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Emmett_Brown wrote:Yeah, there will definitely be storms this month. The shear looks kind of average to me. Keep your tracking charts handy. The models will show development after something develops...
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Emmett_Brown wrote:Yeah, there will definitely be storms this month. The shear looks kind of average to me. Keep your tracking charts handy. The models will show development after something develops...
Hammy wrote:GFS suddenly seems under the impression hurricane season is over.
Hammy wrote:GFS suddenly seems under the impression hurricane season is over.
USTropics wrote:That the models don't show immediate development with these next few AEWs actually concerns me more, typically early development leads to a quicker gain in latitude (e.g. Gabrielle). It means these waves will travel further west before potentially finding a more suitable environment to develop. One thing is for sure, the WAM is now at a dangerous latitude for some waves to track into the Caribbean, with a ton of ammunition coming off the coast in the next few weeks:
https://i.imgur.com/zAaLau6.jpg
Yeah, I see that. Of course as always the dynamics can change but in that run the setup looks to be a fish, thankfully.N2FSU wrote:0z Euro now has development of wave coming off Africa within 48 hours, then quite aggressive.
otowntiger wrote:Yeah, I see that. Of course as always the dynamics can change but in that run the setup looks to be a fish, thankfully.N2FSU wrote:0z Euro now has development of wave coming off Africa within 48 hours, then quite aggressive.
agreed, as I said the dynamics can change so in reality its too early to pay 'serious' attention to anything that far out, but it is interesting, which of course why I do look at these, like most folks on here, its kind of an obsession.toad strangler wrote:otowntiger wrote:Yeah, I see that. Of course as always the dynamics can change but in that run the setup looks to be a fish, thankfully.N2FSU wrote:0z Euro now has development of wave coming off Africa within 48 hours, then quite aggressive.
Way too far out to pay too much attention to 500mb
Kingarabian wrote:Remember a 00z GFS run can show nothing for the next 16 days, and then a 06z GFS run can show development occurring within 4-5 days.
gatorcane wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Remember a 00z GFS run can show nothing for the next 16 days, and then a 06z GFS run can show development occurring within 4-5 days.
Exactly. Just because a 14 day GFS run shows nothing doesn’t mean much. Look what it showed 14 days out for Dorian. In fact look what it showed just a week out. Think it killed off Dorian over Hispaniola.
Lead time might only be 5 days or less with the models. Seems the models have been tweaked to go conservative on genesis in the long-range.
AtlanticWind wrote:gatorcane wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Remember a 00z GFS run can show nothing for the next 16 days, and then a 06z GFS run can show development occurring within 4-5 days.
Exactly. Just because a 14 day GFS run shows nothing doesn’t mean much. Look what it showed 14 days out for Dorian. In fact look what it showed just a week out. Think it killed off Dorian over Hispaniola.
Lead time might only be 5 days or less with the models. Seems the models have been tweaked to go conservative on genesis in the long-range.
I agree , the models are very conservative on development this year .
It makes it hard to truly judge the potential for disturbances
Have to trust the NHC on their percentages.
LarryWx wrote:Fwiw, although the 12Z Euro doesn't develop it, the 12Z EPS has a fairly strong signal for what I think is the wave FOLLOWING 94L with very roughly 50% of the ~51 members having a TC genesis though most don't form til the vicinity of the Antilles or Bahamas days 11-14. Most of these then recurve between the US east coast and Bermuda. Regardless of the suggested track, this may very well eventually be an additional threat in the western basin. We'll see.
This wave is currently still over Africa and it will reach the ocean in a couple of days.
gatorcane wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Remember a 00z GFS run can show nothing for the next 16 days, and then a 06z GFS run can show development occurring within 4-5 days.
Exactly. Just because a 14 day GFS run shows nothing doesn’t mean much. Look what it showed 14 days out for Dorian. In fact look what it showed just a week out. Think it killed off Dorian over Hispaniola.
Kazmit wrote:GFS takes the wave behind 94L to a cat 4 south of Bermuda.
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