ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Syx6sic]

I’m in Va. Beach too and literally nobody cares about us. We barely get mentioned in advisories but we always get hammered when something crosses the Obx. The winds don’t magically stop at the VA/NC border, lol.

I just moved to va beach from Norfolk so I feel your pain. just wishing for some information about schools so I know what to do with my kids lol.

WAVY does a pretty good job of providing live updates on closings and delays. I think they've already started doing it on their website. Haven't changed from The Weather Channel in 3 days, so I don't know if they are running it live on air right now!

yes I know they give updates as soon as they get them its the people making the decisions on closing or not are the ones that take their time. I just hope the weather doesn't get that bad before they decide what to do.

[supercane4867]

If the 18z euro verifies, Dorian could bring destructive surge to the outer banks and the sounds. That would be devastating to NC

[aperson]

Comparison of soundings in the W eyewall between 7 hours ago (when it was open on this side) and now

7 hours ago:


Now:

[aperson]

Recon just found 121 kt flight level winds at 750 mb. There is no standard reduction rate from 750 mb, but eyeballing the mean dropsonde wind profile from Franklin, Black, and Valde that gave us the reduction rates we use today gets me about a 0.88 reduction. That's good for about 105 kt, and backs up the 99 kt SFMR. I'd adjust 00Z intensity to 100 kt personally.

I could post this every time but I need to do it every once in a while: Thanks a ton for the knowledge you share on this forum.

[supercane4867]

Looks like recon is turning back to confirm the measurement

[CrazyC83]

I would agree with 100 kt given the data right now. The flight-level winds could even bargain for 105 kt, but this is the first time the SFMR supports major intensity since it has left the Bahamas.

[1900hurricane]

Recon just found 121 kt flight level winds at 750 mb. There is no standard reduction rate from 750 mb, but eyeballing the mean dropsonde wind profile from Franklin, Black, and Valde that gave us the reduction rates we use today gets me about a 0.88 reduction. That's good for about 105 kt, and backs up the 99 kt SFMR. I'd adjust 00Z intensity to 100 kt personally.

I could post this every time but I need to do it every once in a while: Thanks a ton for the knowledge you share on this forum.

No problem at all, just doing what I love!

[supercane4867]

Even dvorak analysis from SAB supports CAT3 now with a T5.5

20190905 | 0001 | ATL | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 30.8 | 79.7 | 960 | 102 kts | 05L | DORIAN | 1 | BZ

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z ATCF up to 100 knots.

Hurricane DORIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 05, 2019:

Location: 31.0°N 79.7°W
Maximum Winds: 100 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 230 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM

[1900hurricane]

Not surprised to see the stronger winds with radar and satellite trends today.

[p1nheadlarry]

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro. With recent recon data it appears that a landfalling major on eastern NC is very likely now

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png

Would be the first in 23 years to the day (Fran, Sep 5 1996)

[AdamFirst]

Good luck to the coastal Carolinas in the path of this storm...Florida may have largely been spared his wrath but they might not be so lucky.

[tolakram]

[supercane4867]

Defiantly a major hurricane now. Impressive outflow on all quads

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Didn't think they'd pull the trigger on a position update so we'll probably have to wait until 11pm.

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
9:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 4
Location: 30.9°N 79.7°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[PavelGaborik10]

https://i.imgur.com/Pcoh704.gif

Opening back up?

[AnnularCane]

Defiantly a major hurricane now. Impressive outflow on all quads

https://i.imgur.com/AFudnGG.gif

https://i.imgur.com/D7RqUJO.gif

I love how in that first map you can see the lights of the cities when it gets dark.

[RL3AO]

The center going west of the Outer Banks would lead to some devastating storm surge. It would give them the eastern eyewall and the strongest on shore winds.

[supercane4867]

Defiantly a major hurricane now. Impressive outflow on all quads

https://i.imgur.com/AFudnGG.gif

https://i.imgur.com/D7RqUJO.gif

I love how in that first map you can see the lights of the cities when it gets dark.

You're welcome. These images can be found here: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &sector=se

[jlauderdal]

How much ACE has this thing produced?