro has been bad with tropical cyclone genesis in the tropics, not so much in the subtropics though.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Hard for me to accept the latest ECMWF/GFS guidance showing no TC development through mid-September.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Hard for me to accept the latest ECMWF/GFS guidance showing no TC development through mid-September.
1-Suppressed Kelvin wave
2-Lots of shear
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Hard for me to accept the latest ECMWF/GFS guidance showing no TC development through mid-September.
1-Suppressed Kelvin wave
2-Lots of shear
Climatology can and almost always does overcome that in September.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Yeah, there will definitely be storms this month. The shear looks kind of average to me. Keep your tracking charts handy. The models will show development after something develops...
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Remember a 00z GFS run can show nothing for the next 16 days, and then a 06z GFS run can show development occurring within 4-5 days.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Hard for me to accept the latest ECMWF/GFS guidance showing no TC development through mid-September.
1-Suppressed Kelvin wave
2-Lots of shear
EC completely dropped the ball for development the past few weeks. Wasn’t even showing Dorian as a blip 2-3 weeks ago. Not buying the shear and suppressed kelvin wave this time. Dorian taught us all a lesson about that.
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Kingarabian wrote:Remember a 00z GFS run can show nothing for the next 16 days, and then a 06z GFS run can show development occurring within 4-5 days.
Or less.....
This time of year things can change pretty quickly
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
That the models don't show immediate development with these next few AEWs actually concerns me more, typically early development leads to a quicker gain in latitude (e.g. Gabrielle). It means these waves will travel further west before potentially finding a more suitable environment to develop. One thing is for sure, the WAM is now at a dangerous latitude for some waves to track into the Caribbean, with a ton of ammunition coming off the coast in the next few weeks:
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